ERCOT filed a forecast projecting a 4x increase in Texas peak power demand by 2032. The number is probably wrong. The crisis underneath is not. There are three questions nobody wants to answer, given below, with the data to back them up.
ERCOT filed a preliminary long-term load forecast last week, projecting 367,790 MW of peak demand by 2032; more than four times the record. The filing immediately went viral across every internet energy utility trade publication.
The debate about 367 GW is mostly theater. ERCOT's senior vice president filed comments the same day and asked the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) not to use the number for reliability or resource adequacy analysis. Strip out the speculative pipeline and the base case lands around 111 GW. Still a 30% increase over today's record, still an unprecedented build challenge, and still something the current equipment and workforce supply chain cannot meet on a credible timeline.
So let's ask the three questions.
Question 01: Where is the power equipment coming from?
Transformers and turbines are required to build generation or transmission. Both are in a supply crisis with no headline forecast changes.
Power transformers make transmission possible, and are averaging 128-week lead times as of Q2 2025. Generator step-up units (GSUs), required for utility-scale generation projects, are at 144 weeks. That's nearly three years to have basic equipment before breaking ground. Domestic manufacturing accounts for only about 20% of US demand for power transformers, with the remainder met by imports constrained by global competition and raw material shortages.
The earliest realistic delivery slot for a large combined-cycle turbine is 2030. There are three major vendors globally: GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power. Around 120 to 130 advanced-class units are available annually worldwide. Saudi Arabia ordered roughly 30 turbines in one transaction, which depleted a quarter of the global annual supply.
"Frankly, we can't make enough gas turbines to support this market. What a difference a few years make."
- Siemens Energy North America President, POWERGEN International 2025
The equipment math does not change because of the demand forecast. Copper prices are up over 70% since 2020. Grain-oriented electrical steel (the core material in every power transformer) has one US producer. The tariff environment has made imports more expensive, not more available. This is not a financing problem; it is a manufacturing and physics problem.
Sources: Wood Mackenzie Q2 2025 · S&P Global May 2025 · BloombergNEF Feb 2026 · Norton Rose Fulbright Aug 2025.
Question 02: Where is the generation actually coming from?
ERCOT received 2,000 new generation interconnection requests in 2025, totaling 432 GW. Solar and storage account for 77% of those requests. The timeline shows how this figure is misleading.
The large-load interconnection queue is part of the problem. ERCOT is tracking approximately 410 GW of large loads seeking interconnection, of which 87% are data centers. Data center load will account for 228 GW of the submitted large-load requests by 2032. Oncor's territory goes from roughly 5 GW in large-load submissions in 2026 to over 109 GW by 2032. This requires a pace of grid buildout without historical precedent in the US power sector. Transmission costs in ERCOT have risen from $1.5 billion in 2010 to over $5 billion in 2024. They could exceed $12 billion per year by 2033. That cost lands on ratepayers unless the regulatory framework changes.
Sources: ERCOT Preliminary LTLF Filing Apr 2026 · Berkeley Lab 2024 · ERCOT STEP Approval Dec 2025 · Texas Public Policy Foundation Jan 2026.
Question 03: Where are the people coming from?
Engineers, project developers, and the construction workforce are required to design, outfit for permit, and build 282 GW (or 30 GW). That pipeline is thinning faster than interconnection queues are filling up.
The workforce gap:
Structural imbalance: 2.4 workers are nearing retirement for every 1 new entrant under 25. Nearly half of all power engineers changed jobs, left their employers, or left the industry entirely in the past 3 years. The companies building critical energy infrastructure are competing with each other for engineers and project developers, and they are competing with tech, defense, semiconductor, and EV manufacturing sectors, all of which are expanding and drawing from the same shrinking pool of applied technical talent.
"Without enough engineers, these critical projects will be delayed, compounding reliability risks and slowing the energy transition at the exact moment when momentum is needed most."
- André Begosso, Kearney (Kearney / IEEE Power Engineering Study, 2025)
The workforce math compounds the equipment math. Engineers design the projects, and project developers move them into interconnection. Construction workers build them, and grid operators run them. These pipelines are constrained. Unlike equipment lead times, a workforce shortage cannot be solved by placing a large order two years in advance.
Sources: Kearney / IEEE Power Engineering Workforce Study 2025 · IEA World Energy Employment 2025 · AEE Jobs & Market Trends 2025.
So what actually happens?
The 367 GW number will be revised. ERCOT said so the day they filed it. Texas is adding a large load faster than any grid in the country, and this large load demands absorption. Infrastructure buildout is required to meet even a fraction of the demand. Three-year transformer queues, five-to-seven-year gas turbine backlogs, five-year average interconnection timelines, and a workforce aging out faster than it's being replaced create the largest capital deployment challenge in the ERCOT region in a generation.
The companies winning in this environment are not chasing the 367 GW headline. They ordered equipment two years ago, locked interconnection positions before the queue exploded, and are building the technical teams to execute when the permits clear. The companies that wait will be bidding $50K over market for engineers who already have three offers and find themselves well within the middle of the problems of GW production maximization.
Source: https://www.root-edge.com/article/367-gw-by-203where2--the-hell-is-it-all-coming-from
Reprinted and edited with permission from: root/edge
Written by: Lars Gloessner