Factoring Behind the Meter Generation into the Demand Forecast Algorithm: ISO New England and New York ISO Case Studies

2018-LF-Methodologies-Research-Report-FINAL-EC.pdf
1.67MB

This report aims to achieve the following objectives:

• Describe the current methodologies used by two ISO’s (ISO New England and the New York ISO) to “factor in” the “yin-yang effect” of Behind the Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) supply resources in load forecasting


• Stimulate industry discussion on the need for an industry wide standard methodology for load forecasting that consistently incorporates the impact of BTM PV and establishes agreed semantics and business practices


• Differentiate the “old concept” of Peak Demand, “maximum electric power consumption of all consumers at a given moment in time” and the newly introduced “Peak Power from Grid Resources” (PPGR), peak demand concept, which represents the maximum amount of supply expected from grid resources, hourly


• Introduce the need for an “Estimated Peak Ramp Rate” (EPRR) as a risk factor representing the rate at which the loss/addition of Solar supply can impact demand and the corresponding requirement on Grid Resources ramping response (both increase and decrease) over a defined period (perhaps 5 minute grain) to maintain balance and system frequency