Market outlook
Commitment to Net zero gathered global momentum at COP26 in Glasgow. Wind power is poised to play a vital role in accelerating the global energy transition. Coupled with growing energy security concerns triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the mid-term outlook for wind energy is positive.
The CAGR for the next five years under current policies is forecast as 6.6%. GWEC Market Intelligence expects that 557 GW of new capacity will be added in the next five years – that equates to more than 110 GW of new installations each year until 2026.
The CAGR for onshore wind in the next five years is 6.1%, with average annual installations of 93.3 GW. In total, 466 GW is likely to be built in 2022-2026. The CAGR for offshore wind in the next five year is 8.3%.
The annual global offshore market is expected to grow from 21.1 GW in 2021 to 31.4 GW in 2026 under current policies, bringing its share of global new installations from today’s 22.5% to 24.4% by 2026. In total, more than 90 GW of offshore capacity is expected to be added worldwide from 2022-2026.
Despite two years of enormous numbers, the current rate of wind growth is simply not rapid enough to allow the world to reach its Paris Agreement targets or a net zero by 2050 goal. It is important to emphasise that the energy policy environment is in flux and GWEC expects a wave of new policy initiatives to address the gap between current installation rates and the trajectory needed to achieve net zero and energy security.
Given the energy system reform packages underway in Europe and other regions, in light of the Ukraine crisis as of Q2 2022, GWEC Market Intelligence notes that its five-year forecast could be significantly revised upward this year. But policymakers must accelerate permitting procedures for wind projects in the near term and initiate structural market design changes in the mid-term to enable an acceleration in renewable energy deployment
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