Peak load growth is exploding, and you can probably guess what’s behind most of it: data centers. (IER)
Grid Strategies’ latest 5-year forecast shows US peak demand climbing 166 GW by 2030, a massive jump from the 38 GW estimate utilities were working with just a couple years ago. About 90 GW of that increase is tied to data center development, with another 30 GW coming from new manufacturing load.
Even if you discount the data center hype—double-counted sites, spec projects, and optimistic developer timelines—the numbers don’t fall by much. Using lower industry estimates (60–65 GW of new data center demand), the US is still looking at its steepest growth curve in decades.
Those forecasts are already reshaping economics. PJM’s capacity payments ballooned from $2.2B in 2023 to $16.1B this summer, driven largely by utilities securing supply for expected AI-era peaks. Some states are proposing new gas plants or off-peak rules for data centers, while others are exploring cost-sharing mandates for grid upgrades.