As of early September 2025, gas prices remain highly sensitive to a confluence of seasonal, structural, and geopolitical dynamics. Unseasonably cool weather across the central and eastern U.S. has tempered air-conditioning demand, while Europe’s recent shift from intense southern heat to cooler northern air fronts signals a broader meteorological transition. Meanwhile, the NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook warns of elevated cyclone risks in key regions, adding further uncertainty to supply chains. On the structural front, European gas storage levels — currently at 78% — sit below last year’s peak but remain well above historical norms, offering a buffer against volatility. At the same time, elevated LNG exports continue to exert downward pressure on global pricing, reinforcing the complex correlations between regional conditions and international energy flows.
Storage Levels USA: Central and East Storage Hubs Leading the Build
As of August 29, 2025, U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3,272 billion cubic feet (Bcf), reflecting a net injection of 55 Bcf from the prior week. Inventories are currently 73 Bcf below last year’s level but remain 173 Bcf above the five-year average, placing stocks comfortably within the historical range.
Regionally, the South Central and East storage hubs led the build, contributing significantly to the overall increase, while smaller gains were seen in the Mountain and Pacific. This steady pace of injections highlights both strong supply and moderate demand as milder weather reduces power burn, allowing more gas to flow into storage. With levels trending well above the five-year norm, the U.S. is entering autumn with a robust storage cushion, reducing short-term supply risk and tempering upward price pressure in the natural gas market.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Temperatures 6–12°C Below Normal, Except TX
Late August brought an unseasonably cool spell to much of the central and eastern U.S., sharply reducing air-conditioning demand. Temperatures plunged 6–12°C below normal in those regions, with some nighttime lows under 10°C and daytime highs only 15–25°C – an early autumn chill for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and East Coast. This pattern was driven by a strong upper-level cold pool from Canada funneling Arctic air southward. The result was a significant drop in cooling degree days in the eastern U.S., as households and businesses needed less cooling. In early September, the cool air mass persisted in the East, though a gradual warm-up from the west was expected by mid-week.
Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php?element=T
Meanwhile, the western and southern U.S. remained seasonably warm. High-pressure systems kept the West hot and dry (daily highs ~28–33°C in parts of California and the Southwest). Southern states like Texas and Louisiana also continued to see above-normal heat and humidity, sustaining heavy air-conditioning use. For example, Dallas is experiencing a late-summer uptick in temperatures (though not as extreme as mid-summer) that requires continuous cooling. Overall, the cooler-than-average conditions in the Northeast and Midwest tempered electricity demand for cooling, partially offset by ongoing cooling needs in the hot South and West.
Source: https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/conus.php?element=PoP12
Looking ahead, the forecast indicates that central and eastern states will continue to experience cooler-than-normal conditions (1–3°C below seasonal averages), with fluctuating, variable weather. Nights will feel distinctly autumnal. Meanwhile, the West and South are expected to maintain near- or slightly above-normal warmth (+1–2°C), though no extreme heat events are forecast.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
The NOAA Global Tropics Hazards Outlook for mid-to-late September highlights elevated tropical cyclone risks in the western Pacific, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic. Week 2 (Sep 10–16) shows strong cyclone formation potential along with above-average rainfall in equatorial Africa and parts of the Pacific, while some equatorial zones face below-average rainfall. Week 3 (Sep 17–23) continues the tropical cyclone threat and keeps the same rainfall anomalies, with above-average temperatures in the Caribbean and Central America. In short, the outlook points to an active storm period with uneven rainfall and heat risks across tropical regions.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
During the week of August 27 to September 3, Cooling Degree Days (CDD) across the major U.S. gas-consuming states remained elevated but showed signs of easing from peak summer levels. Texas (111 CDD) and Louisiana (113 CDD) continued to drive strong cooling demand as persistent heat and humidity kept air-conditioning usage high. Florida followed with very strong cooling needs at 122 CDD, reflecting sustained tropical warmth. By contrast, California registered a more moderate 48 CDD, while New York was far lower at only 15 CDD, consistent with the cooler conditions that spread across the Northeast.
Moving into the period September 5 to September 9, forecasts indicate a gradual moderation in overall CDDs, with the Midwest and East expected to see milder conditions as autumn air masses begin to influence temperatures. However, the southern tier, especially Texas, Louisiana, and Florida, will maintain above-normal heat, ensuring continued demand for gas-fired power generation to support cooling. In natural gas terms, this means that while aggregate U.S. demand for power burn may decline slightly from late-summer highs, the Southern states remain the primary source of weather-driven demand, keeping overall consumption well above seasonal lows. This transition marks the beginning of the shoulder season, where regional contrasts between lingering southern heat and northern cooling trends start to balance out, softening the extreme summer-driven pressures on gas markets.
Meanwhile, weighted CDD declined sharply, falling below the seasonal norm. The drop was particularly noticeable compared with earlier in August, when CDDs consistently exceeded the 30-year average. CDD will remain suppressed, staying on the lower end of the normal range. This implies that gas demand for cooling will remain relatively weak as the U.S. enters the early autumn transition, with milder conditions across the East and Midwest offsetting lingering late-summer heat in the South. For natural gas markets, this means weather-driven demand is easing, pointing to softer power burn and greater opportunity for storage injections, reducing near-term bullish pressure on prices.
Europe’s Weather Conditions: More Humidity in the Northern Part
In Europe, weather conditions have also turned more benign after the summer heatwaves. Over the past week, a high-pressure system that brought intense heat to southern Europe began to weaken, giving way to cooler air fronts from the north. This transition brought a spell of cooler, wetter weather to Northern Europe, including rain and daytime highs only around 14–18°C. By contrast, Southern and Central Europe saw pleasant late-summer conditions: afternoon temperatures generally 20–26°C (with nights ~10–15°C), which is comfortable and actually 1–3°C above the seasonal norm. In other words, much of Europe is experiencing mild, early-autumn warmth rather than extreme heat or cold. Drought and dryness persist in parts of the Mediterranean south, but no new heatwave has been plotted across the continent.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
Looking ahead, warmer-than-average weather is expected to continue into September and even into the start of the heating season in October. Daytime highs are projected to remain in the 18–24°C range for most of Europe (up to ~28–30°C in the far south), with northern regions seeing periodic rain and further cooling. Such a warmer-than-normal early autumn will delay significant heating demand.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/GFS_forecasts.shtml
The current European weather is keeping gas demand relatively subdued. With no need for heating yet (thanks to the mild temperatures) and only moderate air-conditioning demand (confined to the warmer southern countries), natural gas consumption for climate control is low for early September. Ample sunshine and comfortable temperatures are boosting renewable generation (solar, wind) in some areas, further reducing gas-for-power usage. The lack of a late-summer heatwave in Northwest Europe and the post-heatwave cooldown in the north mean utilities haven’t had to burn extra gas for either cooling or early heating.
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Still Strong, but Eased Marginally
U.S. natural gas production showed a slight decline over the latest reporting week, with dry gas output down by 0.5% (0.6 Bcf/d) to average 107.2 Bcf/d. Supply was further reduced by a small drop in pipeline imports from Canada, highlighting how cooler temperatures have already begun to temper domestic demand.
On the export side, LNG activity remained strong but eased marginally: average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals fell by 0.3 Bcf/d to 16.1 Bcf/d. Within this, flows to terminals in South Louisiana declined by 0.5% and to South Texas by 5.9%, while deliveries outside the Gulf Coast held steady at 1.1 Bcf/d. Despite the modest dip in pipeline receipts, LNG exports remained robust, with 26 vessels departing U.S. ports between August 28 and September 3, carrying an estimated 100 Bcf of LNG. The bulk of departures came from Sabine Pass, Plaquemines, Corpus Christi, and Freeport, underscoring the U.S.’s role as a key global LNG supplier. Overall, while production edged lower and LNG flows softened slightly, exports remain historically strong, maintaining U.S. influence on global gas balances.
European Gas Storage Levels: Eastern Europe Shows Some Shortfalls
As of early September 2025, European gas storage levels stand at around 78% full, which is notably lower than last year’s very high levels (92–93% in 2023–2024) but still comfortably above the 2021 mark of 67%. The current trajectory shows steady injections through the summer, although the pace has been somewhat slower compared to the record build-ups of the past two years. This means that while Europe is entering the autumn heating season with less of a cushion than last year, stocks remain within a safe operational range and are expected to continue rising in the weeks ahead. Overall, Europe is in a relatively stable position, though slightly less secure than in 2022–2024, and weather conditions in September and October will be crucial for determining whether inventories reach the 90% target before winter.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
Europe’s gas storage shows a mixed but generally stable picture. Most of Western and Southern Europe, including Spain, France, Italy, and Germany, is holding at high to very high levels, giving these countries a comfortable buffer heading into autumn. Central Europe, such as Poland and Austria, is at a solid mid-to-high level, suggesting good progress in storage builds but still slightly behind the strongest performers. By contrast, some regions in Northern Europe, particularly Sweden, remain at a moderate level, reflecting slower filling compared to the continental average. The weakest positions are seen in parts of Eastern Europe, where storage is low, highlighting potential supply vulnerabilities ahead of winter. Overall, Europe as a whole is in a generally secure position, but regional disparities underline where resilience is stronger and where risks remain elevated.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
In the past week, natural gas prices have shown notable fluctuations both in the U.S. and in Europe. At Henry Hub, U.S. benchmark prices had been trading mostly within the range of $2.85 to $3.12/MMBtu, closing near $3.11/MMBtu. The market briefly dipped below $2.90/MMBtu earlier in the week but rebounded strongly. In Europe, the TTF Dutch benchmark held around €31.9/MWh, equivalent to roughly $9.7/MMBtu, with intraday volatility linked to LNG import flows and storage progress. Despite some spikes, both benchmarks remain anchored by comfortable storage levels and the absence of extreme weather shocks.
The near-term outlook suggests relatively stable to slightly softer prices. In the U.S., mild early-September weather is reducing power burn demand, while storage sits above the five-year average. This is likely to cap upside potential unless an unexpected heatwave or hurricane disrupts supply. Prices are forecast to remain in the $2.90–$3.20/MMBtu range over the coming week. In Europe, high storage levels and strong LNG inflows provide a buffer, though localized risks such as maintenance at Norwegian fields and potential tropical cyclone impacts on LNG shipping routes could add volatility. Still, TTF prices are expected to hover around $9.5–$10/MMBtu in the short term, reflecting a well-supplied market moving into autumn.