The energy landscape in sub-Saharan Africa is rapidly changing. A lot of pathways to electrification have emerged, with a particular focus on poor countries. It is likely that different countries are going to measure the access and electrification through different approaches other than the conventional grid connections. To this end, many development partners have pitched in to enhance energy access and reduce energy poverty in the global south. These developments are a critical part of solving the energy crisis – which is intricately connected to many other systemic issues such as sustainability, climate change and economic development. The intersection of these issues provides a good starting point for proper diagnosis – and solution finding for energy related national and continental challenges.
It is obvious that economic development is usually anchored on the availability of reliable and affordable energy. The part on sustainability can be debated and could form another discussion. It is also a fact that sub-Saharan Africa has high population growth rate- and in another 3 decades, Africa shall be home to about 4 billion people. This high population will require job opportunities – in agriculture, and manufacturing. The increased population shall also need new modes of transportation, water, food, among other issues that are key to the survival of the humanity. Imagining the current chaos with less that 3 billion people, one cannot help but conjure apocalyptic images of poor waste management, unplanned residential areas, lack of employment and general misery. Yet this could also be different. However, we will stick to energy and how proper forward thinking, and reflection on the current trajectory could help alleviate the challenges of the future.
Whether universal access to energy has been achieved is a concern for another day. The next discourse must consider what lies thereafter. It can be argued that while addressing the energy access has by far and large improved the quality of life, it was not an idea that sufficiently considered the most insidious plight of the residents of sub-Saharan Africa, in so far as energy systems and supply is concerned. And where these planners considered the same, it was poorly implemented or was totally avoided and replaced with the renewable energy agenda. It is necessary to state that there is nothing against the renewables. However, it is important to note that sub-Saharan Africa, as has been in many cases, found itself at the consumption end of this industry, and did not have its own voice on the matter. For instance. no one is yet to speak about the likely environmental challenge that might implode from the characteristic “dumping” of solar and other technologies. Again, I digress.
One key aspect that has either been forgotten (as is the case in many African states) or mismanaged (as is in Kenya) has been the consideration of energy infrastructure going into the future. As a net consumer of technology and goods, countries such as Kenya do not have the luxury to wait and pray and hope that technology shall find and provide system relief. Therefore, planning energy scenarios would require a roadmap that reiterates the significance of having a stronger network to supply future energy needs, and supply power of standard quality.
Kenya’s distribution network is old and weak – and in local terms, afraid of the rain. For whatever reasons, rainy seasons are synonymous to increased outages. This significantly affects business, manufacturing, and the economy at large. The widespread use of backup diesel generators (estimated to be more than twice the total installed generation capacity), is a testament to the high unreliability of our system. Failure to address these issues, and continued by-passing of overloaded distribution transformers, cannot catapult us to the fabled Silicon Savannah. And for the enthusiasts of the access programs, beyond the provision of lighting – and the myriad of poor folk caught between sessions of darkness and light, due to weekly defaulting, pay as you go pico systems cannot be used by mandazi makers to improve their economic welfare. We must get serious as a country and move away from this complacence.
Solid progress that can shift all the factors within the intersection of our national goals must first deal with the inadequacy and inefficiency of our supply system. The infrastructure is the only guarantor of reliability. However, this has not been seriously considered by successive governments, and it is without doubt one of the key aspects that require urgent addressing. This is closely tied to the question of renewables, cost of energy and power purchase agreements, discussed in second part of this conversation.
As in our earlier article published years back, it should be obvious now to development partners that access programs shall only serve to keep sub-Saharan communities in dependency. Alarmingly, some governments have taken on the habit of classifying pico systems and off-grid systems as electrification. Again, it my considered view that such delays what we must do. To harness and have some form of control on the future of the continent, it is critical that a wholesome planning mechanism be rolled with a strong emphasis on robust infrastructure planning. This must consider all forms of resources, among them coal, nuclear and whatever else can provide us with affordable and stable power and enhance reliable interconnections to our cities, factories, schools, and hospitals. Interim planning for 4 billion people may not be a walk in the park.