China’s Oil Production Outlook: Stability Through Strategic Offshore Growth
By Alexander Fernandez
China remains a key player in global oil markets, maintaining a stable liquids supply through a strategic mix of mature onshore fields and expanding offshore developments. This article explores current production dynamics and provides a forward-looking view through 2026, highlighting significant upstream projects and the role of national oil companies in sustaining output.
Current Production Overview
In January, China’s total liquids production increased by 53 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) month-on-month (m-o-m), averaging 4.6 million barrels per day (mb/d). However, production remained 24 tb/d lower on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis.
Crude oil production rose to 4.4 mb/d in January—up 76 tb/d from December—marking no change compared to January 2024. Natural gas liquids (NGL) production declined slightly, averaging 23 tb/d, down 5 tb/d m-o-m and y-o-y.
2025 Outlook: Stability Anchored in Offshore Investment
China’s liquids supply is forecast to remain flat in 2025, averaging 4.6 mb/d. While onshore fields continue to mature, output stability will be supported by ongoing offshore developments and recovery-enhancing technologies.
Key growth drivers include:
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Infill drilling and Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) in legacy fields
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New and expanding projects led by national oil companies
Notable 2025 Project Developments:
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Songliao, Kenli 10-2, Shengli, Liaodong Bay West, Peng Lai 19-9, Tianjin, and Wenchang 9-7
These developments are primarily driven by China’s national oil companies—CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec. Production ramp-ups are also expected from ongoing operations at Shengli, Xibei, Jilin, Peng Lai 19-3, and Tarim.
In February, CNOOC commenced production at the Bozhong 26-6 oilfield, reinforcing offshore momentum and signaling further investment in marginal field development.
2026 Outlook: Offshore Continues to Lead
Liquids production is expected to remain stable at 4.6 mb/d through 2026. Offshore basins will again lead the way in new capacity additions, offsetting natural decline elsewhere.
Key Offshore Startups in 2026:
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Jinzhou 25-1 and 25-3 (Tianjin)
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Weizhou 11-4 and 11-12 (Zhanjiang)
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Jinxian JX1-1 (Tianjin)
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Wenchang 16-2 (Zhanjiang)
Additional developments in the Liaohe and Jianghan basins will supplement this growth. These projects will be operated by CNOOC, Sinopec, and PetroChina—further solidifying the role of state-owned enterprises in ensuring supply continuity.
Conclusion
Despite plateauing production, China’s upstream strategy emphasizes output stability through a combination of:
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Offshore expansion
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Infill drilling in mature fields
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Enhanced recovery methods
With national oil companies at the helm, China is well-positioned to manage decline rates and preserve liquids supply through at least 2026. The sustained investment in offshore assets and mature basin redevelopment underscores the country’s commitment to long-term energy security and upstream resilience.