The price equilibrium for natural gas futures currently reflects a tight tug-of-war between strong supply-side fundamentals and the persistent threat of heightened weather-driven demand. While U.S. dry natural gas production remains stable near record levels and is complemented by a sustained, strong pace of LNG exports, this bullish catalyst is currently muted by historically high storage levels across both sides of the Atlantic. Specifically, much of Europe's central and western corridors maintain inventories well above the 90% threshold, providing a significant bearish buffer. However, market participants are closely monitoring elevated CDD+HDD (cooling and heating degree day) forecasts, signaling the potential for stronger near-term consumption that could eventually put pressure on the current supply overhang, driving a potentially volatile shift in the supply/demand balance.
Storage Levels and Production, USA: Injection Declined More Profoundly
According to the EIA, as of October 31, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,915 Bcf, . This represented a net weekly injection of 33 Bcf compared with 3,882 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 6 Bcf lower than last year at this time and stand 162 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating that storage remains modestly above seasonal benchmarks.
Picture 1 - Natural Gas in Underground Storage
Regionally, the Midwest (+20 Bcf) and South Central (+14 Bcf) registered the largest weekly gains. The Mountain (+2 Bcf) and Pacific (+2 Bcf) regions added smaller volumes, while the East region declined by 4 Bcf. Within the South Central, salt facilities increased by 5 Bcf and nonsalt stocks rose by 8 Bcf. Overall, these movements net to the 33 Bcf injection across the Lower 48, and as shown in the accompanying chart, inventories remain near the upper end of the five-year range.
Overall, these movements net to the 33 Bcf injection across the Lower 48; regional changes may not sum due to independent rounding.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Above-Normal Temperatures Prevail
Over the past week, much of the United States experienced relatively calm and dry conditions under the influence of a dominant high-pressure system. Warmer-than-normal temperatures prevailed across the southern half of the country, with highs reaching the 70s to near 80°F (21–27°C) across the Gulf Coast, southern Plains, and Southeast. In contrast, colder air masses spread across the northern tier, with morning lows frequently dipping into the 20s and 30s°F (–6 to 2°C) across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast. The Mid-Atlantic and Appalachian regions saw a sharp thermal contrast, transitioning from mild days to the first widespread frosts of the season.
These conditions boosted heating degree days (HDDs) across the Northeast and northern Plains, marking the beginning of sustained heating demand in major population centers. The West Coast remained near to slightly above seasonal norms, while portions of the Rockies and northern Plains recorded overnight freezes that marked a definitive end to the growing season. This north–south temperature divide underscored the deepening transition toward winter across the northern states. Overall, continued warmth in the southern regions limited heating requirements there, but advancing cold air in the North modestly increased early-season heating demand.
Picture 2 - United States Current Temperatures (F)
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
During the period of November 14–20, 2025, the United States is forecast to experience predominantly above-normal temperatures across much of the Lower 48, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. The strongest warm anomalies are centered over the southern and central Plains, extending into the Southwest and Mississippi Valley, where daytime temperatures are expected to remain well above seasonal averages. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also lean warmer than normal, maintaining the mild pattern observed in early November.
However, a secondary cold front may briefly affect the northern Plains and portions of the Upper Midwest, bringing localized temperature drops and near-freezing conditions in some areas. The Pacific Northwest and coastal California remain the only regions consistently trending below or near normal. Overall, the national outlook favors a warm-dominated pattern with intermittent cool spells in the northern tier, suggesting that while heating demand will fluctuate, it should remain moderate through mid-November.
Picture 3 - Temperature outlook (F)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Although NOAA’s medium-range outlook (for mid-November) continues to project above-normal temperatures across most of the Lower 48, recent short-term model updates and observed degree-day data show a sharp increase in combined CDD and HDD values for early November. This divergence between near-term temperature dynamics and the broader mild forecast has temporarily boosted market sentiment and lifted natural gas futures, as traders price in stronger weather-driven demand for the first half of November.
During the week of October 30–November 5, 2025, total population-weighted degree days (CDD+HDD) across major U.S. demand centers rose steadily, reflecting the seasonal shift toward higher heating influence. The national composite averaged around 18–20 degree days per day, up from roughly 15 the previous week, highlighting a clear acceleration in early-season heating demand. This marks the clearest transition so far from residual late-season cooling toward predominantly heating-driven consumption across key regions.
Among top-weighted states, New York led on a population-weighted basis, reflecting stronger heating needs in the Northeast. Texas and Louisiana showed lower daily readings, consistent with early-season heating and occasional mild afternoons, while Florida remained at the low end amid persistent warmth across the Southeast. California continued to record stable, near-average conditions, indicating the gradual end of the cooling season and the onset of early heating demand in coastal and inland regions.
Picture 4 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Top-Weighted States
Relative to climatological normal, weighted national CDD+HDD values climbed near the upper edge of the typical ±2σ range during the latest week. The second chart shows actual values trending above normal from late October onward, indicating stronger temperature-driven energy demand than the historical mean for this period. This elevated signal reflects widespread cooling across northern demand centers and transitional heating elsewhere, suggesting an earlier-than-average seasonal ramp-up.
For the natural gas market, these conditions point to a firming of weather-related demand as heating loads expand nationwide. The broad-based rise in degree days supports increased residential and commercial consumption, signaling the likely end of the autumn injection phase and the start of the winter draw period.
Picture 5 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Normal CDD+HDD
Europe’s Weather Conditions: North–to–South Gradient Typical of Late Autumn
Across Europe, average temperatures for the week of October 26–November 1, 2025, reflected a clear north–south gradient typical of late autumn. Northern and Eastern Europe, including Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Belarus, and parts of Ukraine, recorded cool daytime averages near or below 5 °C, consistent with early-season cold air intrusions from the Arctic. Portions of Norway, Sweden, and Finland remained particularly cold, reinforcing the onset of winter conditions across the northern tier.
Western and Southern Europe experienced considerably milder weather. Average temperatures ranged from 12 °C to 18 °C across France, Spain, Italy, and much of the Balkans, with localized warmth persisting along the Mediterranean coast. Central Europe, encompassing Germany, Poland, and Austria, lay within a transitional band where daytime averages hovered around 8–10 °C, cooler than the south but above the northern chill.
This distribution underscores a strong north–south contrast in temperature patterns: while cooler air masses have settled across northern and eastern Europe, the Mediterranean basin continues to retain mild late-autumn warmth. Heating demand remains elevated in northern and eastern markets, while remaining moderate in western and southern regions.
Picture 6 – Europe Average Temperature (°C)
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Up Slightly from Previous Week
U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 110.1 Bcf/d for the week ending November 6, 2025, up slightly from the previous week and remaining near record levels based on the latest daily data series. Output continues to signal abundant supply conditions heading into mid-November, providing strong support for storage and export activity.
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, October 28, the natural gas rig count increased by 4 to 125, while oil-directed rigs fell by 6 to 414, bringing the total rig count to 546, 39 fewer than a year ago. The Barnett and Permian basins each added one rig, while the DJ-Niobrara and Haynesville declined by one.
Between October 30 and November 5, 34 LNG vessels departed U.S. export terminals with a combined carrying capacity of 128 Bcf. Departures included nine from Sabine Pass, six from Plaquemines, five from Corpus Christi, four from Cameron, and three each from Freeport and Calcasieu Pass, along with two each from Cove Point and Elba Island. The steady pace of shipments reflects continued firm international demand as global markets prepare for the winter heating season.
European Gas Storage Levels: In Line with 2024 Marks
As of early November 2025, European underground gas storage levels remained high at approximately 90% full, based on the latest AGSI+ data. This positions inventories just below the record peaks observed in 2023 but largely in line with 2024 levels and well above the historical averages recorded before 2022. The 2025 refill season showed a smooth and sustained trajectory from late spring through October, with no major slowdowns or disruptions. Although the fill rate plateaued slightly earlier than last year, storage volumes remain robust heading into winter, ensuring that the continent enters the heating season with a strong buffer against cold weather or market volatility.
Picture 7 - Storage Filling Levels (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
At the regional level, France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium maintained inventories exceeding 90%, providing a solid foundation for winter readiness across Western and Southern Europe. Germany, Austria, and Poland hold between 80–90%, reinforcing the EU’s central corridor. In contrast, Sweden and Denmark show more moderate levels near 60–70%, while Belarus and particularly, Ukraine remain low, with the latter estimated below 40%. This uneven pattern underscores a persistent west–east divide in storage capacity and preparedness, indicating that while most EU members are well equipped for winter, Eastern Europe may rely more heavily on cross-border balancing and imports to meet heating demand.
Picture 8 - Filling levels country map (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
Over the past week, U.S. and European natural gas benchmarks moved in opposite directions amid steady supply and shifting seasonal demand. The Henry Hub spot price rose by $0.15 week over week to $3.51/MMBtu, supported by firm LNG exports and moderate heating demand under cooler northern conditions. Domestic production remained near record levels around 110 Bcf/d, offsetting seasonal consumption gains and keeping market balances stable. In Europe, the Dutch TTF front-month eased slightly to around €31.6/MWh (≈$10.3/MMBtu), reflecting high storage levels near 90% and mild early-November temperatures across much of the continent.
Looking ahead, Henry Hub is expected to trade in the $4.30–$4.70/MMBtu range, while TTF is likely to remain between €30–33/MWh (≈$10.0–10.9/MMBtu), shaped by robust inventories and steady LNG inflows. Market direction will depend on early-season heating intensity and continued export strength from the U.S. Gulf Coast. Overall, high storage and a medium-range mild outlook remain broadly bearish influences, while LNG exports and emerging cold fronts offer offsetting support, resulting in a balanced near-term outlook for gas prices in both markets.