The short analysis of the future of hydropower based on statements from various sources reveals several key trends and opinions:
The potential and significance of hydropower:
Russia has significant hydropower potential, which has not yet been fully developed (about 24 % of the possible level).
Hydropower is seen as an important source of «clean» energy and a tool for enhancing the country’s energy security.
Hydroelectric power plants (HEPs) can play a significant role in overcoming energy shortages and promoting the development of regional economies.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that hydropower should grow twice as fast by 2030 to meet the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Economic aspects:
The construction of HEPs requires significant investments and a long payback period (decades), which сдерживает private investors.
State support could be a decisive factor in the development of hydropower.
The development of hydropower can stimulate the economy of the regions: create jobs, develop infrastructure and increase the gross regional product.
Environmental risks and challenges:
Critics point out serious environmental risks: the alienation of large territories, the threat to freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity.
There are risks associated with climate change that could affect the operation of HEPs (droughts, floods).
The high water consumption of hydropower compared to other renewable energy sources is emphasised.
Development prospects:
The active development of small hydropower is being discussed as a more promising and less costly direction.
Modernising existing HEPs could improve their efficiency and power generation with minimal harm to the environment.
Promising regions for the construction of new HEPs are identified: the North Caucasus Federal District, Siberia, Southern Yakutia and the Far Eastern Federal District.
International trends:
In some Central Asian countries, hydropower is still seen as the basis for low-carbon development.
International experts note that about half of the economically viable hydropower potential in the world remains untapped.
Conferences and studies emphasise the need for a balanced approach to the development of hydropower, taking into account environmental and social aspects.
Thus, the future of hydropower depends on resolving several contradictions: between its significant energy potential and environmental risks, between the need for state support and the economic viability of projects. With a careful balance of interests and active modernisation of existing capacities, hydropower could maintain and even strengthen its position in the global energy sector.The chances of introducing new technologies in hydropower, including the HYPOT technology and the construction of large kinetic power plants with a capacity of 1 GW or more, depend on several factors:
Technical readiness and research:
it is necessary to assess how well the HYPOT technology has been developed and tested in real conditions;
an analysis of the technical characteristics and efficiency of kinetic power plants, their advantages and disadvantages compared to traditional hydroelectric power plants (HEPs), is required;
it is important to study what scientific research is being conducted in this area and how advanced they are.
Economic feasibility:
the construction of large power plants requires significant capital investments, and it is necessary to assess whether such projects will be economically profitable;
it is necessary to calculate the payback period and compare it with other types of energy projects;
the cost of operation and maintenance of new types of power plants should be taken into account.
Political and state support:
the introduction of innovative technologies often depends on state policy in the field of energy and climate;
whether state programmes, grants or subsidies for projects using new technologies are possible;
international cooperation and participation in global energy initiatives can contribute to the implementation of such projects.
Environmental aspects:
it is necessary to assess the potential impact of the construction and operation of kinetic power plants on the environment and ecosystems;
compare the environmental risks with traditional hydropower methods and other energy sources;
take into account international and national environmental standards and regulations.
Experience in constructing offshore platforms (using the example of Troll A, B, C):
the technologies used in the construction of the Troll platforms could be adapted for the construction of offshore power plants;
experience in working in difficult sea conditions, logistics and operation in extreme weather conditions may be useful;
however, it is necessary to take into account that the goals and technical requirements for energy facilities may differ from oil and gas platforms.
Legal and regulatory barriers:
compliance of projects with current legislative and regulatory requirements;
the need to develop new standards and regulations for innovative types of power plants.
Competition with other energy sources:
how new technologies in hydropower will be able to compete with solar, wind energy and other renewable sources;
the role of energy carrier prices and state policy regarding different types of energy.
Human and technological resources:
the availability of qualified specialists, engineering and design bureaus capable of implementing such projects;
the availability of necessary technologies and equipment for construction and operation.
Thus, although the potential of new technologies in hydropower is significant, their implementation will depend on the successful resolution of technical, economic, environmental and political challenges.
At present, many scientific studies are being conducted in the field of hydropower, aimed at improving the efficiency, safety and environmental friendliness of hydropower installations. Here are some of the research areas and examples:
Studies of tidal and wave power plants:
new designs of tidal power plants (TPPs) are being developed and tested, for example, the projects of the Kola (320 MW) and Mezen (4,000 MW) TPPs on the White Sea;
the possibilities of using wave energy are being explored — highly efficient wave power plants have already been created, which can operate even in conditions of weak waves or calm. One of the technologies involves installing a vertical pipe on the seabed: a deep-water wave compresses the air in the shaft and drives the turbine.
Improvement of hydraulic turbines:
work is underway to improve existing types of turbines (Francis radial-axial turbine, Kaplan adjustable-blade turbine, Pelton impulse turbine and others) to increase their efficiency and adapt them to various operating conditions;
new materials and technologies for turbine manufacturing are being studied to make them more durable and efficient.
Development of ocean power plants:
power plants using the energy of ocean currents, such as the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio, are being designed. For example, a project of an ocean power plant in the Florida Strait was developed under the direction of the director of the Water and Wind Energy Laboratory at Northeastern University in Boston;
the energy potential of various currents is being assessed and technologies for their efficient use are being developed.
Energy storage systems:
pumped-storage power plants (PSPPs), which allow storing energy and using it during peak demand periods, are being actively researched and implemented;
new methods and technologies to improve the efficiency of energy storage systems are being developed.
Reducing environmental impact:
scientists are working to minimise the negative impact of hydropower facilities on the environment — methods to preserve ecosystems, control water levels and prevent negative changes in hydrological conditions are being researched;
methodologies for assessing and reducing the consequences of dam and reservoir construction for river ecosystems are being developed.
Using non-traditional sources of water energy:
the possibility of using rain energy to generate electricity is being investigated — for example, the Pluvia system uses rainwater flow from gutters to rotate a microturbine;
piezoelectric devices, which can generate energy from movement, including the movement of raindrops, are being studied.
Integration of hydropower into energy systems:
research is being conducted to optimise the operation of hydroelectric power plants within unified energy systems, which allows for more efficient management of electricity production and distribution;
algorithms and technologies for flexible management of hydropower plants, taking into account fluctuations in electricity demand, are being developed.
Research in the field of hydropower is at different stages — from laboratory developments to the implementation of large industrial projects. Many technologies are already being successfully applied, but there is still significant potential for further development and improvement.