Elon Musk thinks our grid is ill prepared for the electric revolution. Speaking at the Edison Electric Institute’s conference on Monday, the eccentric inventor urged electric utilities to increase their grid demand projections. Here’s what Musk said:
"It's going to be 3x current [load], and I think that 3x number probably happens around 2045ish," he said. "The one thing about exponential growth is it really is counterintuitive and underestimated."
While I can’t knock Musk’s track record of ingenuity and clairvoyance, I also don’t blame those who are sick and tired of the man at this point. However, as the SPGlobal article points out, Musk isn’t the only big name calling for revised demand projections:
“Other industry leaders share Musk's view. On June 12, Bill Gates said he believed that a fully green grid in the US will have a load that's around 2.5 times the size of today's capacity – which was about 1.2 million MW in 2022, according to the American Public Power Association. And Gil Quiniones, CEO of the Illinois power utility ComEd, said that his company's estimations are similar.”
If these billionaires are right, raising projections will be the easy part. Meeting all that extra demand would be the real challenge. Although the issue has attracted long overdue attention in recent years, the fact remains that our grid is gravely hamstrung by stubborn transmission stagnation. Consider this fact highlighted in an Atlantic article published towards the end of 2021: "China has constructed over 18,000 miles of ultrahigh-voltage transmission lines since 2009, whereas the United States has not built any."
The reason for our inadequate transmission capabilities is the multitude of regulations at various levels, which make it exceedingly difficult to initiate projects. The regulatory hurdles faced by transmission developers were emphasized in a report by the nonprofit organization Americans for a Clean Energy Grid last year. The study identified 22 projects that were ready to commence but had been stalled for a decade or more. To expedite such projects, the report's authors suggested streamlining project siting and permitting, introducing a tax credit for transmission projects, and direct investment from the federal government.
However, the flawed regulatory system that hampers progress is possible due to the lack of awareness among both the general public and legislators. Since the release of Al Gore's documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" in 2006, activists, journalists, and left-leaning politicians have consistently emphasized the need for a clean energy revolution. Yet, until recently, very few of these renewable energy advocates voiced concerns about the power infrastructure required to facilitate such a transition. While individuals in the power industry were aware of this issue, their expert knowledge alone was insufficient to drive change.
Fortunately, there appears to be a shift occurring in the public conversation. I started to notice an uptick in articles admonishing the current state of our transmission system, and calling for more lines. A recent article in The Los Angeles Times, for example, makes a well-researched argument for the necessity of lines in the state's ambitious emission cutting campaign:
Here are some notable excerpts from the article:
"The REPEAT Project, led by researchers from Princeton University, reported last year that 80% of the potential carbon pollution reductions enabled by the Inflation Reduction Act—the climate bill signed by President Biden—could be lost if the United States fails to accelerate the expansion of its electric grid."
"One report from the Clean Air Task Force outlines the challenging approval process at the Public Utilities Commission, which involves environmental reviews mandated by the California Environmental Quality Act and can take up to four years. The other report, from consulting firm GridLab and clean energy advocacy group CEERT, mentions that it took 12 years for Edison to complete a project that aimed to transmit thousands of megawatts of wind power from the Tehachapi area in Kern County to the Los Angeles Basin."
The transmission crisis’ newfound fame is a good sign. In a democracy, unlike China’s autocracy, things are much more likely to get done when the public cares. Still, if Musk is right, and I fear he might be, there’s no time to waste.