COAL CURRENTS: An Intelligence Brief for the Nation’s Coal Industry A Publication of The Hedley Company

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — Two company earnings reports bookend the news this week and tell the coal industry’s story in raw financial terms. Peabody Energy reported Adjusted EBITDA of $82.5 million for Q1 2026 — down from $144 million a year earlier, but with CEO Jim Grech noting that “the durability of coal’s role in providing reliable and affordable power” held the seaborne thermal business above internal expectations. Alliance Resource Partners posted Q1 EPS of $0.07 against a $0.57 year-ago comparison — a 79 percent decline driven by an impairment at the Mettiki mine and the rolling-off of high-priced 2022 legacy contracts. The two reports, read together, describe a market in cyclical normalization after the 2022–2025 energy-crisis premium — not a market in structural collapse.

The international price signal this week is more muted than in the prior months. Newcastle closed at $131.75 per metric ton on May 8 — down $2.15 from last week’s $133.90 and off $14.75 from the March 20 high of $146.50. The war premium from the Hormuz closure has not disappeared, but it has compressed as US-Iran diplomatic signals softened the market ceiling and Japan and South Korea’s April import data showed less aggressive gas-to-coal switching than feared. What remains true: Newcastle is still 33 percent above year-ago levels. The structural LNG supply deficit created by the Hormuz closure has not resolved.

On the grid side, the EIA May Short-Term Energy Outlook drops tomorrow — May 12 — the first STEO update since April 7 and the first to incorporate the latest production, stockpile, and dispatch data. The April STEO projected power-sector coal consumption at 180 MMst for 1H26, down 10 percent from 1H25. Whether the May revision moves that number materially up or down is the most consequential EIA data release for the coal market in six weeks. The natural gas storage build for the week ending May 1 came in at 63 Bcf — bringing total inventories to 2,205 Bcf and maintaining the above-average storage surplus that has kept Henry Hub near $2.67 per MMBtu.

The regulatory calendar has an eight-day countdown that remains unresolved. The DOE Section 202(c) order on J.H. Campbell expires May 18. Consumers Energy’s Q1 filing with the SEC confirmed the financial reality: net compliance cost for the order’s second period was $138 million after MISO revenues, with FERC approval of cost recovery still pending. The plant ran at over 650 megawatts every day before and during Winter Storm Fern. Non-renewal before summer peak season would remove the largest single coal-fired generating asset in MISO’s northern zone. The decision is eight days away.

One more data point worth leading with: MSHA reported that the U.S. mining industry’s total recordable injury rate in 2025 fell to 1.74 per 200,000 hours worked — the lowest ever recorded. The MSHA-NMA Alliance Agreement was formally renewed this week. In a month when the coal industry’s critics generate the loudest headlines, that safety record belongs in the conversation.

SECTION 1  |  U.S. COAL PRODUCTION

EIA Weekly Coal Production Report  |  Released May 8, 2026  |  Week Ending May 3, 2026

NOTE: The EIA weekly coal production table did not render through automated data access as of press time. The data below reflects the most recent confirmed published data (week ending April 26 from The Coal Hub, published May 4) plus directional estimates for week ending May 3 based on the established shoulder-season trend. Official EIA production data for week ending May 3 is available at eia.gov/coal/production/weekly and should be used to update figures before publication.

State-Level Leaders  |  Week Ending April 26, 2026

Source: EIA Weekly Coal Production Report (released May 8, 2026, week ending May 3); prior week data from The Coal Hub, May 4, 2026. State-level estimates for May 3 week are directional pending EIA table confirmation.

SECTION 2  |  U.S. COAL SPOT PRICES & NATURAL GAS

EIA Coal Markets Report  |  Released May 5, 2026  |  Business Week Ending May 2, 2026

Natural Gas & International Benchmarks

ARLP’s Q1 2026 report confirms that ILB physical contract pricing has normalized from 2022-era peaks: average coal sales price of $51.05/ton for Illinois Basin, down 7.4 percent year-over-year. That is the market reality of legacy contracts rolling off. The EIA Coal Markets Report spot price of $52.00 reflects prompt-quarter delivery; the gap between spot and realized contract pricing reflects the lag in ARLP’s book. The competitive position against gas: at $2.20/MMBtu for ILB and $2.67/MMBtu for Henry Hub, ILB coal has a meaningful energy-equivalent cost advantage over gas for new marginal dispatch at power plants with scrubbers.

CAPP at $3.28/MMBtu sits above Henry Hub on a pure heat-equivalent basis. The economic case for existing CAPP-burning plants is not spot dispatch economics — it is operating cost versus new-build replacement cost. Capital on existing CAPP-burning units is fully sunk. The marginal decision is: run at $3.28 or shut down and pay for replacement capacity. At $3.28 versus new combined cycle all-in LCOE of $5-7/MMBtu equivalent, CAPP plants win that comparison every time.

Sources: EIA Coal Markets Report (released May 5, 2026, S&P Global data); FRED/EIA Henry Hub Daily (DHHNGSP, May 4 reading); Trading Economics (Newcastle May 8, 2026); Argus Media (API2 estimate); Alliance Resource Partners Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript.

SECTION 3  |  ELECTRICITY GENERATION, DEMAND & GRID UPDATE

EIA April 2026 STEO (April 7)  |  EIA Hourly Grid Monitor  |  EIA Gas Storage (wk May 1)

RTO/ISO Estimated Weekly Generation Mix  |  Week of May 4–10, 2026 (Analyst Estimates)

NOTE: EIA does not publish verified weekly fuel mix by RTO. Values below are analyst estimates consistent with EIA hourly grid data and STEO regional projections. Coal shares highlighted in amber.

The +63 Bcf gas storage injection for the week ending May 1 (released May 8) keeps the surplus over the five-year average intact and maintains downward pressure on Henry Hub into the summer. EIA projects storage will end October at 4,015 Bcf, 6 percent above the five-year average. That comfortable storage position supports continued low gas prices — and continued soft coal dispatch economics — through the shoulder season. The Campbell expiration on May 18 lands in this environment: low gas prices make the economic case for running Campbell difficult to sustain on dispatch economics alone. The reliability case — which is the correct frame — depends on MISO planning data, not Henry Hub.

WATCH: The May 12 STEO is the most consequential EIA release for coal markets in six weeks. The April forecast assumed the Hormuz conflict would begin resolving in April, crude oil prices peaking at $115/bbl in Q2. If May reveals that conflict assumptions have changed — or if natural gas production growth has continued to exceed forecasts — the coal power-sector consumption number could revise again. This issue goes to press before that release.

Sources: EIA April 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 7, 2026; next release May 12); EIA Natural Gas Storage Report (week ending May 1, released May 8, 2026); Premier Energy Management analysis; NERC LTRA 2025 (January 29, 2026).

 SECTION 4  |  U.S. STEEL PRODUCTION & MET COAL DEMAND

AISI Weekly Raw Steel Production  |  Week Ending May 2, 2026  |  Released May 5, 2026

Regional Distribution  |  Week Ending May 2, 2026 (000 net tons)

The steel sector is delivering the most constructive signal in this issue. Four and a half years is a long time between production highs, and 80.4 percent utilization is the rate at which blast furnaces are actually consuming met coal in real-time quantity. The Southern district at 838,000 tons — 45 percent of national output — reflects the Alabama, Indiana, and Ohio Valley mill concentration that runs on CAPP and imported high-vol A metallurgical coal. Year-to-date production at 31.4 million tons, 6.2 percent above last year, is the aggregate demand signal for the met coal market in 2026.

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) weekly raw steel production report, released May 5, 2026, for week ending May 2, 2026. Steel Market Update analysis, May 4, 2026: “This marks the highest weekly output level recorded since November 2021.”

  SECTION 5  |  EMPLOYMENT & ECONOMIC IMPACT

Annual Coal Report 2024 (EIA)  |  MSHA Safety Data 2025  |  DOE Federal Initiatives

Federal Employment Support Initiatives

This week’s MSHA safety announcement deserves a lead position, not a footnote. A total recordable injury rate of 1.74 per 200,000 hours worked — the lowest in recorded history — reflects what decades of CORESafety implementation, MSHA-NMA partnership, and mine-level safety investment actually produce. Mining fatalities are down 70 percent over 15 years. The coal industry’s critics do not lead with that number. Coal Currents does.

Sources: EIA Annual Coal Report 2024 (released November 19, 2025); MSHA Safety Statistics 2025; National Mining Association / Count on Coal, May 7, 2026; DOE press releases September–October 2025; DOE NCC announcement January 15, 2026.

  SECTION 6  |  RAIL & BARGE TRANSPORTATION

Association of American Railroads  |  Week Ending May 2, 2026 (Week 17)  |  Released May 7, 2026

Barge Transportation  |  Ohio / Illinois / Mississippi River Systems  |  Week of May 4–10, 2026

Coal is the only one of ten AAR-tracked commodity categories showing a year-over-year decline this week — and it is the only one whose decline is fully explicable by shoulder-season fundamentals that EIA has been projecting since winter. Every other major commodity is up: metallic ores +20.6%, grain +17.6%, nonmetallic minerals +5.2%. The freight system is healthy. Coal’s rail decline is a function of mild weather and building utility stockpiles, not demand destruction. The Lockport reopening on May 19 will provide the first real test of whether pent-up ILB barge freight translates into higher carload compensation or simply shifts modes. Watch for the Week 19 AAR data for the signal.

Sources: Association of American Railroads, Weekly Freight Traffic Report (released May 7, 2026, week ending May 2); American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) American Currents river conditions (accessed May 9, 2026); Railway Age, May 7, 2026.

  SECTION 7  |  DOMESTIC COAL & ENERGY INDUSTRY HEADLINES

Week of May 4–10, 2026  |  9 Items

Peabody Energy Q1 2026: Net Loss $(32.4)M; Seaborne Thermal Above Expectations on Hormuz Demand

Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) / SEC 8-K  |  May 5, 2026

Peabody reported Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $82.5 million — down from $144.0 million in Q1 2025 but above internal expectations, with CEO Jim Grech noting "higher volumes and lower costs versus expectations from seaborne thermal operations responding to increased demand from the Middle East conflict." Net income attributable to common stockholders was $(32.4) million, or $(0.27) per diluted share. The Centurion Mine in Queensland continues to work through longwall commissioning challenges, with a continued ramp-up projected in Q2. U.S. thermal volumes rose year-over-year driven by growing electricity demand. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share payable June 8. WHY IT MATTERS: Peabody is the largest U.S. coal producer and its CEO chairs the National Coal Council. When Grech says the Middle East conflict is driving higher seaborne thermal volumes and pricing — in an SEC-filed earnings release — that is a data point, not a talking point. The seaborne thermal premium is real and documented in audited financials.

Alliance Resource Partners Q1 2026: EPS $0.07 vs $0.57 YoY; Mettiki Impairment $37.8M; ILB Price Normalizing

Alliance Resource Partners (NASDAQ: ARLP) / Yahoo Finance  |  May 2026 (Q1 Report)

ARLP reported Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA of $155 million — above internal expectations despite the headline numbers. Net income was $9.1 million ($0.07/unit) versus $74.0 million ($0.57/unit) in Q1 2025, with the decline driven by a $37.8 million noncash impairment at the Mettiki mine and an $11.6 million digital-asset mark-to-market loss. ILB average coal sales price: $51.05/ton, down 7.4% YoY. Hamilton Mine longwall expected to resume production in the first half of May. Coal capacity factors approached 80% during peak winter storm periods. Full-year coal sales guidance is more than 95% committed and priced. WHY IT MATTERS: ARLP is the ILB bellwether. The $51.05 average price confirms that legacy 2022-era contract pricing is rolling off and the ILB is resettling toward current market rates. The Hamilton Mine restart in May and the Lockport Lock reopening May 19 are both operational catalysts that should improve ARLP’s Q2 numbers.

Consumers Energy Q1 2026: Campbell 202(c) Compliance Cost $138M; Industrial Sales Up 5.9%; FERC Recovery Pending

Consumers Energy / Utility Dive  |  May 2026 (Q1 Earnings)

Consumers Energy’s Q1 2026 10-Q disclosed that net financial impact of complying with the second DOE 202(c) order (through March 31, 2026) was $138 million after applying MISO revenues of $143 million. FERC approval of cost recovery remains pending. Industrial electricity sales rose 5.9% year-over-year, driven by new manufacturing loads. The utility expects new and expanded industrial loads plus data centers to drive sustained 2-3% annual sales growth into next decade. Michigan Potash & Salt Co. contracted for a $1.2 billion fertilizer facility that will draw significant new load from the system. WHY IT MATTERS: The $138 million compliance cost is Consumers Energy’s money — and without FERC recovery approval, it is potentially ratepayer money. As the Campbell May 18 expiration approaches, this disclosure frames the economic stakes of the renewal decision in concrete financial terms, not reliability abstractions.

MSHA 2025 Mining Injury Rate Falls to All-Time Low: 1.74 Per 200,000 Hours

National Mining Association / Count on Coal  |  May 7, 2026

MSHA data shows the U.S. mining industry’s total recordable injury rate fell to 1.74 per 200,000 hours worked in 2025 — the lowest ever recorded, down from 1.82 in 2024. Mining now has a lower nonfatal injury and illness rate than manufacturing, construction, or private industry overall. Mining fatalities have fallen 70 percent and injuries 40 percent over the past 15 years. The MSHA-NMA Alliance Agreement was formally renewed this week. WHY IT MATTERS: Every time a coal plant faces a retirement proceeding, anti-coal advocates attach a health and safety narrative to the economic argument. The industry’s actual safety record — all-time low injuries, declining fatalities, a 70 percent reduction over 15 years — belongs in every public comment, every earnings call, and every legislative hearing where coal’s future is being decided.

EIA May Short-Term Energy Outlook Releases Tomorrow — First Coal Market Update Since April 7

U.S. Energy Information Administration  |  May 12, 2026 (Release Date)

The EIA May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook publishes tomorrow — May 12 — the first STEO since the April 7 release that incorporated the initial Hormuz conflict assumptions (conflict resolving by late April). May’s STEO will reflect updated conflict duration assumptions, April production actuals, natural gas storage data, and the latest coal power-sector consumption and stockpile trajectory. The April STEO projected power-sector coal consumption at 180 MMst for 1H26, down 10% from 1H25. WHY IT MATTERS: If conflict assumptions have persisted longer than April forecasted, the May STEO may revise coal export forecasts upward and gas-competition dynamics. Conversely, if natural gas storage builds have been stronger than expected, the coal demand forecast may revise downward. Watch for changes to the 180 MMst 1H26 figure and the Henry Hub 2Q-3Q average of $3.10/MMBtu assumed in April.

EIA Natural Gas Storage +63 Bcf for Week Ending May 1 — Total 2,205 Bcf, Above Five-Year Average

U.S. Energy Information Administration / Premier Energy Management  |  May 8, 2026

EIA reported a 63 Bcf injection for the week ending May 1, 2026, bringing total working gas in storage to 2,205 Bcf — maintaining the storage surplus above the five-year average into the shoulder season. The April STEO projected ending October storage at 4,015 Bcf, 6% above the five-year average. The comfortable storage position supports continued sub-$3 Henry Hub pricing through summer 2026. WHY IT MATTERS: Every Bcf of above-average storage is additional pressure on gas prices — and additional pressure on coal dispatch economics in the thermal market. Gas storage is the best single indicator of where Henry Hub goes through the summer, and right now it is pointing toward continued soft pricing. The coal industry’s competitive position in power markets depends heavily on this trajectory.

EIA: Coal-Fired Capacity Retired in 2025 Was Least in 15 Years — 2.6 GW vs. 8.5 GW Planned

U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy  |  April 13, 2026

EIA reported that 2.6 GW of coal-fired generating capacity was retired in 2025 — the least since 2010 and far below the 8.5 GW operators had planned to retire. The gap reflects 4.8 GW of planned retirements delayed to future years, 1.1 GW with cancelled closure plans, and DOE 202(c) emergency orders covering J.H. Campbell (1,331 MW), R.M. Schahfer (722 MW), and F.B. Culley (90 MW). In 2026, 6.4 GW is currently scheduled to retire — roughly 4% of the coal fleet. WHY IT MATTERS: 2025 demonstrated that scheduled retirements are not executed retirements. Between DOE emergency authority, surging electricity demand, and utility planning uncertainty, the EIA-tracked retirement pipeline has consistently overstated actual closures. That dynamic is active in 2026 with the same pressure points in place.

Ember/Carbon Brief Analysis: Global Coal Power Rise from Hormuz Crisis Only 1.8% in Worst Case

Ember / Carbon Brief  |  Late April 2026

Analysis by climate think tank Ember, shared with Carbon Brief, concluded that the global coal power response to the Hormuz-driven LNG disruption amounts to a 1.8% worst-case increase in coal generation in 2026 — far less than initial market fears suggested. The analysis found that gas-to-coal switching has been less aggressive than anticipated, with declines in renewable output offsetting more switching than models expected. SOURCE FLAG: Carbon Brief is among publications Coal Currents flags for analytical bias (consistent advocacy lens). WHY IT MATTERS: This analysis will be widely cited by anti-coal advocates in regulatory proceedings and legislative testimony over the next six months. The coal industry needs a specific, sourced counter-analysis — focused on the critical question this study does not address: the difference between global average coal use and the specific reliability role of U.S. baseload coal in MISO, PJM, and ERCOT during peak-demand events.

DOE 202(c) Campbell Order Expires May 18 — 8 Days Out, No Renewal Announcement

U.S. Department of Energy  |  Expiration: May 18, 2026

The DOE Section 202(c) order directing Consumers Energy and MISO to keep the J.H. Campbell coal plant (1,331 MW, West Olive, Michigan) operational expires May 18, 2026 — eight days from press time. DOE has renewed the order four times previously, with each 90-day order building on the prior. The plant ran at over 650 MW daily through Winter Storm Fern. MISO’s planning resource auction data shows the northern and central Michigan zones cannot be covered by available replacement capacity. WHY IT MATTERS: Non-renewal on May 18 removes more generation than any single retirement proceeding in the current MISO queue. It also signals to utilities holding retirement decisions — Brandon Shores (MD), South Oak (WI), Comanche (CO) — that the administration’s emergency authority window may be closing. Renewal sends the opposite signal. Eight days.

 SECTION 8  |  INTERNATIONAL COAL & ENERGY INTELLIGENCE

Week of May 4–10, 2026  |  6 Items

Newcastle Drifts to $131.75/mt on May 8 — Down $14.75 From March 20 Peak; Still +33% YoY

Trading Economics (CFD / Newcastle benchmark)  |  May 8, 2026

Newcastle thermal coal closed at $131.75 per metric ton on May 8, down 0.34% on the day and 2.77% over the past month. The price sits $14.75 below the 17-month high of $146.50 set March 20, as repeated US-Iran diplomatic signals have introduced a soft ceiling on the war premium. The benchmark remains 33.2% above year-ago levels. The key dynamic: the structural LNG supply deficit created by the Hormuz closure persists, but the market is pricing the risk of resolution. WHY IT MATTERS: The direction matters as much as the level. A Newcastle that is softening from $146 toward $130 tells a different commercial story for U.S. exporters than a Newcastle holding near its high. At $131.75, the export economics for CAPP steam coal are still constructive, but the window is narrower than in March. Operators who have not locked forward contracts should be watching this drift carefully.

S&P Global Trade Review: China Lifts BHP Iron Ore Curbs; Middle East Diversions Boost Q2 Supply

S&P Global Commodity Insights  |  May 7, 2026

S&P Global reported that China lifted unofficial import curbs on BHP iron ore products on April 14 — following months of restricted trading in seaborne spot markets. The lifting coincided with BHP concluding iron ore sales contract discussions with China Mineral Resources Group on April 22. High-grade iron ore concentrates are being diverted to China from Middle East sources disrupted by the Hormuz conflict, boosting Q2 Asia supply. Derivatives volume for iron ore has risen. WHY IT MATTERS: China’s iron ore market dynamics are directly upstream of metallurgical coal demand. Chinese blast furnaces consuming more iron ore at higher utilization rates means more met coal. The BHP curb lifting removes a constraint that had been suppressing Chinese steel output expectations. Watch Chinese crude steel production data for Q2 — any uptick there is a met coal demand signal.

India Coking Coal Imports Projected at 81.6 MMt in 2026 — Structural Demand Growth Intact

Argus Media  |  January 2026 (updated seaborne demand context)

Argus projections show India’s coking coal imports at approximately 81.6 million metric tons in 2026 and 86.5 MMt in 2027, driven by India’s steel production ambitions (doubling to 300 MMt/yr by 2030). India was the world’s second-largest crude steel producer through November 2025 at 150.1 MMt, and metallurgical coal imports rose 32 percent year-over-year to 73.53 MMt in 2025. U.S. met coal to India has been a growth channel. WHY IT MATTERS: India is now the marginal buyer in global met coal markets. With China reducing imports, India’s growth trajectory is what determines whether global seaborne metallurgical coal volumes grow or contract over the next five years. U.S. exporters at Hampton Roads and Baltimore have the right product mix (high-vol A) for Indian blast furnaces, and the export infrastructure to serve it.

Anglo American Australian Met Coal Asset Auction — Three Bidders Active: Stanmore, Mitsubishi, PT Buma

Trading Economics / Investing.com  |  Late April 2026

Anglo American’s Queensland steelmaking coal assets continue to attract three confirmed bidders: Stanmore Resources, Mitsubishi Corporation, and PT Buma Internasional Grup. The assets represent significant high-vol metallurgical coal production with established supply relationships in Japan and South Korea. Anglo American is seeking to divest as part of a broader portfolio restructuring. WHY IT MATTERS: The auction outcome will reset Atlantic Basin met coal pricing benchmarks. Whoever buys Anglo’s Queensland assets inherits a production platform that competes directly with U.S. high-vol A coal in European and South American steel markets. A financial buyer (vs. an operator like Stanmore or Mitsubishi) may run volume lower while waiting for price recovery — which would tighten supply and support U.S. CAPP premiums.

Seaborne Coal Demand 2026: India Up 9% in February; Summer Cooling Season Approaching in Asia

The Coal Hub  |  March 27, 2026 / Spring 2026 context

The Coal Hub reported that India increased seaborne coal flows by nearly 9% to 19 million tonnes in February, driven by stronger industrial activity and rising steel production. Summer electricity demand from April to June is expected to keep Asian imports firm. Indonesia’s February exports dropped 13%, tightening seaborne supply at a time when the Hormuz disruption has already constrained LNG alternatives. China imported roughly 25 million tonnes in February, down 10% YoY, as domestic supply substitution continues. WHY IT MATTERS: The seaborne coal demand picture is bifurcated: India buying more, China buying less, Indonesia shipping less. The net effect on U.S. exporters depends on whether they can redirect volume toward Indian buyers. At current freight rates and CAPP pricing, U.S. coal is competitive into India for high-vol A grades.

Hormuz Week 10: US-Iran Diplomatic Signals Soften Market Ceiling; Conflict Resolution Remains Unresolved

Multiple sources: Reuters, Argus, Trading Economics  |  Week of May 4-10, 2026

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its tenth week, though diplomatic contacts between U.S. and Iranian officials have introduced periodic ceiling effects on energy commodity prices. Newcastle has softened from its March 20 peak as the market prices potential resolution. But no resolution has occurred, and oil production shut-ins among Gulf producers continue at elevated levels per the EIA April STEO. WHY IT MATTERS: Every week the Hormuz situation persists without resolution is another week of structural LNG supply deficit driving coal as a baseload substitute. The diplomatic ceiling moderates the upside, but the fundamental supply gap that created the coal premium in March has not closed. Operators managing export contracts should be watching the US-Iran diplomatic track as the primary risk to Newcastle pricing.

 SECTION 9  |  LEGISLATIVE, REGULATORY & JUDICIAL

REGULATORY

EPA CCR Proposed Rule: Comment Period Open Through June 12; Virtual Hearing May 28

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency  |  April 17, 2026 (Active Comment Period)

EPA’s April 17, 2026 proposed rule revising Coal Combustion Residuals disposal requirements for surface impoundments and landfills at coal plants is in a 60-day public comment period running through June 12, with a virtual public hearing on May 28. The rule proposes to modify closure requirements and monitoring obligations. WHY IT MATTERS: CCR compliance is a direct driver of retirement economics. Reducing that burden removes one of the three financial legs holding up premature retirement decisions. The comment period closes in 33 days. Industry must build the administrative record now.

DOE 202(c) Active Orders: Campbell Expires May 18; Indiana and Washington Plants Under Active Orders

U.S. Department of Energy  |  Current

Five coal-fired plants totaling approximately 4,300 MW remain under active DOE Section 202(c) emergency orders: J.H. Campbell MI (expires May 18), R.M. Schahfer IN (722 MW), F.B. Culley IN (90 MW), Craig Station CO (446 MW), and Centralia WA (729 MW). DOE denied rehearing of the MISO orders on April 21. The denial keeps Indiana plants operational and sharpens the legal contest to D.C. Circuit judicial review. WHY IT MATTERS: Seventeen-plus GW of coal-fired capacity has been preserved since May 2025 through this authority. The Campbell decision in eight days determines whether the program continues to function as a sustained reliability strategy.

JUDICIAL

D.C. Circuit: Sierra Club/Earthjustice Challenge to DOE 202(c) Authority — Active Litigation

Utility Dive / Sierra Club / Earthjustice  |  February 2026 / Active

Sierra Club, Earthjustice, and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel have filed the first-ever judicial challenges to DOE’s use of Section 202(c) authority in D.C. Circuit, arguing the orders unlawfully override state regulatory decisions and impose costs without due process. Compliance costs have exceeded $80 million at a single facility per the challengers. DOE’s denial of rehearing on April 21 clears the administrative record and advances the matter toward judicial review. WHY IT MATTERS: An adverse ruling at D.C. Circuit constrains DOE’s emergency authority in every future reliability crisis. The stakes extend far beyond the four plants currently under order.

Colorado Utilities Sue DOE Over Craig Station 202(c) Order; Constitutional Challenge Active

Power Engineering / Tri-State G&T  |  January 2026 / Active

Two Colorado utilities have filed suit challenging the DOE’s 202(c) order requiring Craig Station Unit 1 (446 MW) to remain operational, arguing the order is unconstitutional and overrides the state’s chosen retirement timeline in favor of solar replacement. The case is proceeding alongside the D.C. Circuit challenge. WHY IT MATTERS: The Colorado case presents the constitutional argument in its sharpest form: federal emergency authority versus state-directed resource planning. If it prevails, 202(c) becomes inapplicable wherever a state has an active alternative plan — which narrows the tool to scenarios where no state process exists.

  SECTION 10  |  SWOT ANALYSIS & STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

STRATEGIC OUTLOOK  |  WEEK ENDING MAY 10, 2026

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — Two earnings reports, one expiring order, and one data release tomorrow define the week. Read in order, they describe where the coal industry actually stands in May 2026 — not where advocacy positions it, and not where the transition narrative places it.

Start with the earnings. Peabody posted Q1 Adjusted EBITDA of $82.5 million on seaborne thermal volumes that exceeded expectations because the Hormuz conflict is pushing Asian utilities to book coal at premium prices. That is the international story in audited financial form. Alliance Resource Partners posted $9.1 million in net income against $74 million a year ago, with the headline decline driven not by market fundamentals but by a noncash impairment at the Mettiki mine and the rolling-off of 2022 legacy contracts that were never going to hold forever. Both companies are operating in a market that is normalizing, not collapsing. The production decisions, employment levels, and contract books they carry into summer 2026 reflect companies that expect to be in business through 2030 and beyond.

The MSHA safety announcement from this week deserves more than a data table. Total recordable injury rate at 1.74 per 200,000 hours is the lowest ever recorded. Mining fatalities have fallen 70 percent over 15 years. When the coal industry’s critics attach safety narratives to retirement arguments, the industry has a factual answer: zero improvements in worker safety have followed from any power plant closure. The safety record belongs to the mines and the miners — and it belongs in the policy conversation.

Newcastle at $131.75 is softer than it was in March. That is worth noting without catastrophizing. The price is 33 percent above where it was a year ago. The structural LNG supply deficit created by the Hormuz closure has not been resolved; diplomatic contacts have produced a ceiling, not a floor. U.S. thermal and metallurgical coal exporters are operating in a better international price environment than they have seen since 2022. The question is not whether the war premium persists — it will erode as the conflict risk prices out. The question is what the baseline looks like after the premium fades: at $131.75, it is still above the prior-year level by a third.

The May 12 STEO is the most consequential EIA release in six weeks. The April STEO built its coal power-sector consumption forecast on an assumption that the Hormuz conflict would begin resolving in late April. It has not. Whether the May revision adjusts for that, and how it revises the Henry Hub 2Q-3Q forecast of $3.10/MMBtu, will set the analytical frame for utility coal procurement decisions through the summer. If the May STEO revises gas prices upward or coal exports upward on sustained Hormuz premium, it changes the retirement decision calculus for operators still holding 2026 closure plans.

The eight-day countdown to the Campbell expiration is the clearest stress test the administration’s energy reliability posture has faced. Not since the first 202(c) order was issued in May 2025 has the program faced a higher-profile expiration decision in a more politically charged environment. The legal challenges are active. The cost disclosure from Consumers Energy is on the record. The grid reliability data is on the record. MISO’s planning resource auction data is on the record. Secretary Wright has everything he needs to sign a renewal. The question is whether he does it before May 18 or leaves the industry to manage the uncertainty of a last-minute decision.

The Lockport Lock reopens May 19. Nine days from press, the Illinois River’s primary navigation constraint on ILB barge movements above River Mile 291 ends. Six weeks of pent-up barge freight demand will release into the late-May market. Alliance Resource Partners’ Hamilton Mine longwall restart is also expected in the first half of May. Both are operational catalysts that should show up in June rail and production data. Track them.

The strategic position of the U.S. coal industry in May 2026 is this: stronger than the spring production numbers suggest, better-positioned internationally than the Newcastle softening implies, and operationally sound as demonstrated by the safety record and the steel industry’s demand for met coal at 4.5-year production highs. The work ahead is in the administrative record on CCR, in the courtroom on 202(c), and in the eight-day window before the Campbell order expires. The numbers support the case. The case needs to be made.

By T.L. Headley, MBA

President, The Hedley Company