NERC’s summer reliability outlook is looking sunnier this year. (RTO Insider)
The draft 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment seems to offer a “pretty positive story” compared with last year’s. It flags three subregions at elevated risk, where operating reserves could come up short with above-normal temperatures: MRO-SaskPower, NPCC-New England, and WECC-Northwest. That’s down from six in last year’s assessment.
Why the improvement? MISO, MRO-SPP, WECC-Mexico, and ERCOT are moving from elevated to normal risk after nearly 59 GW of additional resources became available for summer, including solar, batteries, wind, and refurbished nuclear units.
What we’ll be watching: WECC-Northwest. There, rising demand, resource retirements, and delayed planned resources are expected to cut the region’s reserve margin by roughly 5%.