In an increasingly unstable world, energy, water, and food systems are no longer shaped by a single risk, but by a double pressure: geopolitical tensions on one side and climate change on the other. Each threat alone is already disruptive, but together they reshape how societies produce, distribute, and secure essential resources. This raises a central question: should resilience focus on surviving wars and geopolitical shocks, or on adapting to a rapidly changing climate that is steadily transforming physical conditions themselves?
Energy
Wars have a profound, complex, and often long-lasting impact on energy supply at the local, regional, and global levels. When a conflict breaks out in an energy-producing or transit area, critical infrastructure — such as oil fields, gas pipelines, refineries, power plants, LNG terminals, electrical grids, or maritime routes — may be damaged, sabotaged, or blocked, leading to an immediate decline in production and exports. This disruption generally causes a sharp increase in oil, gas, and electricity prices on international markets, as governments and companies anticipate shortages or logistical difficulties. Wars also affect global supply chains by limiting maritime transport, increasing cargo insurance costs, and reducing the availability of strategic raw materials required for energy production, such as rare metals used in batteries, solar panels, or electrical grids. In addition, economic sanctions and energy embargoes imposed on countries involved in conflicts can durably reshape global trade flows and force some states to urgently seek new suppliers. At the domestic level, populations frequently experience power outages, fuel shortages, and a rising cost of living.
Climate change significantly increases electricity consumption due to the growing use of air conditioning during heatwaves, even though heating demand may decrease during milder winters. Heatwaves place additional stress on electrical grids by creating simultaneous peaks in consumption, which can increase the risk of blackouts and reduce grid reliability.
At the same time, climate change directly affects the availability of energy production technologies. Fossil fuel power plants, especially thermal and gas-fired plants, depend heavily on water for cooling; during droughts or periods of high water temperatures, their efficiency decreases and some facilities may even be forced to reduce output or temporarily shut down. Nuclear power plants face similar vulnerabilities because they require large amounts of cooling water, and rising river or sea temperatures can limit safe reactor operation. Renewable energy sources are also highly sensitive to changing climate conditions. Hydropower generation is strongly impacted by altered precipitation patterns, prolonged droughts, glacier retreat, and changing river flows, which can significantly reduce electricity production in regions dependent on dams. Wind energy production may become more variable due to changes in wind patterns, storm intensity, and atmospheric conditions, affecting the predictability and stability of power generation. Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems generally benefit from increased solar irradiation in some regions, but excessive heat can reduce panel efficiency and accelerate equipment degradation. Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plants are particularly vulnerable to water scarcity because many facilities require water for cooling and cleaning mirrors, making them less efficient in arid conditions despite strong solar resources. In addition, extreme weather events such as hurricanes, floods, wildfires, sandstorms, and heatwaves can physically damage energy infrastructure, including transmission lines, leading to service disruptions and costly repairs.
In a war scenario, energy technologies can be ranked by their resilience depending on how decentralized they are, how much they depend on fuel supply chains, and how vulnerable their infrastructure is to attack: photovoltaic (PV) solar energy is generally the most resistant because it is highly decentralized, can operate locally on rooftops or microgrids, and does not require fuel transport, followed by wind energy, which is also fuel-free and relatively distributed but still dependent on exposed turbines and transmission lines; hydropower comes next because it is reliable and fuel-independent but relies on large dams that can become strategic targets; nuclear energy provides stable long-term electricity with stored fuel but is highly sensitive due to the catastrophic risks associated with attacks or operational disruption; concentrated solar power (CSP) is less resilient because it relies on large centralized facilities and complex infrastructure often requiring water and maintenance; and fossil fuels are the least resistant since they depend heavily on vulnerable global supply chains, including pipelines, ports, refineries, and transport routes that are easily disrupted by conflict, sanctions, or blockades.
Water
Climate change significantly disrupts the water sector by reducing the availability and stability of water resources. Rising temperatures increase evaporation from soils, rivers, and reservoirs, while changes in precipitation patterns make water supply more irregular, with more frequent droughts in some regions and extreme rainfall in others, leading to both shortages and flooding. The melting of glaciers and the reduction of snowpack also decrease natural water reserves that feed many rivers during dry periods. These changes directly affect drinking water supply, agricultural irrigation, and hydropower production, while also increasing pressure on groundwater resources. In addition, extreme weather events can damage water infrastructure (pumping stations, dams, sanitation networks) and degrade water quality through pollution, salinization, and contamination. Overall, the water sector is becoming more unstable, requiring stronger management, adaptation strategies, and water reuse systems.
Wars have a profound, multidimensional, and often long-lasting impact on the water sector, affecting surface infrastructure, groundwater resources, and treatment systems. In conflict situations, drinking water networks — including pumping stations, dams, reservoirs, and pipelines — can be destroyed, damaged, or abandoned, leading to supply disruptions and increased reliance on unsafe water sources. Wastewater treatment plants are also highly vulnerable: when they are damaged or cease to operate due to lack of electricity or maintenance, wastewater is no longer properly treated, resulting in contamination of soils and water bodies and increasing health risks (such as cholera, etc.). Conflicts also affect groundwater aquifers, which often become a substitute resource during crises: their overexploitation, combined with the absence of regulation and monitoring, can lead to long-term declines in groundwater levels and sometimes salinization, particularly in coastal areas. In regions where desalination is essential, such as the Middle East, desalination plants become strategic infrastructure: they are heavily dependent on energy and facility security, and any power disruption or direct attack can drastically reduce access to drinking water. More broadly, the water sector is highly dependent on energy for pumping, treatment, and distribution, meaning that fuel shortages, sanctions, or destruction of energy infrastructure linked to wars immediately affect the entire water system. Finally, conflicts make it harder to access water treatment chemicals, spare parts, and technical personnel, accelerating service degradation and turning water ---a vital resource---into a major driver of humanitarian crisis and instability.
Food
Climate change and wars together severely weaken agriculture and make food systems much more unstable. On one hand, climate change reduces and makes agricultural yields more unpredictable by causing droughts, heatwaves, extreme rainfall, and soil degradation, while also increasing pests, diseases, and reducing water availability for irrigation. On the other hand, wars worsen these effects by destroying farmland, irrigation systems, rural roads, storage facilities, and supply chains, while also restricting access to essential inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and fuel. Conflicts also disrupt agricultural markets, prevent harvesting or selling crops, and cause population displacement, which reduces the available agricultural workforce. When a country is already affected by climate stress, war can turn reduced production into a major food crisis, as the combination of damaged infrastructure, insecurity, and climatic shocks severely limits farmers’ ability to produce and distribute food. Thus, climate and conflict interact and reinforce each other, creating a cycle of vulnerability that deeply undermines food security.
Ultimately, there is no real choice between geopolitical resilience and climate resilience, because the same systems are exposed to both at once. The most robust solutions are those that reduce dependence on vulnerable supply chains while also adapting to environmental change. In a world defined by uncertainty, resilience is no longer about resisting one threat, but about withstanding their interaction.