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Renewables
Tony Paradiso
Tony Paradiso
Top Contributor
 · Posted in Renewables

Bill or no Bill, the Damage to Cleantech has just Started

Ađź‘Ź 497-wordđź‘Ź3-minuteđź‘Ź read

I promised not to discuss the “Big Beautiful Bill” again prior to it becoming law. Not that I needed another reason to ignore all the chatter but here’s one: bill or no bill, the impact is already being felt.

Everyone knows that the tax credits will change, and not for the better.  They also know that changes to the FEOC – foreign entity of concern – rules will not be beneficial.

Another macro issue is the environment of uncertainty. This is only partly a byproduct of the unknown fate of the IRA. The state of tariffs, along with the general inability to predict what President Trump may or may not due next, is not conducive for long-term investments.

Add it all up and you have an impact to future demand, which directly impact investment decisions. Regardless of what the final bill looks like, uncertainty will remain. Ironically, the bill’s passage will reduce its level.

In any case, data from E2 came across my desk this morning and I thought it worth sharing. E2 describes itself as a nonpartisan group of business leaders, investors, and professionals who advocate for policies that are good for the economy and environment. Hence the name E2.

I doubt that the organization is completely unbiased. Then again, who is? I also haven’t vetted the data, but I suspect it’s a reasonably accurate snapshot into the damage already done to many of the IRA’s goals.

â–¶ From August 2022 to May 2025 there were a total of 397 projects announced. To date, 62 (16%) have been canceled, closed, or downsized. This includes 19 battery storage, 26 EV, 7 solar and 7 wind projects.

▶ Of the impacted projects, 30 or 55% of the total occurred this year.  

â–¶ The job losses from the impacted projects are projected to be 24,450 - about 18% of the projected new job creation. I would take the employment impact with a grain of salt. Many are temporary construction jobs. The total long-term employment impact is undoubtedly much smaller.

Remember all the talk about the IRA being safe because it focused heavily on Republican states? That logic hasn’t panned out.

â–¶ Of the 397 projects, 245 or 61.7% are in Republican states, 129 (32.5%) are in Democratic state, and 23 (5.8%) are in states with an unknown political affiliation.

â–¶ Of the projects that have been canceled, closed, or downsized, 26 (49.1%) are in Republican states, 14 (26.4%) are Democratic states, and 13 (24.5%) are in states with an unknown political affiliation.

Here’s one of the more interesting stats:

▶ Again, view the jobs data as relative, but according to E2 64% of the job losses are in Democratic states versus only 27.3% in Republican states.  

Given 60% of the announced projects had some connection to a foreign entity, expect these numbers to get far worse – bill or no bill.

 

#solarenergy #windpower #EVs #batterystorage #IRA

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