Follow up to the ongoing 'Plan to Zero' articles:
- Plan to Zero
- Plan to Zero - Stop! Don't Do That!
- Plan to Zero - Nega-Watts!
- Plan to Zero - Baseload
- Plan to Zero - Made in the USA
This post is out of my original planned order, but the events of the last week make it more relevant.
With the return of rolling blackouts, industrial shedding, pleas to turn off Christmas light and turn down thermostats - the energy transition has taken another major hit in the media, and with people who don’t see climate as an immediate threat.
People argue that before the year 2000 that bomb cyclones and polar vortexes did not exist, that these are new climate changes, but the real answer is they used to be called “Alberta Clippers” and they have existed for decades to millennia.
To keep the transition alive several things should be carefully considered:
1) Retaining retired coal, gas, and other fossil plants in running order (and with coal and fuel oil retaining 5 days of fuel on site), with standby contracts with the grid operator. Yes, it adds cost, but it also adds a measure of reliability and resiliency that does not appear to exist today in the electric system.
2) Moving back 30 years to a cost-of-service model for market prices, dumping the market clearing price mechanism. This means that each plant runs at and is paid at its cost-of-service price, not the market clearing price.
3) Moving capacity payments to a monthly value and payment.
4) Making it a requirement that all generation facilities over 100 kW are firm facilities with a 24-hour firm rating, 4 firm ratings should exist – summer, spring, fall, and winter. Firm ratings will be determined by math in year one and two, after that it will be by actual performance
5) Integrated Resource Plans should include a “December 21”, “Polar Vortex”, and “Heat Dome” scenarios.
a. Plans are not accepted if those 3 scenarios can’t be passed with less than 5% imports.
b. Plans should not be accepted if they contain resources that do not exist, and are not in the interconnection queue, at least for the first decade.
c. States should run a preliminary state-wide IRP to get agreements on what is expected of each utility and retailer (in states with retailers).
d. Independent System Operators should have a voice in the IRP process, are the interstate expectations reasonable.
6) States should require each local and county unit of government to have 24/7 plans for warming shelters, not just the typical “go to the mall” or “go to the library” their hours are…! Getting kicked out into the cold when you heat fails at 9PM is life threatening.
7) FERC, NERC and the ISO should all work to return to a 15% margin of firm power.
8) Automated breakers, and other switches should be installed everywhere, so rolling blackouts are spread as widely as possible.
9) No one should rush to shut down and demolish any energy generating facility, rather it CANNOT be shut down until it is proven that it has been fully replaced by other sources.
Keep the power on, people alive, and they will support the transition.