The current price of natural gas is being influenced by a variety of factors, including unusual weather patterns in the United States and Europe, robust gas storage levels, and strong global demand. In the U.S., a surge of cold air has brought winter-like conditions to the Central and Southern regions, leading to higher-than-expected cooling demand. Meanwhile, Europe is bracing for a sharp temperature drop and the onset of a cold wave. European gas storage levels are currently at about 82% full, which, while not at a record high, is comfortably above the levels seen in 2021. This, combined with strong exports of LNG and traders pricing in upcoming seasonal shifts, is contributing to the current market dynamics.
Storage Levels, USA: Staying above 5 Year Average
As of September 25, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage reached 3,508 Bcf, according to the EIA. This marks a weekly net injection of 75 Bcf, bringing total inventories 22 Bcf higher than last year at the same time and a substantial 203 Bcf above the five-year average.Â
Regionally, the largest gains came from the East (26 Bcf) and Midwest (25 Bcf), with steady builds also observed in the South Central and Pacific regions. The Mountain region posted a smaller increase, but still contributed positively to the overall total.
USA Weather Conditions: More Contrasting across the Continent
Over the past week, the United States experienced highly contrasting weather conditions. The East Coast saw unusually cool weather, with temperatures several degrees below normal. In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, however, conditions were moderate, with daytime highs ranging between 20 and 27°C. In the central and southern parts of the country, a surge of cold air from the northwest brought winter-like storms and even snow, producing temperature anomalies of 15–20 degrees below average across the Great Plains. Meanwhile, the northern states stayed closer to seasonal norms.
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current Â
Looking forward, temperatures are expected to gradually settle near autumn averages. Daytime highs will mostly range between 17–23°C, while nighttime lows are forecast to fall to 9–12°C. High-pressure systems will bring relatively dry and stable weather, without extreme cold or heat events. These conditions are characteristic of the seasonal transition from summer to autumn.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Â Â
During the week of September 17–23, 2025, cooling degree days (CDD) across the major U.S. demand centers showed a mixed picture. Florida remained the dominant driver of cooling demand with a very high total of 116 CDDs, consistent with the persistent late-summer heat and humidity in the Southeast. Texas and Louisiana also recorded significant totals of 80 CDDs and 88 CDDs, respectively, though both were lower than the peak summer period, reflecting the transition into a milder autumn climate. California posted a more moderate 29 CDDs, consistent with seasonal cooling along the West Coast, while New York registered only 14 CDDs, as the Northeast entered a cooler phase with limited air-conditioning needs. Overall, the weighted U.S. CDD index declined compared with peak summer levels, signaling a softening of power-sector natural gas demand tied to cooling.
Looking ahead to September 26–30, 2025, the forecast indicates further seasonal moderation. Texas and Louisiana are expected to continue cooling into more autumn-like conditions, reducing regional CDDs and thus lowering natural gas demand for electricity. California should see a steady decline as coastal and inland areas cool further, while New York will remain close to minimal CDD values as the Northeast firmly transitions into fall. By contrast, Florida is forecast to maintain elevated CDDs with persistently hot and humid weather, keeping regional cooling demand high. This divergence highlights a split market: Southeastern states remain strong contributors to power burn, but the broader trend across most of the country points toward easing demand.
Between September 17 and 24, 2025, population-weighted cooling degree days (CDDs) in the U.S. remained above the climatological normal. Actual weighted CDDs averaging around 7–9 per day, compared with the normal range that steadily declined from ~8 to ~6 during this period. This means cooling demand was still stronger than seasonal expectations, particularly in the South and Southeast, helping to sustain natural gas consumption for power generation. The higher-than-normal CDDs indicated that despite the calendar shift toward autumn, late-season heat pockets continued to support cooling needs across major load centers. The weighted CDD curve begins to ease, trending closer to the climatological average of ~5 CDDs per day. The projection shows actual CDDs aligning more tightly with the normal band, with occasional dips near the lower edge of the ±2σ range. This suggests a clear transition into autumnal conditions: cooling demand will weaken, particularly in northern and western regions, while only the southern tier (notably Florida and the Gulf states) will continue to see meaningful cooling loads. For the natural gas market, this shift implies reduced pressure from power-sector demand, as air-conditioning requirements diminish, giving storage injections more room before heating demand picks up later in the season.
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Arctic Cold Air to Flow In
In Europe, a significant change in weather patterns is anticipated toward the end of September. A blocking high over the North Atlantic will shift airflow to a north–south direction, allowing Arctic cold air to flow into Western Europe. From September 29 onward, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and other parts of Western Europe are forecast to see a sharp temperature drop and the onset of a cold wave. Temperatures are expected to fall below seasonal averages, accompanied by possible precipitation and unstable conditions. In Eastern and Southeastern Europe, weather will remain milder for now but with a gradual cooling trend through the week.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml Â
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Slight Decline as Rig Count Lower
U.S. natural gas production showed a slight decline. Average dry gas output decreased by 0.2 Bcf/d, bringing production down to about 107.0 Bcf/d. This dip reflects small operational adjustments rather than a structural shift in supply. In addition, net imports from Canada dropped by 0.3 Bcf/d (a 5.8% decline), further reducing the overall U.S. supply balance. The natural gas rig count remained stable at 118 rigs, unchanged from the prior week. Although some regions saw movement — Eagle Ford dropped one rig while the Utica gained one — overall gas-directed drilling activity stayed flat. Compared with last year, however, the total U.S. rig count remains lower, with 539 rigs active, which is 51 fewer rigs than at the same time in 2024. This suggests that supply growth potential is somewhat constrained even as production remains historically strong.
On the LNG front, U.S. export activity continues to provide strong support for the market. Pipeline receipts into LNG export facilities averaged 16.2 Bcf/d, up by 0.1 Bcf/d compared to the previous week. Regional flows were mixed: deliveries to South Louisiana terminals eased slightly, down 0.2 Bcf/d to 10.9 Bcf/d, while South Texas facilities saw an increase of 0.3 Bcf/d, bringing inflows there to 4.2 Bcf/d. Deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast dipped by 0.1 Bcf/d to 1.0 Bcf/d.
At the same time, U.S. LNG export vessels remained active. Between September 11 and September 17, a total of 24 LNG cargoes departed U.S. ports with a combined carrying capacity of about 92 Bcf. This included seven tankers from Sabine Pass, five from Plaquemines, four from Corpus Christi, three each from Cameron and Freeport, and two from Calcasieu Pass. The high volume of departures underscores the strong international demand for U.S. LNG, particularly from Europe as it prepares for the winter season.
The slight dip in domestic production combined with steady to rising LNG exports highlights the growing role of global demand in balancing the U.S. market. Although residential and commercial demand in the U.S. fell with milder weather, power generation and LNG exports absorbed significant volumes of gas. This dynamic suggests that even modest supply fluctuations can impact price sentiment when export flows remain near record levels.
European Gas Storage Levels: Above the Low of 2021
As of late September 2025, European gas storage levels are relatively high but not at record levels compared to recent years. Inventories currently stand at about 82% full, which is comfortably above the low benchmarks of 2021 (around 73%) yet below the exceptional highs of 2023 and 2020, both near 94 –95%. This means that Europe enters the colder season with a solid buffer, though not as overstocked as in the past two years when extraordinary efforts were made to maximize reserves.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
At the moment, European gas storage shows a very uneven picture across the continent. In Western and Central Europe, storage is at an average to high level, with countries like France, Germany, Spain, and Italy maintaining strong reserves close to seasonal readiness. Much of Central Europe, including Poland and Austria, is also in the comfortable to high range, ensuring good supply security heading into autumn. In contrast, Northern Europe is showing lower levels: Sweden and Denmark stand out with significantly weaker storage, well below the European core. This indicates more vulnerability in those markets if early cold weather materializes. Eastern Europe presents an even sharper divide. Ukraine currently has very low storage, raising concerns about resilience and supply flexibility, while countries like Romania and Bulgaria maintain more moderate reserves.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map Â
In summary, Europe’s storage position is strong but not excessive: well above vulnerable levels, yet below the record highs of recent years. This balance indicates stability for now, but with a tighter margin of safety should cold weather arrive earlier than expected or LNG flows face disruption.
Conclusion
Natural gas prices in both the U.S. and Europe have shown volatility over the past week but remain within a relatively stable band. In the U.S., Henry Hub prices hovered around $2.79–3.05/MMBtu, with a brief dip midweek before recovering to end near $2.93/MMBtu. The softness earlier in the week reflected the influence of high storage injections and mild September weather, which curbed cooling demand. However, prices regained ground as LNG exports remained robust and traders priced in upcoming seasonal shifts. In Europe, Dutch TTF prices traded in the €31.8–33/MWh range, roughly equivalent to $9.5–10/MMBtu. The market showed similar midweek weakness before rebounding, supported by expectations of cooler weather in Western Europe and concerns about uneven storage levels across the continent. While storage on average is strong, some countries maintain lower reserves, leaving the system more sensitive to early cold spells.
Looking ahead to the final week of September and into early October, natural gas prices are expected to remain range-bound but slightly firm. In the U.S., Henry Hub is forecast to trade in the $2.85–3.10/MMBtu range. Mild autumn weather and above-average storage will cap upside potential, but continued high LNG exports and the possibility of early heating demand provide support against a deeper decline. For Europe, prices are likely to stay elevated relative to U.S. benchmarks, with Dutch TTF expected in the $9.5–11/MMBtu equivalent range. The forecasted cold snap in Western Europe at the end of September could temporarily boost demand and push prices toward the upper bound. However, the strong overall storage position should limit extreme spikes unless colder-than-expected weather persists into October.