The security of the electric power grid has become a matter of high concern, even with an existential connotation. In fact, it would seem inconceivable to sustain our modern way of life under a prolonged lack of the precious fluid that infrastructure uniquely provides. A definite scenario for such a daunting shortfall may come most likely in the aftermath of either a huge solar geomagnetic storm or from the detonation of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP). The flow of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in the grid, originated by those shocks, has become problematic due to its potentially deleterious impact on major power transformers, including a substantial loss of life.
Three main factors set a sense of urgency to deal with that liability. First, the planet earth is entering a new solar-maximum cycle when the expectancy of a devastating flare, similar to the 1859 Carrington Storm, cannot be reliably minimized; second, the steadfast development of warfare technology capable of delivering, unexpectedly from space, super EMP weapons at damaging high altitudes. Thirdly, the problem of confronting a very limited world supply of such transformers, hurdle aggravated by the absence of USA manufacturers. Under these circumstances, any recovery mitigation based on an ex-post apparatus replacement is bound to face near insurmountable logistic challenges.
Whereas there are knowledge gaps regarding the probability of those threats and the extent of the damage they could cause, a risk-averse posture has finally prevailed within energy stakeholders; in that respect, the US Government decided to give this security matter the top priority it deserves. Indeed, Presidential Executive Orders and Congressional Legislation have been forthcoming in recent years to address the issue. In particular, DOE has become proactive, encouraging the utility industry to consider GIC-blocking devices. To that end, in 2017 a program was established to install such units online.
While the initiative has been well intended, some reservations have come to light since its inception; essentially, the plan advocates the implementation of those devices in a sort of tentative process, resulting in their discrete/sparse grid spotting. Also, the selected units so far, lacking any electric utility record, must be classified as experimental prototypes. A comparison to another public threat, a pandemic, may be useful; for in this case any experimental vaccine, testing at Phase-1 or 2, gets authorized only for application into limited voluntary population samples.
On the other hand, based on extensive research, distinctly abridged in recent technical papers published by engineering teams of the American Electric Power Company, owner of the largest EHV/UHV transmission system in the country, there is an incontrovertible conclusion about GIC mitigation. Important findings reveal that intended blockers, to be effective at all, must be deployed massively. In reality, every device installed changes grid GIC-flow patterns, potentially exacerbating effects at locations left unshielded. The bottom line is that any piecemeal implementation will be prone to unpredictable impacts, setting winners and losers arbitrarily, turning the grid into a dicey GIC rollercoaster. Unluckily, that may be the state our power grid is headed to.
Notwithstanding, the very idea of then considering a full deployment, using thousands of experimental prototypes, would just add to the mix a chancy bridge-too-far of its own (as the case would be for a universal application of vaccines in Phases 1, or 2). Nevertheless, the notion that the ongoing approach may still serve the purpose of attempting a fast-track utility record looks illusory, unworthy of the costs and risks implied in that course of action; even more so when dealing with low-probability disturbances, as geomagnetic phenomena. A vetting process could conceivably take decades to reach consistent results; this is actually happening at present unit installations, with totally empty test recording sheets since setup.
While it looks like all that leaves society in a sort of dooming dilemma, we know for a fact this problem can be timely solved; yet it would require for our stewards to undertake full cognizance of the predicament at hand, undergoing an exhaustive appeal to the proverbial American ingenuity. We still have a time.