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I’ve spent the last two days discussing the impact of the OBBBA and the strategy being deployed by solar, and the climate movement in general. It’s no secret I think both are woefully misguided.
I pick on solar because it’s the 800-pound clean energy gorilla. It’s also the technology that climate advocates have gone “all-in” on.
Going “all-in” on any technology is almost never a good idea. Going “all-in’ on a technology in a relatively nascent industry is tantamount to putting all your chips on “7” on a roulette wheel.
One of the new arguments that the solar industry is attempting, is to claim that turning our back on solar will cede control to China.
Earth to the solar industry: that ship has sailed.
According to a new report by Global Energy Monitor, three-quarters of global solar and wind projects are being constructed by China. Of the almost 700 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and wind in process, 510 gigawatts are within China’s border. And despite the fact that offshore wind is a small percentage of China’s renewable capacity, it contributes to more than 50% of global offshore wind construction.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Let’s look at another clean technology: EVs
BYD has passed Tesla and is now the worldwide leader. According to BloombergNEF, of the estimated 22 million EVs projected to be sold worldwide this year, two-thirds will be sold in China. Bloomberg also estimates that by 2030 EV penetration in China will be 80%. That compares to an estimate of 52% for the EU, the next biggest EV market.
According to Rho Motion, China also leads in the worldwide installation of fast DC chargers. In May, they added 61,000. That’s 12,000 more than the previous month. And China has a target of installing over 100,000 fast chargers throughout the country by 2027.
Let that sink in.
What do solar, wind, and EVs have in common?
They are the most mature clean technologies, and ones that China has focused on for decades.
When faced with such dominance, the strategy isn’t to attempt to go toe-to-toe. That’s suicidal.
The strategy – particularly in an emerging market with a multitude of technological approaches – is to identify weaknesses, and leapfrog your competitor in areas yet to be established.
Granted, China has its fingers in everything, but they don’t enjoy the same commanding lead in alternative approaches that they do in solar, wind, and EVs.
The most promising geothermal technology is in the U.S. Many of the companies pioneering small modular reactor technology are also U.S.-based. Other areas like carbon capture, advanced nanotechnology, and material sciences also offer the opportunity for others to dominate.
The moral of the story: if you want to counter China’s dominance, stop focusing on yesterday’s technology and start focusing on tomorrow’s.
 #solarpower #geothermal #smr #evs