Wildfires are systemic reliability challenge that requires high-resolution environmental planning to stay ahead of stay ahead of both the flames and the financial risk.
Hotter temperatures and longer dry seasons pull moisture out of vegetation, leaving entire regions covered with fuel. And heavier rains often trigger explosive growth in grasses and underbrush that become tomorrow’s ignition beds.
On top of that, climate change is supercharging the atmosphere. Lightning is the source of only 15% of wildfires, but 60% of acres burned. Lightning increase with temperature (increases by roughly 12% for every 1°C of warming) and solar winds. (Did you see the aurora borealis last night?)
More lightning translates directly into more ignitions. Fortunately, these are often in places without significant economic impact. Locations that are difficult to reach, regardless of the size of the fire, are not where large numbers of people work or reside. Lightening ignitions in higher population areas are typically put out before they are more than 5 acres.
Nevertheless, for distribution companies and grid operators, the higher fuel loads create a double exposure:
Grid assets can cause wildfires, especially in high-wind, low-humidity conditions. It is estimated that 50% of all wildfires with $1B+ in losses are caused by utility equipment.
Grid assets are increasingly damaged by wildfires, disrupting service, destroying equipment, and driving up capital replacement costs.
A recent article by Dej Knuckey in RTO Insider, highlighted not just the wildfire fuel risk, but how awareness of this risk is entering popular culture through shows like The Lost Bus (AppleTV+). She goes on the discuss how grid operators are facing a negative feedback loop from investors. As wildfire seasons expand and damages climb, legal exposure, insurance gaps, and credit-rating pressures increasingly influence operational decisions — in some cases more than the physical risk itself.
The path forward for utilities isn’t just about hardening equipment or expanding vegetation work. It’s about anticipating where large economic losses, with the help of firms like Charles River and Copperleaf who use data from Athena Intelligence, to align mitigation, capital planning, and operational decisions with those insights.