Tensions with Iran leading up to the current war conflict with the U.S. and Israel have spanned history as far back as 1953. One of the outcomes of the U.S. and Iran's ongoing war has been the blockades at the Strait of Hormuz, causing a price hike for jet fuel. “In the current U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, prices have jumped on concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz and broader Gulf supply disruption, with oil rising into the $90 to $120 range and jet fuel up roughly 58% to 80%,” states Patrick Arnzen, CEO at Thrust Flight. This is due to the key oil refining hubs' inability to maintain a supply of crude. Kerosene, or jet fuel, is only a 10-15% yield of the refined crude to begin with. A stranglehold on the supply of unrefined crude severely affects the availability of kerosene from the refineries. Traditional jet fuel, or kerosene, alternatives for airplanes do not exist.
According to Kevin Singh, President and founder of Icarus Jet, “According to EIA data, jet fuel production averaged 1.815 million barrels per day over the first 11 months of 2025. That's the baseline going into this crisis. The EIA projected 2026 demand at 1.74 million b/d.” This is U.S. data, but the jet fuel crisis is international. Shipping lines in the Strait of Hormuz service a global network of consumers. Some countries are harder hit than others, and while airplane services in one country might not affect departures, the ability to refuel at the flight destination country could be restricted, limiting flight patterns.
Some of what this means to airline customers includes forty-five minutes to two hours extra airtime for re-routed routes, causing shorter travel, but more connections and journey legs; less luggage storage allowed for lighter load carry policies; and higher ticket prices as jet fuel costs consume 20% to 30% of an airline's total costs.Â
On the side of the airlines, procedures for fuel-efficient altitudes and speeds, and single-engine taxing and continuous descent are expected, along with the replacement of older aircraft with newer “fuel-use friendly” airplane models. Airline passenger congestion is expected to continue to increase as minor, fuel-consuming air routes are closed, and major corridor air traffic becomes the only available option. These changes may or may not spell out permanent decisions and conditions in the airline industry as they respond to the Strait of Hormuz emergency to prevent future chaos.
Airline reviewed and revised growth plans are a natural outcome of jet fuel production curtailment, as are airport personnel layoffs. Most experts have agreed that the economic backlash from the jet fuel crisis emergency status can be resolved within weeks or a few months once the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal shipping operations. More lasting outcomes from the immediate responses will include minor airport facility shutdowns, air fleet upgrades, and air flight route changes. Flight travel is changing both domestically and internationally. Under pressure, the aviation passenger industry will survive the jet fuel price crisis. The question remaining is: “How much will air travel change?”Â
Â
Â