Natural gas prices remain broadly stable, with summer 2025 contracts slightly above median pre-expiry levels and within normal volatility ranges. However, winter 2026–27 contracts continue to trade above the upper quartile, reflecting longer-term supply and weather risks. While the 3-year segment of the forward curve is flattening, distortions persist in both near- and long-term tenors compared to 2020–2024. On the fundamentals side, storage injections are projected at +36 BCF for early July, keeping inventory levels above the five-year median. Weather patterns are stabilizing nationally, though regional heat spikes are expected in key demand centers.
Current Prices Compared to the 10-Day Pre-Expiry Price Range by Month Since 2010
Key Insights: Price dynamics have not changed significantly compared to last week. Summer 2025 contracts are trading slightly above their median values for the expiry date, but still remain within the interquartile range. Winter contracts for 2026 and 2027 continue to trade above the upper quartile. A gradual price stabilization is expected.
Forward Curve Compared to 2020–2024
Key Insights: Although 2025 contracts with delivery in three years have approached the levels of equivalent 2023 and 2024 contracts, the forward curve remains notably skewed in the near-term (1–2 years) and long-term (5–6 years) segments.
Current Storage Levels and Forecast for Next Week Compared to 2019–2024
Key Insights: For Week 28 (July 4–10), an injection of 36 BCF is expected. Storage levels are above the 5-year median. Injection rates have slightly slowed following last week’s increase. If the current supply-demand balance persists, 2024’s peak storage levels may be reached. Weather and seasonal effects in the second half of summer remain limiting factors.
Weekly Sum of HDD + CDD Based on Current NOAA Data and Two-Week Forecast Compared to 1994–2024
Key Insights: In the current Week 29, weather has stabilized around the 30-year median. The upcoming Week 30 is forecast to be hotter than the median, but HDD+CDD values are still within the interquartile range.
Chart Note: Box plots show 30-year quantiles from 1994 to 2024. Red dots represent 2024, green for 2025, and blue for 2025 forecasts.
Weekly Sum of HDD + CDD by Region Based on Current NOAA Data and Two-Week Forecast Compared to 1994–2024
Key Insights: At the regional level, Week 30 shows a significant increase in HDD+CDD above the upper quartile in the EN Central, ES Central, South Atlantic, WN Central, and WS Central regions.
Weekly Net Demand/Supply Difference Compared to 2014–2024
Key Insights: In the current Week 29, the factors affecting the demand-supply difference have returned to the median levels.