Renewables, energy storage, and distributed energy resources are among key tools for decarbonization, yet the unique characteristics and non-dispatchable nature of these resources are often not compatible with the traditional approach to resource planning. Sufficient generation capacity and flexibility, resource adequacy, and power flow are critical to ensuring reliable and functioning generation, transmission, and distribution systems. As more large-scale decarbonization technologies are integrated into the system, energy companies are seeing a need for modeling approaches that can better support decisions around reliability, resource planning, and asset investments.
Many emerging technologies that support decarbonization often stress systems on timelines, at locations, and within sub-systems of power infrastructure that long-term planning models do not typically capture.Â
At EPRI, researchers have finished the first part of a multi-phase project, proposing new modeling approaches that better align with decarbonized systems. EPRI’s Integrated Strategic System Planning (ISSP) researchers have developed a modeling framework and a demonstration study to lay the groundwork for more comprehensive long-term resource planning. Unique to this framework is an analytical toolbox for coordinated planning across generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use systems, which identifies cost-effective and reliable low-carbon electric power.
The approach consists of multiple, existing modeling tools working together; a zonal technology pathways model to develop scenarios of regional generation and transmission technology portfolios; a nodal power system capacity expansion model to develop system-level resource portfolios; a series of grid operations simulation models to evaluate resource adequacy, system risk, production costs, and transmission stability; and distribution planning tools to assess potential network upgrades and non-wires alternatives.
The team demonstrated the modeling framework on a case study of the New York electric power system, showing how it may be applied in practice. The researchers sought to understand the supply, delivery, and demand-side resources that could underpin the New York power system to cost-effectively support meeting a national zero carbon electric sector target by 2035. They based assumptions on nationwide decarbonization, driven by policy and rapid increases in electrification. The study yielded several insights on the capabilities of linking technology pathways and resource planning software tools, and the process of physically making those links a reality.
Overall, the case study evaluated the process to link tools, delivered insights for reproducing and implementing the ISSP framework at electric companies and other planning entities, and identified knowledge gaps and ongoing planning challenges for continuing research.Â
Key insights included:
- Regional planning with a comprehensive representation of emerging technologies, neighboring markets, and regional and national policy provides an important starting point for selecting candidate technology solutions for the region of study
- An informed siting strategy provides an efficient way to identify storage and other location-specific resource options for future system reliability support
- A multi-step approach for system cost and reliability analyses leads to more robust solutions
- Wide area distribution analysis methods can provide a useful perspective for potential cost-effective solutions on the distribution system
- Automated processes for data adjustments and transfer between models can reduce errors and make scenario analysis more efficient
Results also indicated that improving power system reliability does not necessarily come with higher costs. For example, economic transmission upgrades can offset higher fixed and other costs under certain conditions, and in some cases, can even result in lower total costs. The ISSP modeling framework is generalizable and intended to be applied using a range of power system modeling tools already in use by electric companies and other industry stakeholders.Â
To further this research and expand on this initiative, EPRI is convening a collaborative interest group designed for participants to exchange information and processes for implementing integrated strategic system planning with experts and electric company peers. The ISSP interest group will share resources and process steps to help build and/or improve a framework for integrated planning, and help members identify next steps for implementing and improving an integrated system plan within their organizations.
To learn more about the project, visit the ISSP interest group page.Â