EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The week of February 6–13, 2026, featured continued momentum from the February 4 Critical Minerals Ministerial, with follow-up analysis emphasizing the launch of the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) and 11 new bilateral frameworks/MOUs as key steps in multilateral “friend-shoring.” Project Vault ($12B stockpile, $10B EXIM + private funds) gained further traction amid warnings of U.S. vulnerability (”one crisis away” from shortages). China responded with signals of tighter oversight, including a March briefing on rare earth/dual-use export controls and Premier Li Qiang’s emphasis on consolidating dominance in heavy rare earths.
Markets: Lithium carbonate eased to ~143,750 CNY/T (down ~11% MoM from January highs but up ~88% YoY); cobalt held steady at ~$56,290/T amid deficit outlook; nickel remained volatile in $17,000–$18,000/T range. Domestic stocks (e.g., USA Rare Earth) showed mixed reactions to policy signals, with surges earlier in the week giving way to volatility on tariff/price floor discussions. China’s ~70–90% processing control persists as the core challenge, but allied coordination and stockpiling provide growing structural buffers for 2026–2030.
Rare earth prices remain elevated and firming in mid-February, driven by strategic demand (EVs, magnets, defense), supply tightness, and geopolitical factors. Light REEs (e.g., NdPr) show strong rallies, while heavy REEs (e.g., Dy, Tb) exhibit extreme premiums in non-Chinese markets due to China’s dominance.
LEGISLATIVE, REGULATORY, AND JUDICIAL SECTION
This section briefs recent developments in REE/critical minerals across legislative (bills/Congress), regulatory (executive/agency actions), and judicial sectors. Focus this week is on House-passed bills advancing supply chain security and domestic production, ongoing Section 232 implementation, and EXIM financing milestones. No major judicial decisions or court cases on REEs emerged in February 2026.
House Passes H.R. 3617, Securing America’s Critical Minerals Supply Act
energycommerce.house.gov — February 11, 2026
Summary: The House passed bipartisan H.R. 3617, requiring the Department of Energy to assess vulnerabilities in critical energy resource supply chains (including rare earth elements and critical minerals), identify disruptions from adversarial reliance, and develop strategies for domestic/alternative sourcing to ensure reliable energy systems. Sponsored by Reps. Guthrie and James, it emphasizes holistic DOE review for affordable, secure energy.
Why it matters: Strengthens congressional mandate for REE supply chain resilience assessments, complementing executive efforts like Project Vault by embedding priorities in DOE policy and ongoing oversight.
House Passes H.R. 4090, Critical Mineral Dominance Act
naturalresources.house.gov — February 4, 2026
Summary: The House approved H.R. 4090 (introduced by Rep. Stauber), codifying Trump executive orders to boost domestic hardrock mineral production on federal lands, expedite permitting for priority mining projects, reduce regulatory barriers, increase geological mapping, and report on mining obstacles to Congress. It aims to accelerate responsible REE/critical mineral output.
Why it matters: Codifies administration priorities into law for faster domestic REE/mineral development, reducing China dependence and supporting national security/economic goals through streamlined processes.
Full URL:
https://naturalresources.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=418589
Section 232 Proclamation on Processed Critical Minerals – Negotiations Ongoing
White House / federalregister.gov — January 14, 2026 (updates into February)
Summary: President Trump’s proclamation directs Commerce/USTR to negotiate allied agreements on processed critical minerals/derivative imports to mitigate national security threats, considering price floors/tariffs if needed; first 180-day update due mid-2026. No immediate tariffs imposed.
Why it matters: Keeps regulatory pressure on non-allied sources (e.g., China) while enabling bilateral diversification; ties directly to Project Vault and Ministerial frameworks.
EXIM Board Approves $10B Loan for Project Vault
exim.gov — February 2, 2026
Summary: EXIM authorized up to $10B (largest in its history) in direct loans for Project Vault’s strategic reserve, combined with ~$2B private funds, to stockpile critical minerals/REEs and protect manufacturers from disruptions.
Why it matters: Regulatory milestone enables rapid stockpiling execution via executive financing authority, bypassing some appropriations hurdles and bolstering REE security.
Full URL:
https://www.exim.gov/news/project-vault
DOMESTIC NEWS — TOP 10
Trump’s $12B rare earth plan targets China as experts warn US is ‘one crisis away’
Fox News — February 13, 2026
Summary: President Trump’s Project Vault initiative, backed by $10B EXIM loan and $1.67B private funds, aims to build a strategic reserve of rare earths and critical minerals to shield EVs, defense, and tech from Chinese leverage. Industry experts highlight U.S. vulnerability to supply disruptions.
Why it matters: Reinforces urgency of domestic/alternative sourcing amid ongoing China dominance, driving procurement and investment in non-Chinese chains.
This mineral makes your life run – and now it’s a trade issue
CNN Business — February 11, 2026
Summary: Neodymium and other rare earths are essential for everyday tech and defense, with China holding near-monopoly on processing, elevating them to national security concerns in U.S.-China tensions. The Trump administration views access as critical.
Why it matters: Underscores how rare earths have become central to geopolitical rivalry, accelerating U.S. diversification efforts like Project Vault.
Full URL:
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/11/business/rare-earths-importance
US actions very creative to secure rare earths supply, Aclara CEO says
Fastmarkets — February 13, 2026 (interview dated February 9)
Summary: Aclara Resources CEO praises U.S. creativity in funding sustainable Western rare earth projects, including $5M DFC support for Brazil’s Carina feasibility study with potential priority investment.
Why it matters: Highlights growing U.S. “creative” financing abroad to build non-Chinese supply, complementing domestic ramps.
Rare Earth Stocks: 7 Critical Questions About Project Vault and the Mining Boom
InvestorPlace — February 13, 2026
Summary: Project Vault’s $12B reserve announcement ignited rare earth stock surges (e.g., Critical Metals up 35%), raising questions on which miners benefit most from government buying and stockpiling.
Why it matters: Signals Washington as major buyer, boosting investor interest and potential for sustained price/volume support.
Full URL:
https://investorplace.com/2026/02/rare-earth-stocks-2026-project-vault-questions
Rare earth stocks sink as Trump administration floats tariffs to implement price floor
Seeking Alpha — February 4, 2026 (carried into week discussions)
Summary: Rare earth shares fell after proposals for a critical minerals trading bloc with allies using tariffs for price floors to counter dumping and stabilize markets.
Why it matters: Reflects market sensitivity to policy implementation risks, balancing diversification gains against potential cost increases.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS — TOP 10
China to brief metals firms on rare earth export controls next month
Reuters — February 12, 2026
Summary: China’s metals chamber will brief firms March 25 on tightened rare earth and critical mineral export controls, dual-use goods oversight, and compliance.
Why it matters: Signals Beijing’s ongoing consolidation of leverage amid U.S.-led alliances, heightening supply risk for non-Chinese users.
China tightens grip on rare earth metals to counter US-led push to end its monopoly
The Economic Times — February 12, 2026
Summary: Premier Li Qiang inspected Jiangxi rare earth facilities, stressing consolidation of China’s lead as U.S. builds alliances with 50+ nations (including India) to diversify.
Why it matters: Reinforces China’s strategic edge in heavy rare earths, prompting accelerated Western “friend-shoring.”
US turns multilateral in search of critical mineral security
Reuters — February 11, 2026
Summary: Post-Project Vault and Ministerial, U.S. pursues metallic alliances with 54 nations at February 4 event, signing 11 bilaterals and emphasizing help to fill stockpiles.
Why it matters: Marks shift to plurilateral efforts (e.g., FORGE) to counter China’s chokehold via coordinated supply.
Safran Seeks Alternative Rare Earth Suppliers Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Morningstar (Dow Jones) — February 13, 2026
Summary: French engine maker Safran is stockpiling rare earths and seeking non-Chinese suppliers to counter “weaponization” amid escalating tensions.
Why it matters: Illustrates corporate hedging against geopolitical risks, supporting diversification demand.
China Imposes Escalated Export Controls on Dual-Use Items to Japan
National Law Review / Greenberg Traurig — February 2026
Summary: China escalated dual-use controls on Japan-bound items (including rare earth magnets), prohibiting exports enhancing military capabilities via end-use/user standards.
Why it matters: Heightens regional tensions and extraterritorial risks, complicating Asian supply chains reliant on Chinese rare earths.
Full URL:
https://natlawreview.com/article/china-imposes-escalated-export-controls-dual-use-items-to-japan
RARE EARTHS MARKET DATA — MID-FEBRUARY 2026
(Compiled from Strategic Metals Invest, Trading Economics, SMM, SunSirs, and industry reports as of February 13, 2026. Prices in USD/kg unless noted; primarily oxide/metal forms; Chinese domestic benchmarks dominant but Western premiums apply for heavy REEs due to supply constraints. Note: Prices volatile; retail/investor levels often higher than bulk industrial.)
Neodymium (Nd) Metal: ~$204.90/kg (YTD +37.24%; up significantly on demand)
Praseodymium (Pr) Metal: ~$202.20/kg (YTD +40.32%)
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide: ~$123/kg (China benchmark ~1,065,000 CNY/t or ~$148/kg equiv.; recent rally to multi-year highs, forecasts avg. $90,000/t for 2026)
Dysprosium (Dy) Metal/Oxide: ~$930.70/kg (YTD +105.05%; heavy REE tightness driving extreme gains)
Terbium (Tb) Oxide: ~$4,028.50/kg (YTD +103.11%; extreme premiums in non-Chinese markets)
Lanthanum Oxide: $575–$600/t ($0.58/kg; stable, low-demand light REE)
Cerium Oxide: Stable low (~$3–$10/kg range for light REEs)
Drivers: Robust EV/magnet demand, stockpiling, China supply signals; light REEs rallying on policy tailwinds, heavies at premiums amid diversification push. Volatility high; Western prices often 4–5x Chinese for Dy/Tb.
SUPPLY WATCH — WEEKLY CRITICAL MINERALS PRODUCTION
(U.S. Geological Survey / Industry Estimates — Latest)
U.S. status: REE focus via Project Vault ramps and equity (USA Rare Earth); lithium/cobalt/nickel import-heavy; persistent 100% reliance on multiple minerals.
Global: China refining dominance; allied additions slow but accelerating via DFC/EXIM funding.
USGS Program:
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/mineral-resources-program
IEA Critical Minerals:
https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS WATCH
Stable chains; Ministerial/FORGE driving allied flows and diversification. No major disruptions; China export suspension holds to Nov 2026, but March briefing and dual-use escalations pose risks.
LITHIUM MARKETS (Mid-February 2026)
Lithium carbonate (benchmark): 143,750 CNY/T ($20,000+/T equiv., Feb 13)
MoM: ↓ ~11–12% from January highs
YoY: ↑ ~88–89%
Drivers: Post-restocking consolidation; strong storage/EV demand floor.
COBALT MARKETS (Mid-February 2026)
Cobalt (benchmark): ~$56,290/T (Feb 5–13)
MoM: Stable/↑ ~2–3%
YoY: ↑ ~161%
Drivers: Deficit projections; battery sector pull.
NICKEL MARKETS (February 13, 2026)
Nickel: ~$17,000–$18,000/T (volatile)
MoM: Mixed
YoY: ↑ ~12–13%
Drivers: Short-term volatility vs. policy/supply tailwinds.
WEEKLY SWOT — Outlook: February 14–20, 2026
Table Version
Category
Details
Strengths
Accelerated policy support: $12B Project Vault stockpiling, USA Rare Earth equity stakes, Section 232 negotiations, and H.R. 3617/H.R. 4090 legislative wins provide structural tailwinds for domestic/alternative supply chains.
Firming prices across key REEs (NdPr rallying, Dy/Tb at extreme premiums) and battery metals (cobalt deficits, lithium demand floor) bolster producer revenues and investor sentiment.
Multilateral momentum via FORGE launch, 11 bilateral MOUs, and allied coordination (U.S.–Australia, EU/Japan) fosters diversified, resilient networks.
Surging demand from EVs, renewables, defense, and emerging tech (AI/robotics) underpins long-term growth, with permanent magnet applications projected at 8.5%+ CAGR through 2030.
Weaknesses
Persistent China dominance in refining/processing (~70–90%), heavy REE bottlenecks (Dy/Tb supply constrained outside China), and export policy uncertainty create ongoing vulnerabilities.
High import reliance (100% for 12+ minerals, including key REEs) and limited near-term non-Chinese capacity expose sectors to disruptions.
Market volatility (nickel whipsaws, lithium consolidation, REE price swings) and execution risks in scaling new facilities (e.g., magnet production delays) hinder financing and planning.
Environmental/regulatory hurdles in mining/processing slow domestic ramps and raise costs.
Opportunities
FORGE and allied blocs enable price floors/tariffs, joint stockpiling, and preferential deals to counter dumping and stabilize Western markets.
Explosive demand growth (tripling by 2030 in energy/defense applications) opens doors for new mines, recycling innovations, and “creative” financing (DFC/EXIM abroad, equity stakes).
Geopolitical tailwinds: U.S./allied investments in diversification (e.g., Australia/Lynas, Brazil projects) and potential CME futures contract for hedging REE prices.
Tech advances in by-product recovery, sustainable extraction, and magnet alternatives could reduce reliance and capture value in circular economy.
Threats
Geopolitical escalations: China March export briefing/controls resumption post-Nov 2026, dual-use restrictions, and resource nationalism could tighten global bottlenecks.
Oversupply risks in select segments (e.g., lithium pockets) and substitution threats from ongoing R&D into alternatives.
Implementation delays in Project Vault/FORGE, policy shifts (e.g., tariff/price floor risks), and oversight on equity funding could erode momentum.
Broader economic headwinds (e.g., EV slowdowns, trade disruptions) and environmental pushback on mining.
Expanded Editorial Version
The rare earths and critical minerals sector enters the latter half of February 2026 with a decidedly bifurcated outlook: robust policy-driven strengths colliding against entrenched structural weaknesses, while opportunities abound amid looming geopolitical threats. On the strengths side, the landscape has rarely looked more supportive for Western players. The $12 billion Project Vault—now advancing with EXIM’s landmark $10B loan and private capital inflows—positions the U.S. government as a committed buyer, providing a demand buffer that derisks new projects and stabilizes pricing for domestic producers like USA Rare Earth (soaring 83% YTD). Legislative wins such as H.R. 3617 and H.R. 4090 codify faster permitting, vulnerability assessments, and federal land access, while FORGE’s multilateral framework and 11 fresh bilateral MOUs signal genuine allied coordination. Prices tell a bullish story too: NdPr oxide rallying toward multi-year highs, dysprosium and terbium at punishing premiums outside China, and cobalt/nickel holding deficit-supported floors—all fueled by unrelenting pull from EVs, wind turbines, defense systems, and emerging AI/robotics applications. Permanent magnet demand alone is on track for 8.5%+ annual growth through 2030, ensuring structural tailwinds persist.
Yet these strengths are counterbalanced by glaring weaknesses that remind us the race is far from won. China’s iron grip on ~70–90% of global refining/processing remains the sector’s Achilles’ heel, with heavy REEs like dysprosium and terbium facing severe ex-China bottlenecks through at least 2027. Import reliance is near-total for many key minerals, leaving supply chains exposed to even minor disruptions. Volatility reigns supreme—nickel’s whipsaws deter long-term financing, lithium’s recent pullback reflects restocking cycles, and REE swings amplify execution risks in scaling new magnet facilities or mines. Environmental and regulatory hurdles further slow progress, while knowledge gaps and high CapEx/OpEx for separation technologies underscore how nascent Western capacity truly is.
The opportunities here are profound and increasingly actionable. FORGE offers a platform for real price floors, adjustable tariffs against dumping, and joint investment pipelines—potentially transforming “friend-shoring” from rhetoric to reality. Explosive demand tripling by 2030 across energy, defense, and tech creates massive upside for new sources, recycling breakthroughs, and innovative extraction (bioleaching, by-product recovery). Geopolitical urgency drives creative financing abroad (DFC-backed projects in Brazil, Australia alliances) and domestic ramps, while tools like a potential CME rare earth futures contract could finally enable hedging, attract capital, and reduce China’s pricing leverage. The circular economy—fueled by end-of-life EV magnets and e-waste—stands as a growing secondary supply avenue.
But threats loom large and could derail momentum quickly. China’s March 25 export briefing risks introducing tighter controls on rare earths and dual-use goods, potentially resuming restrictions post-November 2026 and exacerbating heavy REE shortages. Resource nationalism, extraterritorial escalations (e.g., Japan dual-use curbs), and broader trade disruptions remain ever-present. Oversupply pockets in lighter segments, ongoing substitution R&D, policy implementation hiccups (tariff/price floor execution risks), and environmental pushback could all temper enthusiasm. Economic slowdowns in EV adoption or broader markets would hit demand hard.
In essence, 2026 shapes up as a make-or-break year: policy acceleration and allied unity provide unprecedented tailwinds, but China’s dominance and geopolitical volatility demand flawless execution. The sector’s resilience is strengthening, yet the path to true diversification remains fraught—success hinges on converting today’s momentum into tomorrow’s secure, independent supply chains.
Bottom Line: Ministerial follow-through and Project Vault solidify U.S./ally resilience push. Prices hold firm on demand (with REEs surging), but China’s responses underscore need for accelerated diversification.
DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
11 new bilateral critical minerals frameworks/MOUs signed at February 4 Ministerial with nations including Argentina, UK, UAE, Peru, and Uzbekistan.
LOOKING AHEAD
As we peer into the coming week and beyond, the rare earth and critical minerals landscape stands at a pivotal inflection point. The echoes of the February 4 Ministerial and the launch of FORGE will reverberate strongly, with early implementation details likely to emerge on how this new forum will coordinate allied stockpiling, joint pricing mechanisms, and shared project financing—potentially accelerating “friend-shoring” in ways that could materially erode China’s processing stranglehold over the medium term.
Watch closely for any ripples from China’s March 25 metals briefing: Beijing’s signals on export controls for rare earths, dual-use goods, and related compliance could either reaffirm the current suspension (through November 2026) or introduce subtle tightening that tests Western supply resilience. A hawkish tone here would amplify urgency around Project Vault procurement flows, likely spurring faster drawdowns from the $12B reserve and renewed calls for domestic ramps at facilities like USA Rare Earth’s Texas Round Top and Oklahoma magnet plant.
On the pricing front, expect continued volatility but upward bias in key REEs—NdPr oxide holding firm near recent highs, with dysprosium and terbium premiums persisting amid heavy REE tightness. Broader battery metals (lithium, cobalt, nickel) will hinge on EV/storage demand signals; any fresh restocking or policy tailwinds could reverse lithium’s recent consolidation.
Longer horizon: As allied blocs solidify (EU/Japan trilateral talks on price floors, expanded bilaterals), and creative financing (DFC/EXIM abroad) gains traction, the structural shift away from China-centric chains appears inexorable—though execution risks, implementation delays, and geopolitical surprises remain ever-present. The administration’s pivot toward equity stakes, stockpiles, and multilateralism over broad price floors suggests a pragmatic, market-tested path forward, but success will demand sustained bipartisan momentum and private-sector agility.
In short, the next seven days—and the months that follow—will test whether Washington’s bold initiatives can translate rhetoric into resilient, diversified supply chains before the next crisis tests them.
About the Author
Terry L. Headley, MBA, MA, is a veteran energy communications and research executive with more than 25 years analyzing U.S. power markets, fuel policy, and grid reliability. A former journalist, he has advised utilities, trade associations, and policymakers on the operational realities of dispatchable generation, infrastructure resilience, and market design failures under extreme conditions.
About The Hedley Company
The Hedley Company is a strategic communications, research, and policy analysis firm specializing in energy, infrastructure, and industrial markets. Founded in 2004, the firm provides data-driven analysis and public affairs support focused on reliability, affordability, and national energy security.
About the Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy
The Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy is a non-profit research institute dedicated to traditional energy systems, grid reliability, and critical mineral supply chains essential to U.S. economic and national security. The Center conducts independent analysis to inform policymakers, industry leaders, and the public on the consequences of energy and infrastructure policy decisions.