Natural gas futures continue to trade under the influence of a complex blend of seasonal fundamentals and structural supply dynamics. As of late October, weather remains a key driver: a persistent high-pressure ridge across the U.S. is sustaining above-normal warmth, yet forecasts for October 30–November 5 point to a pronounced west–east temperature gradient, reinforcing the transition from residual cooling to early heating demand. In Europe, autumnal air masses have settled over Northern and Eastern regions, with daytime averages between 3–8 °C across Scandinavia, the Baltics, Belarus, and Ukraine — supporting incremental drawdown expectations. On the supply side, U.S. storage levels sit 164 Bcf above the five-year norm, with notable injections in the Midwest and South Central hubs, while European inventories hover near 85% capacity. Meanwhile, U.S. LNG exports remain robust, signaling firm overseas demand as global buyers position ahead of winter. Domestic production continues near record highs, anchoring supply-side stability even as weather and export flows shape near-term price action.
Storage Levels, USA: Inventories 164 Bcf above 5-Year Average
According to the EIA, as of October 17, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,808 Bcf. This represents a net weekly injection of 87 Bcf compared with 3,721 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 34 Bcf higher than last year at this time and stand 164 Bcf above the five-year average, highlighting a storage position comfortably above seasonal benchmarks.
Picture 1 – Natural Gas in Underground Storage
Regionally, the Midwest (+29 Bcf) and South Central (+34 Bcf) recorded the largest weekly gains. The East (+16 Bcf), Mountain (+3 Bcf), and Pacific (+4 Bcf) regions also added modest volumes. Overall, these moves net to the 87 Bcf injection across the Lower 48, and as shown in the accompanying chart, inventories remain near the upper end of the five-year range.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Predominantly Unusually Warm
Throughout the past week, much of the United States remained unusually warm, driven by a persistent high-pressure system that dominated most of the Continent. The central and eastern regions, including the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Southeast, recorded daytime highs mainly in the upper 50s to low 70s°F (13–22°C), several degrees above typical mid-October values. The southern tier, from Texas to Florida, remained seasonally warm with widespread readings near 80°F (27°C), sustaining late-autumn heat across the Gulf Coast and southern Plains.
In contrast, cooler air persisted over the northern and northwestern states, where highs ranged mostly in the 40s to low 50s°F (8–12°C), consistent with or slightly below normal for the period. The interior West and Northern Rockies observed occasional temperature dips and brisk nights near freezing, though conditions stayed largely dry. Overall, the synoptic setup reinforced an early-season thermal divide between the warm South and cooler North. With widespread warmth dominating central and eastern population centers, space-heating demand remained moderate for mid-October.
Picture 2 - United States Current Temperatures (F)
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
During the period of October 30 – November 5, 2025, the United States is forecast to experience a pronounced west–east temperature contrast. The western half of the country, including the Rockies, Great Basin, and much of California, is expected to remain notably warmer than normal, with the highest probabilities of above-average temperatures centered over the Southwest and central Plains. The northern tier from the Pacific Northwest through the Upper Midwest also leans warm relative to seasonal norms, maintaining mild late-autumn conditions across the interior West.
Conversely, cooler-than-normal conditions are projected across the Southeast and portions of the Gulf Coast, extending northward into the southern Appalachians and lower Mid-Atlantic. Florida in particular shows the strongest likelihood of below-average readings, while the central corridor from the Ohio Valley to Texas trends near normal. Alaska is expected to remain near to slightly below seasonal averages, and Hawaii continues warmer than normal. Overall, the outlook signals a moderate national pattern with no major extremes, implying steady or slightly rising heating demand across the eastern U.S. as the season advances.
Picture 3 - Temperature outlook (F)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Â
During the week of October 17–23, 2025, total population-weighted degree days (CDD+HDD) across major U.S. demand centers remained approaching the recent seasonal norm, indicating a continued balance between residual cooling and emerging heating demand. Cooler air masses over the Northeast and northern Plains modestly boosted heating needs, while southern regions such as Texas and Florida still registered limited late-season cooling. Overall, the national index held near typical mid-October values, consistent with a gradual transition toward early heating influence.
Among key states, New York averaged 11.6 degree days, reflecting early-season heating in the Northeast. Florida and Texas each recorded about 8.6–8.7 degree days, sustaining moderate cooling demand under lingering warmth. Louisiana (4.3) and California (3.4) remained on the lower end of the range, consistent with mild Gulf and coastal conditions. Collectively, the distribution underscores the steady handoff between cooling and heating demand characteristic of the latter half of October.
Picture 4 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Top-Weighted States
Compared with climatological normals, national weighted CDD+HDD values hovered within the central portion of the expected range, showing no sustained deviation beyond the ±2σ band. Actual readings briefly approached the upper side of the normal envelope midweek before easing, reflecting transient cool–warm oscillations typical of this stage in the season. The overall profile aligns with a near-average temperature regime across major population centers, with limited regional anomalies.
Meanwhile, weather-related natural gas demand remained moderate through the week, supported by stable temperatures across most regions. Cooling influence continues to wane in the southern states, while early heating requirements expand gradually in the northern tier. This balanced environment favors steady system loads and sustained injection activity ahead of the November heating ramp-up.
Picture 5 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Normal CDD+HDD
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Sharp North–South Temperature Contrast
Across Europe, average temperatures on October 22, 2025, revealed a pronounced seasonal divide between the warm south and cooler northern and eastern regions. Northern and Eastern Europe, including Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Belarus, and Ukraine, reported daytime averages mainly between 3–8 °C, reflecting the steady advance of autumn air masses. Localized cool pockets persisted in Finland and northwestern Russia, where averages hovered near or slightly below 5 °C, consistent with early-season chill.
Meanwhile, Western and Southern Europe remained distinctly milder. The Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and much of the Balkans observed daytime averages ranging from 15 °C to above 20 °C, notably above normal for late October. Central Europe, encompassing Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic, occupied a transitional zone with typical averages around 10–12 °C.
This distribution highlights a sharp north–south temperature contrast across the continent: while the Mediterranean retains late-autumn warmth, northern and eastern Europe are entering a cooler regime. Consequently, heating demand is rising steadily in the north and east, while remaining moderate across western and southern markets.
Picture 6 – Europe Average Temperature (°C)
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtmlÂ
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Broadly Ample Supply amid Sustained Pace of Shipments
U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 107.7 Bcf/d for the week of October 16–22, down 0.8 Bcf/d (−0.7%) from 108.5 Bcf/d the prior week based on the provided daily series. Despite the week-over-week dip, output remains near recent highs, indicating broadly ample supply heading into late October. Weekly import/export details were not provided.
According to Baker Hughes for the week ending Tuesday, October 14, the natural gas rig count rose by 1 to 121. The Arkoma Woodford, Eagle Ford, and Permian each added one rig, offset by two drops in unidentified regions. The oil-directed rig count held at 418, with the Cana Woodford, DJ-Niobrara, Granite Wash, and Mississippian each adding one rig, the Eagle Ford down one, and three declines in unidentified regions. The total U.S. rig count is 548, 37 fewer than a year ago.
Between October 16 and October 22, 32 LNG vessels departed U.S. terminals with a combined capacity of 122 Bcf. Departures included eight from Sabine Pass; six from Plaquemines; five each from Corpus Christi and Freeport; four from Cameron; and two each from Cove Point and Calcasieu Pass. The sustained pace of shipments points to firm international demand as overseas markets position for the early winter period.
European Gas Storage Levels: Slightly below 2023 and 2024 Highs
According to the latest AGSI+ data, as of late October 2025, European underground gas storage levels average around 84–85% full. This places inventories slightly below the record levels observed in 2023 and 2024 but well above the averages of 2021 and earlier years, when stocks were significantly lower heading into the winter. The 2025 refill season followed a steady trajectory through summer and early autumn, maintaining a consistent pace without major disruptions or early plateauing. Overall, Europe enters the heating season with a solid storage buffer, providing a favorable foundation for supply security even amid early cold patterns.
Picture 7 - Storage Filling Levels (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
Regionally, the map shows strong storage positions across most of Western and Southern Europe, with France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium maintaining inventories above 90%. Germany, Austria, and Poland remain in the healthy 80–90% range, supporting system resilience in the EU’s central corridor. In contrast, Sweden, Denmark, and Belarus report lower levels near 40–60%, while Ukraine stands out as the main outlier, with storage below 40%. This uneven distribution underscores a continued east–west divide in gas preparedness, indicating that while most EU members are well positioned for winter, eastern neighbors may rely more on cross-border flows to ensure supply balance.
Picture 8 - Filling levels country map (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/mapÂ
Conclusion
Over the latest report week, U.S. and European gas prices firmed alongside supportive fundamentals. Henry Hub spot rose $0.65 from $2.80 to $3.45/MMBtu, aided by a strong LNG export pace (32 cargoes; 122 Bcf) and only a small dip in dry gas output (to ~107.7 Bcf/d), while storage remains comfortable at 3,808 Bcf (above last year and the five-year average). In Europe, Dutch TTF front-month traded near €32–33/MWh (≈€9.4–9.7/MMBtu or about $10.9/MMBtu on a weekly basis), with inventories broadly high (EU ~84–85% full) and seasonal weather gradients emerging across the continent. Together, elevated inventories, mild-to-seasonal temperatures, and steady LNG flows kept market conditions balanced, with regional price gains reflecting early-heating demand and logistical constraints in specific hubs.
For the coming week, we expect Henry Hub to trade in the $3.10–$3.60/MMBtu range, with weather-driven CDD+HDD remaining near normal and storage cushioning any pullbacks, while continued LNG loadings offer upside support. TTF is likely to hold in the €31–35/MWh band (≈$10.2–11.6/MMBtu, using 1 MMBtu ≈ 0.293 MWh and current FX assumptions), shaped by high European inventories, intra-regional temperature contrasts, and steady Atlantic LNG arrivals. Net-net, bearish forces (high storage, generally mild conditions) are expected to be bolstered by bullish support factors (exports and the gradual expansion of heating demand), pointing to a broadly stable near-term price environment.