ClimateBrink: "Off-grid data centers have 60-80% higher emissions," by Zeke Hausfather.
Hausfather just listened to "a fascinating Catalyst episode with Olya Irzak of Frost Methane, which featured the eye-opening estimate that 50 GW of new behind-the-meter [BTM] gas could result in 380 million tonnes [Mt] of CO2-equivalent over 18 months once methane leaks are taken into account." In their rush to power, data centers are building the least efficient fossil gas generation, often with high equipment gas leakage, many of which are located in gas production regions that are in turn characterized by high leakage rates.
Hausfather proposes "a reasonable achievable near-term solution: if we are going to build data centers, we should ensure that they are connected to the grid rather than building dirty off grid gas generators." Fossil methane is causing about 1/3 of current global warming, as well as ground-level pollution with ozone, + is faster to eliminate.
"According to Cleanview’s tracker, simple-cycle turbines are planned for around 46% of off-grid data centers, reciprocating engines ~34%, fuel cells ~14%, unattributed generation ~ 6%, and on-site combined cycle plants effectively 0% today." These grid numbers are 2023 averages from EPA’s eGRID for ERCOT, PJM + the US as a whole...include the grid’s own upstream gas leaks, coal-mine methane + 3% transmission losses, all of which push the grid number up.
"Methane leakage (including engine slop) adds between 70 + 190 kg per MWh." But even without methane leakage the gap would be large; on CO2 alone, engines + turbines are 31% to 63% above the grid, because they are quite inefficient at turning gas into electricity.
"There are more efficient options that are closer to grid [level] emissions, but these are...more rarely installed today given longer build times or lower equipment availability." The broader context is that "US electricity grids are decarbonizing over time with the rapid deployment of clean energy." Also critically needed are long-distance transmission, required grid interconnection, + other regulation.
The wholly unregulated AI center buildout is harmful to Americans for so many reasons, but adding all the leaked fossil methane with onsite generators is any additional slap in the face. Clearly state + federal regulation is the only solution. Cue the upcoming elections.
