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Plan to Zero (#26) Time for a real plan

The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as it is done in most places today is a relic of another era, one that ended about 20 years ago.

IRP’s are used to determine what can be built in a state – typically both generation and transmission. They are massive dockets at the state commission that typically are done every 5 to 10 years. It is THE key regulatory docket to what is allowed.

IRP’s are based on determining where the capacity the utility needs is coming from and they are typically done based on summer peak, after all summer peak is the largest load of the season and all resources can be scheduled 24/365 right? See different era! Today it is not about just capacity but energy too.

IRP’s must change:

(1)  They need to examine 7 time periods of the year minimum:
a.      Summer peak day – A time where solar is likely going to be highly useful

b.     Summer peak night – solar is taking a nap and not offering help

c.      Winter peak day – solar provides some assistance, but not what it does in the summer

d.     Winter peak night – nap time for solar

e.     A very nice spring day – Solar is at its maximum output, and very useful, likely too useful and curtailed

f.       Minimum system load during daylight hours – when there is very little load to support “must run” generation

g.      An extreme day (polar vortex, heat dome, etc.) that exists in the area and the impacts on all types of generation must be used in the estimation.

(2)  Storage needs to be included in the mix with demand response (DR) and energy efficiency (EE). Realistic numbers need to be developed for DR and EE, and programs defined in the IRP

(3)  Realistic estimates, based on retirements in surrounding states of available power to import must be made. Including the capability for the transmission system to move that energy when it is already pushing 80 degrees C for conductor temperature.

Until IRP’s take all of this into account, they are academic exercises that put the ratepayers and the system at risk.