The world’s commercial oil inventories have "several weeks" of supply left, the IEA cautioned. (Reuters)
The IEA has dramatically reversed its prior outlook—it’s now projecting a supply deficit as the war knocks an estimated 3.9M barrels per day off global production. Across March and April, global observed oil inventories fell by a record 246M barrels.
While the agency’s coordinated release has injected 2.5M barrels/day into the physical market from strategic reserves, agency head Fatih Birol cautioned that these emergency backstops "are not endless."
The agency notes a sharp "perception gap" between physical supply shocks and financial market pricing. Now, the onset of spring planting and summer travel will accelerate inventory drains via surging demand for diesel, fertilizer, gasoline, and jet fuel.