Wed, Oct 14

Why do LCOE figures for the same technology differ so much between the IEA and Lazard?

People often compare LCOE figures (levelized cost of electricity) from different sources as if they measure the same thing, but they don’t, and that’s a big part of why wildly different numbers circulate for the same technology.

There are three common methods: (i) Simple annuity LCOE: capex annualized with a capital recovery factor, plus O&M and fuel, divided by annual output. This is what most public calculators use. (ii) Economic DCF LCOE (IEA/NEA style): discounts the actual year-by-year cost and generation streams, including construction time, at a single real discount rate. (iii) Investor break-even tariff (project-finance style): the price the plant must earn to meet equity return targets after debt service and tax.

I built a calculator that runs all three on the same inputs so you can compare them.

What the tool does:

  • Takes one set of inputs (capex, capacity factor, O&M, fuel, carbon price, financing) and computes the LCOE by each method

  • European technology presets with low- and high-cost scenarios

  • Shows which cost component drives the result

  • EUR, USD or CAD

  • Every scenario is stored in the URL, so you can share or cite the exact run

  • Formulas and conventions are in a full technical manual

If you are interested on testing it, you find the LCOE calculator and the corresponding documentation here.

Best

Giada | Raw Science

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