Global natural gas futures are currently charting a course through a confluence of moderating fundamentals, keeping a lid on any significant upside breakout. The persistently mild autumn weather across key consumption zones in both the U.S. and Europe is the primary bearish factor, suppressing weather-related demand as the transition from air-conditioning to heating loads remains gradual. This muted consumption is magnified by robust inventory positions; while European underground gas storage is not quite at last year's record highs, it sits at a comfortable levels, providing a substantial buffer against winter supply shocks. Simultaneously, steady U.S. domestic production and robust, consistent LNG export capacity provide a powerful counterweight to any upward price momentum, resulting in a generally sideways consolidation pattern for the commodity's price action as traders watch for the first significant cold-air mass to emerge on the weather forecasts.
Storage Levels and Production, USA: Higher Than Last Year This Time
As of October 10, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,721 Bcf, according to the EIA. This represents a net weekly injection of 80 Bcf compared with 3,641 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 26 Bcf higher than last year at this time and stand 154 Bcf above the five-year average, highlighting a storage position comfortably above seasonal benchmarks.
Picture 1 - Natural Gas in Underground Storage
Regionally, the Midwest (+30 Bcf) and South Central (+20 Bcf) posted the largest weekly increases, with the East (+23 Bcf), Mountain (+4 Bcf), and Pacific (+3 Bcf) also higher. Overall, these moves net to the 80 Bcf injection across the Lower 48, and as shown in the accompanying chart, inventories remain above the five-year average for this time of year.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dry natural gas production remained stable near record levels, averaging around 108.4 Bcf/d during the latest reporting week, according to EIA estimates. Output was broadly unchanged from the previous week and continues to hold just below the summer peak near 109 Bcf/d. The production trend indicates a steady plateau, reflecting strong upstream performance and adequate supply across the Lower 48. On a year-over-year basis, dry gas output remains modestly higher, underscoring sustained efficiency in U.S. shale operations.
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, October 7, the natural gas rig count increased by two to 120 rigs. The oil-directed rig count declined by four to 418, bringing the total U.S. rig count to 547, which is 35 fewer than at this time last year. Gas-directed drilling activity remains broadly steady, indicating a balanced supply outlook under current market conditions.
Between October 9 and October 15, a total of 32 LNG vessels departed U.S. export terminals with a combined capacity of 122 Bcf, according to Bloomberg Finance, L.P. Departures included eight from Sabine Pass, six from Plaquemines, five each from Corpus Christi and Freeport, four from Cameron, three from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Elba Island. The continued high level of LNG export activity highlights strong international demand, particularly from Europe and Asia, as global markets finalize storage builds ahead of the winter season.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Split Autumn Patterns
Over the past week, the United States experienced a mixed weather pattern as alternating high- and low-pressure systems shaped contrasting conditions across the country. The South and West, including Texas, California, and parts of the Southeast, remained notably warm for mid-October, with daytime highs reaching the mid-80s°F (around 28–29°C), extending late-season heat across much of the region. In contrast, cooler air from Canada brought a distinct autumnal feel to the northern and central states, where afternoon temperatures generally ranged from the upper 50s to mid-60s°F (14–20°C) and nighttime lows occasionally fell near freezing in the northern Plains and Great Lakes.
Across the West Coast, conditions were mostly dry and stable, while the central Plains and Upper Midwest saw scattered precipitation tied to passing cold fronts. The Northeast trended seasonably mild following brief early-week cooling, whereas the interior Mountain West and northern Rockies registered below-normal readings consistent with an advancing cold trough. Overall, the synoptic setup highlighted a continued seasonal transition: cooling demand has faded sharply in the South, while heating requirements are gradually emerging across northern population centers, keeping aggregate natural gas consumption relatively balanced.
Picture 2 - United States Current Temperatures (F)
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
During the period of October 23–29, 2025, the United States is forecast to experience widespread above-normal temperatures across nearly the entire Lower 48. The warm anomaly is expected to be strongest across the central and southern states, particularly in the Plains, Midwest, and lower Mississippi Valley, where daytime highs will trend well above seasonal norms for late October. The Rocky Mountain region and much of the West are also projected to remain warmer than normal, reinforcing the persistence of mild autumn conditions. Meanwhile, the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast may hold closer to seasonal averages, while no significant cold surges are anticipated nationwide.
Alaska shows a split pattern, with below-normal readings over the Aleutians but milder-than-average conditions across much of the mainland, consistent with ongoing Pacific warmth. Hawaii is expected to remain above normal as well. Overall, the outlook points to a stable and unseasonably mild regime across the continental U.S., suggesting limited heating demand growth and continued muted natural gas consumption as the country moves through the second half of October.
Picture 3 - Temperature outlook (F)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
During the week of October 10–16, 2025, total population-weighted degree days (CDD+HDD) across major U.S. demand centers averaged 9.8, marking a level slightly below the recent seasonal norm of around 10–11. The national index was broadly stable week over week, reflecting a balanced transition period in which neither cooling nor heating demand dominated. Cooler conditions across the Midwest and Northeast modestly increased heating requirements, while lingering warmth in southern states maintained residual cooling needs, keeping total temperature-driven demand moderate.
Among key states, New York registered the highest average at 12.6 degree days, indicating early-season heating influence in the Northeast. Texas (9.7) and Florida (8.9) followed closely, sustaining moderate cooling demand under late-autumn warmth. California (8.1) and Louisiana (5.7) posted comparatively lower values, consistent with milder coastal and Gulf conditions. Overall, the distribution underscores the ongoing shift from residual summer cooling toward incremental heating load across the northern tier.
Picture 4 - Weighted CDD+HDD vs Top-Weighted States
As compared with climatological normals, national weighted CDD+HDD values tracked near the lower half of the expected range, with actual readings briefly dipping below the long-term mean but remaining well within the ±2σ band. The subdued variability indicates generally mild weather across most population centers, with limited deviations from average temperature-driven demand. This stability aligns with mid-October climatology, where alternating cool fronts and warm spells tend to offset one another.
Overall, weather-related natural gas demand remained moderate, reflecting a continued balance between waning air-conditioning use and the gradual emergence of heating loads. This equilibrium allowed storage injections to proceed at a steady pace, maintaining a comfortable supply position ahead of the core winter season.
Picture 5 - Weighted CDD+HDD vs Normal CDD+HDD
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Clear Seasonal Cooler Progression
Across Europe, average temperatures for the week of October 5–11, 2025 reflected a clear seasonal progression toward cooler conditions across much of the continent. Northern and Eastern Europe, including Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine, experienced cool to chilly daytime averages near 5–10 °C, consistent with the spread of early autumn air masses. Parts of Finland and northern Russia saw temperatures closer to 0 °C, indicating localized early-season cold spells.
In contrast, Western and Southern Europe maintained milder to warm averages, with daytime readings frequently in the 15–22 °C range across Spain, Portugal, southern France, Italy, and the Balkans. The western Atlantic fringe from Ireland to western France also remained temperate, with limited night-time cooling and little deviation from seasonal norms.
This north–south temperature gradient underscores Europe’s ongoing autumn transition: cooling continues to dominate northern and eastern regions, while the Mediterranean basin retains residual warmth. As a result, heating demand is rising gradually in the north and east, while southern and western markets remain seasonally moderate.
Picture 6 - Europe Extreme Minimum Temperature (C)
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
European gas storage levels: Solid but Not Exceptional Reserves
As of mid-October 2025, European underground gas storage levels average about 83% full, based on the latest AGSI+ data. This marks a moderate increase from early October and places inventories below the record highs of 2023 and 2024—both of which exceeded 90%—but comfortably above the weaker refill outcomes of 2021 and 2022. The current trajectory indicates that the 2025 refill season has reached an early plateau, with injection rates slowing as the continent transitions toward heating demand. Overall, Europe enters the core of the heating season with solid but not exceptional reserves, sufficient to ensure short-term system stability and moderate price pressure through the onset of winter.
Picture 7 - Storage Filling Levels (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
At the regional level, storage data reveal a clear west-east divide. Western and Southern European countries such as France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium remain well stocked above 90%, providing a strong operational cushion. Central Europe—including Germany, Austria, and Poland — holds healthy inventories in the 80–90% range, ensuring robust supply within the EU core. In contrast, Sweden and Denmark maintain lower levels near 60%, while Ukraine remains substantially underfilled at below 40%, marking a key vulnerability on the eastern frontier. This uneven distribution underscores that while the majority of the EU maintains secure reserves, several northern and eastern markets could face heightened winter dependency on cross-border gas flows.
Picture 8 - Filling levels country map (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
Natural gas prices in both the United States and Europe moved lower over the past week, reflecting a combination of mild mid-October weather and ample storage levels. In the U.S., Henry Hub front-month futures declined from around $3.33 to $2.93/MMBtu (-12%), marking a three-week low as storage injections remained strong and heating demand stayed subdued. Abundant supply and steady production above 108 Bcf/d continue to limit upside potential in the near term, despite robust LNG exports and early seasonal transitions.
In Europe, Dutch TTF front-month prices eased slightly to €32.3/MWh (≈$9.8/MMBtu), maintaining a narrow trading range. High regional inventories—averaging over 83% full—and moderate temperatures have restrained price volatility, although localized cold spells in Northern Europe have provided brief support. Overall, both regional markets remain well balanced, with comfortable storage and subdued weather-driven demand keeping price pressures moderate heading into late October.