Driven by government incentives to bypass China, India's solar module capacity has jumped 13-fold since 2020 to 154 GW—nearly triple the domestic demand of 53 GW. (Bloomberg)
With US exports hit by new tariffs and domestic demand lagging, capacity utilization has plummeted from over 70% in 2023 to about 40%.
The glut may worsen as cell manufacturing capacity is projected to quadruple to 100 GW in the next two years, creating another wave of oversupply that could crash prices further.
One proposed fix: follow China's playbook and leverage India's export-import bank to finance solar projects in developing regions like Africa—the world’s fastest-growing solar market.