I see post after post about LCOE and LCOC. Most of the people that post seem to not understand generation economics and also seem to never read and process the assumptions in the supporting documents. Then they get angry when they are called out.
My favorite is capacity factor:
- Onshore wind 55% (p.34)
-Off shore wind 45-55% (p36)
- Utility scale solar 15-30% (p35)
-Geothermal 80-90% (p36)
-Gas peakers 10-15% (p38)
-Nuclear 89-92% (p38)
-Coal 65-85% (p38)
-Gas Combined Cycle 3-80% (p38)
I note that for operating plants that are coal, gas, and nuclear, the existing plants have higher capacity factors then the new builds listed above. (p39)
What I find interesting is:
Geothermal has a higher capacity factor than either a coal or combined cycle gas plant (who knew) - Not the EIA nor the IEA.
Onshore new wind is 55%, show me where, in many nations the 38% and better locations are already taken, and developers are looking at 32-36% locations with glee.
Solar at 30% - only in about 2% of the US, most of that in the Southwestern desert. In much of the mid-west a 13-16% capacity factor is the norm, and in some cloudy portions of the Southeast, a 14% capacity factor is a reason to jump for joy.
No people who don't read the assumptions don't get the issues with LCOE. People who don't have the ability to process the assumptions, will not understand this post (I am sorry).
Fuel prices, heat rates, O&M costs and other assumptions are just as wacky as the capacity factors.
Then there is the whole idea that renewables are not firm, and firming costs are not included in the numbers, so you compare non-firm assets (wind) with firm assets (gas).
Finally the costs for renewables all contain the federal subsidies, not the unsubsidized costs.
Finally LCOE does not take into account the useful life of the asset, so you are comparing a 10 year asset in some cases to a 100 year asset.
Still believe LCOE?
We can work the math together for Solar+Storage for the location you live in vs. Nuclear (OBTW the only Nuclear costs are based on Vogtle).