Natural gas prices are largely aligned with historical norms, with the Q contract nearing its 15-year median as expiration approaches and summer-autumn 2025 contracts trading slightly above median levels but within the interquartile range. In contrast, winter 2026–27 contracts remain firmly above the upper quartile, pointing to persistent long-term risk pricing. Despite some normalization in 3-year forward pricing, the curve continues to show significant distortions at both short- and long-term horizons. On the fundamentals side, storage is projected to grow by +33 BCF in mid-July, with levels tracking well above the 5-year median. Weather-driven demand has begun to ease nationally, though regional deviations remain (especially in the Central and Mountain areas), highlighting the importance of localized heat trends in shaping market sentiment.
Current Prices Compared to the 10-Day Pre-Expiration Range by Month Since 2010
Key insights: The expiration of the Q contract is approaching. Its price is now very close to the 15-year median on the expiration date. We expect high volatility in the near-term and upcoming U contracts. Prices for subsequent contracts have remained relatively unchanged. Autumn 2025 contracts are trading slightly above their historical median expiration values but remain within the interquartile range. Winter contracts for 2026 and 2027 continue to trade above the upper quartile.
Forward Curve Compared to 2020–2024
Key insights: Although 2025 contracts with three-year forward delivery have approached the price levels seen in comparable 2023 and 2024 contracts, the forward curve still shows a significant distortion in both the short-term (1–2 years) and long-term (5–6 years) delivery segments.
Current Storage Levels and Forecast for Next Week Compared to 2019–2024
Key insights: For Week 29 (July 14–20), a storage injection of 33 BCF is expected. The storage level remains confidently above the 5-year median. Injection rates continue on a positive trajectory. If the current supply-demand balance holds, peak 2024 levels may be reached. However, weather and seasonal patterns in late summer and early autumn remain a key limiting factor.
Weekly HDD+CDD Totals Based on Current NOAA Data and Two-Week Forecast Compared to 1994–2024
Key insights: In the current Week 30, despite earlier expectations of a rise in HDD+CDD, weather conditions have stabilized around the 30-year median. Week 31 is forecast to be slightly above the median. The seasonal weather peak appears to have passed, with HDD+CDD values expected to decline further.
Chart note: Box plots show 30-year quantiles (1994–2024); red dots = 2024; green dots = 2025; blue dots = 2025 forecast.
Weekly HDD+CDD Totals by Region Compared to 1994–2024
Key insights: Looking at regional breakdowns for Week 30, there is a notable drop in HDD+CDD in the MOUNTAIN and PACIFIC regions, and a slight exceedance of the upper quartile in the Central regions. Other regions fall within the interquartile range for Weeks 30–31.
Weekly Net Supply/Demand Difference Compared to 2014–2024
Key insights: In the current Week 30, the supply-demand difference has dropped below the median. This is primarily due to decreased exports to Mexico and continued growth in domestic production. LNG exports remained stable.