Co-authored by Russ Johnson, Bent Ear Solutions, and Bill Meehan, Esri
Before I (Russ) discovered GIS, I spent three decades on the fire line. I served as a Smokejumper, Fire Captain, Fire Prevention Specialist, Fire Chief, and Incident Commander for one of the National Wildfire Incident Management Teams. Those years taught me how wildfires ignite, spread, and behave — and how terrain, vegetation, fuel moisture, and weather conspire to shape their path.
As my understanding of fire behavior deepened, GIS became indispensable. It provided a way to analyze how those complex factors interact — modeling risk, predicting spread, and prioritizing mitigation. These experiences now inform how I think about risk, readiness, and resilience — particularly in the electric utility business..
Today, at Bent Ear Solutions, we apply that same geospatial intelligence to help utilities pinpoint and mitigate wildfire risks that threaten their infrastructure and surrounding communities. Esri provides GIS solutions to implement that geospatial intelligence, including the detailed modeling of transmission networks and the immediate environment.
Wildfire Threats to Transmission Systems
Wildfires are no longer a Western problem; they’re a continental one. Across North America, we see more frequent, fast-moving fires intersecting with power infrastructure. Two key risks dominate:
Transmission-caused ignition: A line or substation fault spark can ignite dry vegetation, starting a wildfire.
Wildfire-driven damage: Remote transmission corridors are difficult to access and highly vulnerable once fire strikes. Even without direct ignition, nearby fires can cripple the grid and endanger nearby communities.
GIS and Transmission Resilience
GIS has long supported wildfire response — but its role in transmission planning is just as critical. Consider the 2003 Northeast Blackout: not a wildfire, but a cascading outage sparked by a single line contacting a tree. The lesson still stands — a localized event can bring down an interconnected grid.
Under NERC Standard TPL-001 (Transmission System Planning Performance Requirements), utilities must demonstrate that their systems can withstand normal and extreme conditions. Traditionally, these studies analyze power flow and stability under failure scenarios. But in today’s environment, wildfires are becoming the “supplemental events” that demand attention. This is where geography and reliability meet — and where GIS transforms compliance into resilience.
Why Wildfires Belong in TPL-001 Planning
Wildfires don’t just burn assets; they disrupt the logic of the grid. A single fire front can disable multiple transmission elements simultaneously, creating complex, cascading failures. Lines trip, relays misfire, voltages fluctuate, and the grid destabilizes. Even after containment, scorched terrain, blocked access, and damaged poles complicate repairs.
Utilities are now using GIS to model wildfires as real-world contingencies, not hypothetical ones. By mapping historic perimeters, ignition patterns, vegetation density, and elevation, GIS lets planners anticipate which transmission corridors are most at risk and how those failures might ripple through the network.
How GIS Enhances TPL-001 Compliance
At its core, TPL-001 asks utilities to answer three questions: What can go wrong? Where can it happen? And how do we prevent it from spreading?
GIS answers all three.
Spatial Risk Modeling: Overlay wildfire hazard zones with transmission infrastructure to visualize exposure.
Scenario Simulation: Model multi-element failures where wildfire zones intersect with high-load corridors.
Impact Assessment: Quantify population, infrastructure, and critical-facility exposure in at-risk areas.
Mitigation Planning: Identify where to harden lines, underground assets, or enhance vegetation management.
With GIS, planners move beyond static contingency spreadsheets to dynamic, map-based simulations — seeing, not guessing, where the grid is most vulnerable.
From Compliance to Resilience
Fire-aware planning aligns with emerging regulatory trends. While NERC doesn’t yet mandate wildfire scenarios, utilities — particularly in fire-prone states like California — now treat them as essential. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Orders 1920 and 2222 reinforce this direction, emphasizing resilience, flexibility, and extreme-event preparedness.
GIS is the bridge between planning and protection. It provides the situational intelligence to understand risk spatially — how a single ignition can cascade across both geography and circuitry. Combined with TPL-001, it transforms reactive compliance into proactive resilience.
The Path Forward
In today’s environment, it’s not enough to model the expected — we must model the exceptional. Wildfire-resilient transmission planning is no longer optional. By integrating GIS-based wildfire modeling into TPL-001 studies, utilities can better protect assets, ensure reliability, and keep communities safe when nature fights back. Because when wildfires strike — and they will — keeping the lights on isn’t just about power. It’s about preparedness, foresight, and the ability to see risk before it burns.
For more information on how GIS can support electric utility issues, click here
Contact Bent Ear Solutions at www.bent-ear.com.