The natural gas market is currently experiencing elevated volatility, shaped by a complex mix of physical supply/demand fundamentals and significant macro-political decisions. On the demand side, extreme weather conditions are sending conflicting signals: a late-season heatwave is sustaining strong residual cooling demand across the central and southern U.S. (with highs near 37 °C), while Northern Europe grapples with early frost conditions and near 0 °C lows. These weather anomalies amplify price sensitivity, particularly as the market balances a backdrop of slightly lower U.S. production against the positive signal of an overall increase in domestic gas storage. However, the persistent demand created by high LNG exports continues to link the U.S. closely to global prices, overriding some inventory comfort. Adding a significant layer of macro uncertainty, the industry is also factoring in the impact of political actions, such as the Trump administration's decision to freeze $18 billion in funding designated for New York and $8 billion for green-energy projects in Democratic states, moves that could signal future regulatory headwinds and shift capital allocation for energy development.
Storage Levels USA: Higher than Last Year at This Time
As of September 26, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,561 Bcf, according to the EIA. This represents a net weekly injection of 53 Bcf compared with 3,508 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 21 Bcf higher than last year at this time and stand 171 Bcf above the five-year average, highlighting a storage position comfortably above seasonal benchmarks.
Regionally, the Midwest (+27 Bcf) and East (+25 Bcf) registered the largest weekly gains. The Mountain (+3 Bcf) and Pacific (+2 Bcf) regions also added modest volumes. By contrast, the South Central region declined by 4 Bcf to 1,186 Bcf, reflecting a 7 Bcf draw in salt facilities partly offset by a 4 Bcf increase in nonsalt stocks. Overall, these moves net to the 53 Bcf injection across the Lower 48.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Temperature Contrast Rising Across Regions
Over the past week, the United States experienced a sharp contrast in weather patterns, driven by alternating high-pressure ridges and intrusions of cooler air from Canada. The central and southern regions, including parts of the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, saw a surge of late-season heat, with highs reaching the upper 90s°F (around 37–38°C) and setting new temperature records in cities such as Washington, Philadelphia, and Columbus. These conditions were notably above seasonal averages and marked an early-October anomaly.
In contrast, the northern tier and much of the Northwest trended cooler, with daytime temperatures holding in the 50s°F and overnight lows dipping into the 40s°F (6–12°C), closer to or slightly below seasonal norms. The West Coast enjoyed relatively stable and dry weather, while the Great Plains and Upper Midwest faced scattered showers and thunderstorms along passing cold fronts. The Southeast remained mostly dry with pockets of warmth, though Florida held on to subtropical heat near 80°F. Overall, the synoptic setup highlighted the early clash between lingering summer-like warmth in the South and advancing autumnal air masses across the North and West.
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
During the period of October 9–15, 2025, the United States is forecast to experience predominantly above-normal temperatures across much of the country. The central and southern states, including the Plains, Midwest, and Southeast, show the strongest probability of warmer-than-average conditions, with anomalies most pronounced in the Mississippi Valley and southern Great Plains. The East Coast, from New England through the Mid-Atlantic, is also expected to remain warmer than normal, reinforcing the persistence of mild autumn conditions.
In contrast, the western states, particularly the Pacific Northwest and parts of California, are projected to stay closer to seasonal norms, offering a more typical October climate with highs ranging from the mid-50s to low 70s°F (10–22°C). Alaska and Hawaii also lean warmer than average, consistent with broader hemispheric circulation patterns. Overall, the outlook favors a stable, anticyclonic regime with relatively dry conditions, minimal storm activity, and only weak temperature anomalies. This suggests a gentle continuation of the seasonal transition into mid-autumn, with little indication of significant cold surges or early winter outbreaks.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
During the week of September 30–October 6, 2025, total degree days (CDD+HDD) across the major U.S. demand centers highlighted a distinct seasonal transition. Florida led with 102 degree days, maintaining elevated cooling needs under persistent late-summer heat and humidity. Texas and Louisiana followed closely at 90 and 91 degree days, respectively, still significant but notably below peak summer levels. California posted a modest 19 degree days, reflecting mild coastal conditions, while New York registered 34 degree days, with early heating demand beginning to offset fading cooling needs.
The weighted U.S. index averaged 49 degree days, down sharply from peak summer highs above 120, underscoring the broader shift from cooling toward heating. This implies softer power-sector natural gas demand for air conditioning, partially counterbalanced by rising heating consumption in the Northeast. Looking ahead to October 7–13, 2025, the trend suggests further weakening of cooling loads in the South and West, with heating demand expected to expand gradually across northern regions as autumn temperatures deepen.
Between September 17–23, 2025, population-weighted combined cooling and heating degree days (CDD+HDD) in the U.S. generally tracked below the climatological normal. Actual weighted values averaged between ~6 and 9 per day, compared with the normal baseline that held closer to ~8–9 during this window. The dip below the normal band reflected reduced temperature-driven demand overall, with cooling needs easing as summer heat retreated and heating loads not yet fully engaged.
By the latter part of the period, actual weighted CDD+HDD fell sharply near 6, touching the lower edge of the ±2σ range before partially rebounding. This highlights a temporary stretch of milder weather conditions across major demand centers. Looking forward, the weighted curve suggests continued fluctuation around the lower half of the normal band, consistent with seasonal transition. For the natural gas market, this indicates a temporary softening of demand pressure, as both air-conditioning and space-heating needs remain subdued, allowing storage injections to proceed steadily before winter heating demand ramps up.
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Extreme-Low for October Temperatures
Across Europe, the extreme minimum temperatures on October 1, 2025, highlighted a marked seasonal contrast. Northern and Eastern Europe, including Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Belarus, and parts of Ukraine, experienced widespread lows near or below 0 °C, signaling the early arrival of frost conditions in several areas. Particularly in central Sweden, Finland, and northern Russia, pockets dipped well below freezing, typical of the advancing Arctic influence.
In contrast, Western and Southern Europe remained significantly milder. The Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and the Balkans reported extreme minimums largely in the 10–15 °C range, with coastal Spain, Portugal, and Greece holding even warmer at 15–20 °C. Central Europe, including Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic, lay in an intermediate zone, with night-time lows generally between 0–5 °C, cooler than the south but far less severe than the north.
This distribution underscores a clear north–south temperature divide: autumn has firmly settled over northern and continental Europe, while the Mediterranean basin continues to retain late-summer warmth.
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Elevated Level of LNG Cargo Departures
U.S. natural gas production edged lower from the late-summer highs, averaging 108.4 Bcf/d during the latest reporting week, compared with peak levels above 109 Bcf/d in August. Output was essentially flat versus the prior week (–0.02 Bcf/d), but remains modestly below the highs of recent months, suggesting a slight cooling in supply momentum heading into autumn.
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, September 23, the natural gas rig count declined by one to 117 rigs. Regional shifts included two additions in Eagle Ford and one in Utica, offset by decreases in the Permian (–2), Haynesville (–1), and one among unidentified producing regions. Oil-directed rigs increased by six to 424, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 549 rigs, down 38 compared with last year.
Between September 25 and October 1, 32 LNG vessels with a combined capacity of 122 Bcf departed U.S. export terminals. Departures included nine from Sabine Pass, five each from Corpus Christi, Freeport, and Plaquemines, four from Cameron, three from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Elba Island. The elevated level of departures underscores strong international demand for U.S. LNG, particularly as Europe positions for the upcoming winter season.
European Gas Storage Levels: Well above Historically Weaker Benchmarks of 2021
As of late September 2025, European gas storage levels stand at roughly 78–79% full, according to the latest data. This places current inventories well above the weaker benchmarks of 2021 (around 66% at the same point) and 2022 (near 73%), but still below the record highs seen in 2020, 2023, and 2024, when stocks exceeded 90%. Compared with the past five years, 2025 falls into a solid mid-range: not as exceptionally strong as the peak years, but clearly more robust than the stressed refill seasons earlier in the decade.
Heading into the winter heating season, Europe maintains a comfortable buffer that should provide resilience against early cold spells or market disruptions. While the absence of record surpluses suggests less flexibility than in the two previous years, current storage is sufficiently high to cover seasonal demand without immediate concerns, supporting a stable near-term supply outlook.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
At the start of October 2025, European gas storage levels reveal a clear regional divide. Western and Southern Europe are well positioned, with France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium maintaining inventories above 90%, providing strong security ahead of the winter heating season. Central Europe, including Germany, Austria, and Poland, also reports healthy storage levels in the 80–90% range, keeping the core of the EU in a comfortable position.
In contrast, vulnerabilities appear in Northern and Eastern Europe. Sweden is only around 60% full, while Denmark and Belarus are closer to the 40–50% range, leaving them more exposed to potential early cold spells. The sharpest concern lies in Ukraine, where storage remains well below 40%, significantly weaker than the European average. This uneven distribution highlights that while the majority of the EU has built a robust buffer, certain regions remain more vulnerable to winter supply shocks and may depend heavily on cross-border flows.
Conclusion
Natural gas prices in both the U.S. and Europe fluctuated during the past week but finished on firmer ground. In the U.S., Henry Hub spot prices rose from $2.88 to $3.24/MMBtu, supported by strong LNG exports and the first signs of heating demand, while high storage levels and mild autumn weather kept gains limited. In Europe, Dutch TTF futures rose slightly to around €33.1/MWh (roughly $10.1/MMBtu), reflecting abundant inventories, though colder conditions in the north continued to lend support.
Looking ahead to the second week of October, Henry Hub prices are expected to remain range-bound in the $3.2–3.6/MMBtu corridor. Elevated storage and mild weather will cap the upside, but robust LNG export flows and gradual heating demand should prevent sharp declines. In Europe, TTF prices are likely to trade between €30.2-32.5/MWh ($9.2–9.9/MMBtu), with regional weather patterns driving short-term demand while strong storage buffers limit the risk of extreme spikes.