Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiration by month since 2010
Conclusions: Contract Q expired at the median for the last 15 years. Contract U traded close to the median. The prices of the following contracts have not changed significantly. The fall 2025 contracts are trading slightly above the median values on the expiration date while remaining within the interquartile range. The 2026 and 2027 winter contracts continue to be above the upper quartile.
Current forward curve vs. 2020-2024
Conclusions: Although the prices of 2025’s 3-year contracts have approached the levels similar to 2023 and 2024 contracts, a pronounced forward curve skew remains in the near-term (1-2 years) and distant (5-6 years) delivery segments.
Current inventory and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024
Conclusions: For week 30 (July 21-27 ), we expect a 39 BCF increase in storage. The filling level has been confidently holding above the median for the previous 5 years. Injection rates keep positive dynamics. If the current supply and demand situation persists, the peak level of 2024 is possible. The weather and seasonal phenomena of the second half of summer and early fall remain a restraining factor.
Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024
Conclusions: In the current 31st week, despite expectations for HDD+CDD growth, the weather has stabilized and reached the 30-year median. Next week (32) is forecasted to be at the median. The seasonal weather peak is almost passed, and HDD+CDD values are expected to decline further.
Explanation of the chart: candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots 2024, green 2025, blue prediction 2025
Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region
Conclusions: Looking by region, we see moderate levels of HDD+CDD at weeks 31-32 in almost all regions except WS CENTRAL and MOUNTAIN
Weekly cumulative supply/demand differentials compared to 2014-2024
Conclusions: In the current 31st week, the supply-demand differential has risen sharply above the median. With a slight decrease in LNG exports, consumption for power generation and industrial production increased strongly.