A review by the SUN DAY Campaign of data recently released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals that, during the first ten months of 2025, solar and battery storage have dominated growth among competing energy sources. Moreover, all net new generating capacity in 2026 is forecast to be provided by renewable energy sources and batteries.
Solar electrical generation set new records in October and the first ten months of 2025:
EIA’s latest monthly "Electric Power Monthly" report (with data through October 31, 2025), once again confirms that solar is the fastest growing among the major sources of U.S. electricity.
In October alone, electrical generation by utility-scale solar (i.e., >1-megawatt (MW)) expanded by 23.3% compared to October 2024 while “estimated” small-scale (e.g., rooftop) solar PV increased by 12.6%. Combined, they grew by 20.6% and provided 9.1% of the nation’s electrical output during the month, up from 7.8% a year ago. [1]
Moreover, utility-scale solar thermal and photovoltaic expanded by 34.5% while that from small-scale systems rose by 11.3% during the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. The combination of utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by almost a third (28.1%) and produced a bit over 9.0% (utility-scale: 6.86%; small-scale: 2.16%) of total U.S. electrical generation for January-October - up from 7.2% a year earlier.
Similarly, solar-generated electricity year-to-date (YTD) easily surpassed - by over 67% - the output of the nation’s hydropower plants (5.4% of total generation). In October alone, solar-generated electricity nearly doubled hydro’s output. In fact, in both October and YTD, solar produced significantly more electricity than hydropower, biomass, and geothermal combined. [2]
Wind continues to hold the lead among renewables:
Wind turbines across the U.S. produced almost a tenth (9.9%) of U.S. electricity in the first ten months of 2025 – an increase of 1.1% compared to the same period a year earlier and 84% more than hydropower.
Wind + solar are almost one-fifth of total U.S. electrical generation – a larger share than that provided by either coal or nuclear power:
During the first ten months of 2025, electrical generation by wind plus utility-scale and small-scale solar increased by 12.4% and provided almost a fifth (18.9%) of the U.S. total, up from 17.3% during the first ten months of 2024.
Further, the combination of wind and solar provided 16.6% more electricity than did coal during the first ten months of this year, and 10.8% more than the nation’s nuclear power plants. In fact, while solar and wind expanded, nuclear-generated electricity experienced zero growth.
Electrical output YTD by the mix of all renewables was almost 26% of total U.S. generation:
The mix of all renewables (i.e., wind and solar plus hydropower, biomass and geothermal) produced 8.6% more electricity in January-October than they did a year ago and provided (25.7%) of total U.S. electricity production compared to 24.3% twelve months earlier.
Renewables’ share of electrical generation is now second to only that of natural gas whose electrical output actually dropped by 3.6% during the first ten months of 2025.
During the past year, solar and battery storage have dominated capacity additions, coupled with a strong showing by wind:
Between January 1 and October 31, 2025, utility-scale solar capacity grew by 19,477.6-MW while an additional 4,837.7-MW was provided by small-scale solar. EIA foresees continued strong solar growth, with even more utility-scale solar capacity - 36,071.9-MW - being added in the next twelve months.
Explosive growth was also experienced by battery storage which grew by 45.0% since the beginning of the year and added 12,150.3-MW of new capacity. EIA also notes that planned battery capacity additions during the next 12 months total 21,940.4-MW - a further increase of 56%.
Wind has also made a strong showing since January 1, adding 3,796.0-MW, while planned capacity additions over the next year total 9,567.0-MW (on-shore) plus 800.0-MW (off-shore).
On the other hand, during the past ten months, natural gas capacity increased by only 3,479.6-MW and nuclear power added a mere 46.0-MW. Meanwhile, coal capacity plummeted by 3,241.1-MW and petroleum-based capacity fell by an additional 476.3-MW.
Thus, since January 1 - roughly the beginning of the Trump Administration, renewable energy capacity, including battery storage, small-scale solar, hydropower, geothermal, and biomass ballooned by 40,174.4-MW while that of all fossil fuels and nuclear power combined actually declined by 218.0-MW. [3]
In 2026, all net new generating capacity is projected to come from renewables and battery storage:
EIA forecasts the trends seen in 2025 YTD to continue and accelerate during the coming 12-month period.
Utility-scale renewables plus battery storage are projected to increase by 68,528.0-MW (EIA does not provide a forecast for small-scale solar but the SUN DAY Campaign estimates it will provide an additional 7,200-MW). [4]
Meanwhile natural gas capacity will have a net increase of only 4,167.4-MW which will be completely offset by a drop of 4,287.0-MW in coal capacity. Petroleum and “other gases” will decrease by 42.2-MW. In addition, EIA does not project any new growth for nuclear power in the coming year.
Thus, in 2026, all net new capacity growth will be attributable solely to renewables and battery storage.
Should that forecast materialize, by October 31, 2026, the mix of all renewables, including small-scale solar, would reach 504,634.6-MW - almost equal to that of natural gas (514,018.2-MW) - and account for over 36% of U.S. generating capacity.
Moreover, the installed capacity of utility-scale and small-scale solar combined (244,308.6-MW) would surpass that of wind (166,260.3-MW). Solar capacity would also handily exceed that of coal (166,649.5-MW) and more than double that of nuclear power (98,437.2-MW) although the latter two sources would still have significantly higher capacity factors. [5]
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Source:
EIA released its latest “Electric Power Monthly” report on December 23, 2025. The full report can be found at: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly
For the data cited in this release, see:
Table ES1.A (“Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, 2025 and 2024”);
Table ES1.B (“Total Electric Power Industry Summary Statistics, Year-to-Date 2025 and 2024”);
Table 1.1.A (“Net Generation from Renewable Sources”);
Table 6.1 (“Electric Generating Summer Capacity Changes (MW), September 2025 to October 2025”);
Table 6.1.A (“Estimated Net Summer Solar Photovoltaic Capacity from Utility and Small-Scale Facilities”); and
Table 6.07.C (“Usage Factors for Utility-Scale Storage Generators”).
Notes:
[1] In its “Electric Power Monthly” report, EIA refers to small-scale or distributed solar as “Estimated Small Scale Solar Photovoltaic.” Unless otherwise indicated, all calculations presented in this release include electrical generation by small-scale solar which EIA estimates to have totaled 81,887-GWh in January-October 2025 and 7,588-GWh in October alone. Utility-scale solar totaled 260,117-GWh for the first ten months of 2025 and 24,439-GWH in just October.
[2] In January-October 2025, wind produced 376,465-GWh (9.9%) of total U.S. electrical generation while utility-scale and small-scale solar combined produced 342,004-GWh (9.0%), hydropower produced 204,619-GWh (5.4%), biomass produced 38,459-GWh (1.0%), and geothermal produced 13,050-GWh (>0.3%).
[3] EIA presents its capacity data as “summer capacity”. See Table 6.1.
[4] Between November 1, 2024 and October 31, 2025, utility-scale solar accounted for 30,134.9-MW of new capacity while small-scale solar accounted for 6,049.4-MW (or approximately one-sixth of the total). For the next 12 months, EIA anticipates 36,071.9-MW of new utility-scale solar to be added. Assuming the same ratio of utility-scale vs. small-scale solar, that yields an approximation of 7,200-MW in new small-scale solar capacity.
[5] During the first ten months of 2025, EIA reports average monthly capacity factors of 48.8% and 90.3% for coal and nuclear power respectively. By comparison, the average monthly capacity factor for utility-scale PV is 26.1%. See Tables 6.07.A and 6.07.B. Capacity factors for small-scale systems are usually lower – i.e., 10%-25%.
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The SUN DAY Campaign is a non-profit research and educational organization founded in 1992 to support a rapid transition to 100% reliance on sustainable energy technologies as a cost-effective alternative to nuclear power and fossil fuels and as a solution to climate change.
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