As of mid-September 2025, the natural gas market is being shaped by a mixed bag of meteorological and logistical factors. Thus, in the U.S., a significant cold wave, driven by a southward flow of Arctic air, is creating strong regional demand, which could impact short-term price dynamics. Conversely, Europe is experiencing a milder autumn, with above-normal temperatures in the southeastern regions, tempering typical seasonal demand. Despite these weather-driven fluctuations, U.S. working gas in underground storage remains comfortably above the five-year average. Meanwhile, while the overall U.S. natural gas supply has remained stable, eyeing a slight weekly dip in production, coupled with high overseas demand keeping LNG exports robust, is tightening the market and providing a floor for domestic prices.
Storage Levels USA: Now Above Five-year Average
As of September 12, 2025, U.S. working gas in underground storage stood at 3,433 Bcf, reflecting a strong weekly build of +90 Bcf. This level is only 4 Bcf below last year’s mark at the same time, but importantly it is 204 Bcf above the five-year average.
Regionally, injections were broad-based, led by the Midwest (+30 Bcf) and the South Central region (+29 Bcf). Both salt and nonsalt facilities contributed, with salt caverns adding +12 Bcf and Nonsalt fields +16 Bcf.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Regional Contrasts to Persist
Over the past week, the United States experienced a significant cold wave caused by a strong cross-polar flow of Arctic air moving southward through Canada. Temperatures fell 10–20°F (5–10°C) below normal across the Northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and the East Coast. In these regions, conditions resembled late autumn, with lows in the upper 30s°F and low 40s°F (about 3–6°C).
Source: https://www.mesonet.org/weather/air-temperature/maximum-minimum-air-temperature-difference?ref=1324
The synoptic situation featured a strong anticyclone in the West and a deep cyclone in the East, producing sharp pressure contrasts and enhancing the polar jet stream that funneled Arctic air southward. The cold front advanced gradually from north to south, covering most of the eastern half of the country by the end of the week. In contrast, the western U.S. remained warm and dry under the influence of high pressure, while the southern states, particularly Florida, saw humid and rainy weather due to a stationary front and moist Atlantic air.
Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
Looking ahead, the forecast for the coming week suggests high pressure will dominate much of the country, bringing mainly stable and dry weather. At the 500 hPa level, positive geopotential height anomalies are expected — especially over eastern Canada and parts of the U.S. East Coast, indicating the blocking influence of the anticyclone. This situation will limit further intrusions of Arctic air. The western and southern parts of the U.S. will stay warmer than average, while the central regions may see only minor pressure shifts without major precipitation or cold spells. Temperatures are forecast to be mainly above normal, by around 1–2°C, particularly on the West Coast, in the Southwest, the Great Lakes region, and the East Coast. Some areas of the Midwest could experience near-normal readings depending on atmospheric pressure patterns.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Between September 10 and September 17, cooling demand across the United States showed mixed dynamics. In the southern states, particularly Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, cooling degree days (CDD) remained persistently high, reflecting strong late-summer heat. Each of these states accumulated 108 CDD over the week, pointing to continued heavy use of air conditioning and, thus, robust electricity and natural gas demand for power generation. California registered a more moderate 49 CDD, consistent with its more variable coastal climate, while New York recorded only 11 CDD, indicating a clear seasonal transition toward autumn with much lower cooling needs. Overall, the weighted CDD curve shows a downward trend from the midsummer peak, but demand is still significant in the southern tier, supporting localized gas consumption for power.
During the forecast period of September 18 through September 23, the regional contrast is expected to persist. The southern states will continue to see elevated cooling requirements as late-season heat lingers, keeping CDD totals high in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana. California should maintain moderate cooling demand, while New York will remain cool and comfortable, with little to no need for air conditioning. From the perspective of natural gas markets, this means aggregate U.S. cooling demand will remain supported by the southern load centers, though the nationwide weighted CDD is expected to drift lower as northern states exit the cooling season. This transition underscores the movement into the shoulder period, where southern heat continues to prop up power sector gas demand, but the broader national picture begins shifting toward neutral conditions ahead of the heating season.
Cooling demand in the U.S. trended slightly above normal as late-summer warmth persisted. The weighted CDD line shows values climbing back from the dip earlier in the month, reaching levels just above the seasonal norm. This indicates that despite the broader seasonal transition, significant demand for cooling remained in population-weighted regions, particularly in the South and West. The above-normal CDDs during this week translated into continued natural gas consumption for power generation, as air conditioning loads stayed elevated. The weighted CDDs are projected to remain steady, staying at or just above the normal range. The persistence of above-normal CDDs ensures that natural gas demand will not yet ease significantly, keeping prices underpinned by weather-driven consumption.
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Warmer-than-Usual September
In Europe, the past week was generally warm with localized areas of heat and chill. Southeastern Europe, including the Balkans, recorded above-normal temperatures with anomalies up to +1–2°C, making for a warmer-than-usual September. In contrast, northern and northwestern Europe experienced more variable, cool, and rainy conditions under the influence of Atlantic cyclones.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
The forecast for the coming week points to continued warmth in the southern parts of Europe, with anomalies around +0.5 to +1.0°C. Synoptic conditions will favor moderate westerly winds with intervals of anticyclonic influence, providing mainly stable and dry weather, though northern and eastern areas may see occasional rainfall.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/GFS_forecasts.shtml
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Dip in Gas-focused Rigs Highlights Cautious Approach
U.S. natural gas supply remained broadly stable but saw a slight weekly decline. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, average total supply fell by 0.1% (0.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous week. Dry gas production dipped by 0.4% (0.5 Bcf/d) to 107.2 Bcf/d. This modest pullback is linked to marginal slowdowns in some producing regions. Meanwhile, imports from Canada provided some offset, rising by 0.3 Bcf/d (6.7%). On the upstream side, rig activity continues to show restraint. The natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig, bringing the total to 118. Overall, the U.S. total rig count now stands at 537 rigs, still 45 fewer than a year ago. While oil-directed rigs rose slightly, the dip in gas-focused rigs highlights the cautious investment environment despite prices holding above $3/MMBtu. This reflects producers’ focus on capital discipline and efficiency rather than aggressive growth, even as LNG demand grows.
Pipeline receipts to LNG terminals averaged 16.0 Bcf/d, down only 0.1 Bcf/d from the prior week, signaling a near-record pull from the export sector. Deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana fell modestly (–0.2 Bcf/d to 11.1 Bcf/d), while South Texas gained slightly (+0.1 Bcf/d to 3.9 Bcf/d). Other U.S. regions held steady at 1.1 Bcf/d.
The production side is showing slight weakness as output dips and rig counts remain soft. However, LNG exports continue to operate at very high capacity, ensuring a strong outlet for U.S. supply. Together, these trends create a balanced market: ample storage and mild weather are capping prices, but firm LNG demand prevents them from falling much below $3/MMBtu.
European Gas Storage Levels: Moderately Below the Benchmark
As of mid-September 2025, according to the most recent aggregated data, Europe’s natural gas storage is at about 81% full. This level is significantly lower than the exceptionally high storage volumes of 2023 and 2024, when stocks exceeded 93% at the same time of year, but still above the weaker position of 2021, which stood near 71%. Compared with 2022, when levels were roughly 85%, this year’s inventories are moderately below that benchmark as well. In practical terms, Europe enters the early autumn period with a comfortable but not record-breaking storage buffer. This suggests that the region is in a secure position to meet near-term gas demand, though the reduced cushion compared with last year leaves less margin in the event of a colder-than-expected winter. The current 81% level is broadly aligned with EU regulatory requirements for pre-winter preparedness, yet it highlights the market’s sensitivity to weather patterns and LNG inflows over the coming months.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
Currently, Europe’s gas storage picture is quite mixed across regions. Western and Southern Europe — including countries like France, Spain, and Italy — are in a strong position with storage at high to very high levels, close to full capacity. This provides these countries with a comfortable buffer ahead of the heating season. Central Europe (Germany, Austria, Poland, Czechia) holds storage at average to moderately high levels, generally sufficient to meet early autumn demand but not as abundant as in the West. In contrast, Northern Europe shows weaker levels: Sweden and its neighboring countries exhibit relatively low storage, making them more vulnerable if an early cold spell occurs. The Baltic states and parts of Eastern Europe, notably Ukraine, also have very low reserves, which could pose risks later in the winter if supply inflows slow. This uneven distribution means that while much of Western Europe can rely on strong inventories, pockets of vulnerability remain in the north and east, potentially adding a layer of regional risk to the broader European market.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Overall, Europe’s gas storage is solid on average, but the regional disparities are important: some countries are well-prepared, while others face low stocks that may expose them to higher price volatility if demand surges unexpectedly.
Conclusion
Over the past week, natural gas prices in both Europe and the U.S. have shown moderate volatility without unveiling major breakouts. In Europe, the Dutch TTF benchmark traded in the €31.74–33.00/MWh range, with the latest price at about €32.62/MWh, equivalent to roughly $9.7–9.9/MMBtu. Prices dipped midweek but recovered as the market weighed steady LNG arrivals, relatively mild weather, and strong but not record-high storage. The overall trend suggests that ample supply and stable storage conditions are keeping prices capped, though traders are sensitive to weather shifts and LNG delivery dynamics. In the U.S., Henry Hub prices have oscillated between $2.90 and $3.15/MMBtu, now sitting near $3.09/MMBtu. The market remains supported by persistent LNG export demand and a brief early-season cold wave that boosted heating requirements in parts of the country, but pressure from above-average storage levels has prevented sustained rallies. The recent rebound above $3 reflects the balance between strong exports and healthy domestic stocks.