Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiration by month since 2010
Conclusion: Due to mild weather conditions and elevated production levels, the NGX25 futures contract is trading below its 10-day pre-expiry average, exhibiting elevated volatility during this timeframe. Meanwhile, winter 2026 contracts remain priced above the upper bound of their interquartile range, signaling persistent bullish sentiment in the forward curve.
Current forward curve vs. 2020-2024
Conclusion: The forward curve shape in 2025 shows a consistent flattening trend, increasingly converging toward the configurations observed in 2023 and 2024 for comparable delivery dates. This pattern is particularly pronounced in longer-dated contracts — those with maturities of three years or more — where prices are steadily aligning with historical benchmarks.
Current inventory and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
Conclusion: According to the Week 41 forecast (October 6–12), underground gas storage levels are projected to increase by +87 BCF, reaching 3,728 BCF — surpassing the inventory level recorded during the same period last year. The build is supported by robust production volumes and unseasonably mild weather conditions, both of which continue to weigh on near-term pricing and curve structure.
Trailing weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024
Conclusion: Cumulative HDD+CDD values over the past 14 days remain below the historical averages for all regions (1994–2024 baseline). Even factoring in the two-week forward forecast, no significant deviation from the prevailing mild weather trend is expected — a dynamic that continues to suppress weather-driven risk premiums across the curve.
Trailing weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024
Conclusion: Cumulative HDD+CDD values over the past 14 days remain below the 1994–2024 historical averages across all regions — except WS CENTRAL and PACIFIC. The two-week forward forecast suggests continued alignment with the prevailing mild weather trend, limiting upside risk for weather-sensitive contracts and reinforcing bearish sentiment along the front end of the curve.
Weekly cumulative supply/demand differentials compared to 2014-2024
Conclusion: This week, the 2025 supply-demand differential is trending below the 2014–2024 historical average, indicating either subdued demand or excess supply. This imbalance continues to exert downward pressure on front-month pricing and reinforces bearish sentiment across the near-term curve.
Number of Days for Deliveries from Storages
Conclusion: The chart illustrates the number of supply days covered exclusively by storage, based on current consumption rates. As of early October 2025, inventories equate to approximately 35 days of supply — falling below the lower bound of the interquartile range. At this relatively modest inventory level, even minor disruptions in production or unexpected demand spikes could trigger sharp price reactions, particularly during late winter and early spring when market sensitivity peaks.
Weather Anomalies (HDD+CDD) and Fundamental Factors
Conclusion: Overall, fundamental drivers and weather anomalies remain within expected boundaries, with no systemic deviations observed. Barring a sudden sharp spike in supply-demand ratio — e.g., driven by weather, production, or export disruptions — we do not anticipate significant price dislocations heading into the current expiration timeframe.