A transition is not used to refer to a moment in time when things change. It is used to describe a time span over which things change from one state or condition to another.
A transition can be an evolution of something where the original “thing” is still there but is now different. Or it can be an eventual, gradual, and total replacement of the first thing by the second.
Transitions happen all the time, including for all of us personally. Industries go through transitions as they react (or don’t) to developments ranging from new inventions to new government requirements.
When the automobile was invented around the year 1885 (by a German guy named Benz), it was a rarity to see one on a road. Horses and carriages continued to dominate for many years. But the transition from horses to the autos was set in motion based on a variety of benefits coming from autos, ranging from the high cost of keeping horses to the elimination of horse “exhaust” despoiling the streets and highways.
I don’t know when the last horse-drawn carriage was in use instead of a car, but it certainly was a while after cars arrived. There was a transition.
The clean energy transition has already been a long one (since starting in the 70’s) and is still underway, While the road has been bumpy, the transition has not been stopped. And the more that has been learned about the harm of non-carbon pollution (e.g. NOx, SOx, etc.) and carbon pollution, and the more that has been learned about how renewable energy can be much cheaper than fossil energy, the more reason has been demonstrated for continuing this transition.
it is natural for people and companies that are involved in and tied to an “old” thing to not like the idea of being replaced. After all, some who have a whole cake to themselves don’t always like the idea of having to share it.
Existing players can choose to recognize a transition and adapt or maybe switch teams. But that is easier said than done. And sometimes if the transition is somewhat radical, it may be too much of a stretch. For example, those in the horse-drawn carriage industry can’t say they didn’t see what was coming. But they couldn’t turn their horses into autos.
In the case of the clean energy transition, some oil and gas companies did try to go with the flow and invest in or even become renewable energy entities (remember the ads by BP that said the letters stood for “Beyond Petroleum”?) But that didn't last long.
Governments can have, and usually do, have a big role in transitions of entire industries. The benefits of a transition can cause governments to provide financial support to help make the transition happen faster.
When the energy sector changed from wood and water to coal, oil and gas, the federal government stepped in, having seen the benefits of the new energy types and put a variety of different subsidies in place to help grow the fossil fuel industry.
In the case of the clean energy transition, the federal government has also stepped in to make it happen, providing tax incentives, rebates, subsidies, etc. They notably did not reduce or eliminate the tax breaks for oil, gas & coal to help with the transition, but at least it helped clean energy industry begin to grow and compete.
Having grown and matured, renewable energy is now not only competitive with fossil fuels, but also cheaper, and that is why the vast majority of the power added to the grid in recent years is from renewable projects.
We are still in the transition, however, and clean energy is still a relatively new industry, and that is why recent Congresses have seen fit to provide incentives to the sector to help it move even faster than it already has.
But it seems the oil & gas industry has determined that it would be easier to put their effort (and their dollars) into stopping the clean energy transition as opposed to adapting to it, becoming part of it, or trying to compete with it.
This determination has been demonstrated in the major Budget Legislation that is about to become law. It also has been demonstrated in a number of policy actions by the Executive Branch.
In taking these steps, the federal government is acting in direct opposition to the majority of Americans that are concerned about climate change and who want the federal government to take action to stop it.
Maybe that chicken will come home to roost at some point in the future and policymakers (new and/or old ones) will change course and return to supporting a clean energy transition. But the important thing is that a transition can be hard to start up again after it has been stopped. At a time when for both climate and economic reasons we need a faster transition, the current one may not just have been slowed down but possibly halted.
We are already losing the race to address our carbon emissions problem. We are doing some good things, but they are not big enough nor being done fast enough to keep up with the pace of emissions and the increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2.
And now it looks like we will fall farther behind in addressing emissions. It also looks like we will be paying higher energy prices under the Budget Legislation, and that will harm our global competitiveness.
However, while new federal policy will likely slow down (or worse) the clean energy transition in the U.S, it will not stop it globally. The rest of the world wants nothing to do with fossil fuels other than as part of a true transition. Countries like Pakistan and Vietnam are going straight to electrification and avoiding as much fossil energy as they can.
And then there is the 800 lb. Panda.
Yes ....China has built a lot of coal plants, but its real focus is its transition to a clean energy economy. It is doing this so that that prices to its consumers will be lower, and so that its manufacturing sectors can spend less on energy in their production efforts and be more competitive. Also, China is laser-focused on being the main supplier to the world of what other countries need for their own clean energy transition.
The U.S? We yielded the solar technology and product sector to China some time ago. We are about to hand the EV industry over to them as well. Same with the kind of research necessary for the next chapters of the clean energy transition.
Meanwhile, the Congress and Administration are trying to take the horses out of the barn and put them on the road again.
Sad ….