A✌️418-word✌️2-minute✌️read
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve have laid out the case that the effort to stem the impact from climate change isn’t working.
The evidence presented included a recent University of Chicago poll that revealed less than favorable American attitudes toward climate change. It also included the climate movement’s own report card of 45 metrics, none of which are on track.
The point is to illustrate the folly of continuing to focus on unattainable goals. The hope is that those that influence the direction of the climate change effort will realize that a reset is essential.
Don’t believe me?
Think I’m just trying to subvert the effort to mitigate climate change?
Would you believe the UN?
Yesterday Axios published a brief article titled: 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙫𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙋𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙨 𝙜𝙤𝙖𝙡𝙨.
The headline is generous. It should read: The vanished Paris goals.
That aside, the UN is as pro a climate change organization is there is, and it has published what it believes to be the reality of the current status.
The below chart speaks volumes. Under current policies the probability of holding warming below 1.5°C is 𝗭𝗘𝗥𝗢.
It does believe that there is an 80% chance of holding warming under 3°C, but that assumes that the powers that be, make good on their stated policies.
The problem with that assumption is that history indicates the very opposite. Most countries have failed to deliver on the promises they have made in their nationally determined contributions or NDCs.
The Axios article noted that the graph showed two things:
▶ Today’s policies won’t achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming well under 2°C with a stretch goal of 1.5°C.
Sound familiar?
▶ The other point is that some of the most catastrophic outcomes now seem out of the picture.
Neither Axios or anyone else knows that to be a fact. And if Axios is assuming that things won’t get worse, that would be a bad assumption.
I’m not saying the situation will deteriorate further, rather there is no guarantee that it won’t. Keep in mind that the record levels of solar and wind installed over the last 20 years were in no small part the byproduct of an ideal environment with few if any headwinds.
Today, headwinds abound. And if a course correction is not executed, it’s more likely than not that things will get worse.
That’s my point.
People need to stop assuming the best case, because moving forward, best case will be nowhere to be found.
#climatechange #climatechangechallenges #climatechangeisreal