We probably didn’t need a study to figure out that EVs are driven less than gas-powered cars. Charging infrastructure is not where it needs to be and let’s face it: even if it was, it still takes 30 to 60 minutes to charge an EV versus a few minutes at a gas pump.
Until these challenges are resolved - for most people - EVs will serve mostly as commuter cars or second vehicles.
On average, exactly have many fewer miles are EVs driven? It isn’t just a few, it’s 4,500. If you assume the miles an average person drives each year is about 14,000, that constitutes about a third less, and that’s substantial.
Note that this particular study’s findings may have been skewed by the fact that it only looked at EVs that were sold or turned in by the owners. These owners may have had issues with the car, and the cars examined were older vehicles. Nonetheless, other studies are consistent with these findings, as is common sense.
Notwithstanding the environmental benefits of EVs, overall vehicle value still plays an important role for most people in the buying decision. And driving fewer miles translates into a longer payback period. Determining just how much longer isn’t as easy as it would seem.
I reviewed several articles on EV payback and their approaches varied. Factors such as initial cost, fuel savings, maintenance costs, tax credits and incentives, resale value, and where you charge, all play a role.
Driving fewer miles lowers fuel savings, but theoretically it also lowers maintenance and insurance costs. However, maintenance is already lower for an EV given routine maintenance like oil changes and tune ups are eliminated. Warranties for EVs also tend to be longer. Conversely insurance on EVs tends to be 5 to 10% higher.
For this exercise let’s focus on fuel savings. The estimates I reviewed pegged fuel savings anywhere from $1,000 to $1,800, which is quite a spread. However, they all assumed annual mileage in the 15,000 range. Drop that to 10,000, and annual fuel savings are cut a third or in the neighborhood of $300 - $500.
In the scheme of things that isn’t much. Generally, estimates put the payback on an EV versus a gas-powered vehicle in the five to six-year range. Over a six-year period the lower fuel savings would equate to $1,800 to $3,000 which could add 6 to 12 months to the payback period.
That probably isn’t going to alter the buying decision for most people. And as far as EV adoption is concerned, it’s pretty low on the list of issues. The charging conundrum - both availability and speed - needs to be resolved, and manufacturers have to deliver viable EV models in the $35,000 range. Until then, widespread adoption isn’t likely to occur despite the myriad state regulations that plan to ban the sale of gas-powered vehicles by 2035.