Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiration by month since 2010
Conclusion: The expiration of the NGX25 contract settled above the historical median based on data since 2010. December and winter 2026 natural gas futures continue to trade with upward momentum, holding above the upper bound of the interquartile range.
Current forward curve vs. 2020-2025
Conclusion: The 2025 forward curve continues to exhibit a steady flattening trend, increasingly aligning with the configurations observed in 2023 and 2024 for comparable delivery dates. This convergence is particularly pronounced in longer-dated contracts — those with maturities of three years or more — where pricing is consistently reverting toward historical levels.
Current inventory and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
Conclusion: According to the Week 43 forecast (October 20–26), U.S. underground natural gas storage is expected to increase by approximately +80 BCF, slightly above the five-year seasonal average of +78 BCF.
Trailing weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024
Conclusion: The current 15-day cumulative HDD+CDD readings fall within the historical mid-range for the 1994–2024 period. The near-term forecast suggests a temporary deviation 15–20 points above the seasonal average, followed by a reversion trend toward — and potentially below — the mean over the subsequent two weeks.
Trailing weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024
Conclusion: The current 15-day cumulative HDD+CDD readings have entered the climatological mean range for the 1994–2024 baseline. Forecast models for the next two weeks project a deviation of 15–20 points above the seasonal norm, which may act as a meaningful bullish driver for the front-month natural gas contract.
Weekly cumulative supply/demand differentials compared to 2014-2024
Conclusion: During this week, the 2025 supply-demand differential has moved above the 2014–2024 historical average, indicating demand growth acceleration to be outpacing supply. This shift reflects tightening market fundamentals and may signal increased upward pressure on front-month pricing if sustained.
Number of Days for Deliveries from Storages
Conclusion: The above chart illustrates the number of supply days covered exclusively by underground storage, based on current consumption rates. As of late October 2025, inventories are sufficient for approximately 34 days — below the lower bound of the historical interquartile range. At this moderately reduced storage level, even minor production disruptions or demand spikes could trigger sharp price responses, particularly during late winter and early spring.
Weather Anomalies (HDD+CDD) and Fundamental Factors
Conclusion: Overall, core fundamentals and weather-driven variables remain within seasonal norms. The exception is a continued uptick in residential and commercial demand, driven by the onset of the heating season. However, no significant cold anomalies have been observed during the early phase of this transition.