The world’s climate crisis and civilization’s impact has led to a groundswell of motivation and support behind creative solutions to decarbonize and make more efficient use of our energy resources.
A recent report from analytics firm IdeaSmiths LLC shows that a complete electrification of space heating systems in Texas’s single-family home sector—7.7 million homes, according to the report—would produce significant results in not only reducing carbon emissions in the state, but also cut utility bills and more efficiently use Texas’ strong wind power portfolio.
According to the report, published in September, 75% of Texas’ single-family home sector uses natural gas furnaces or natural gas space heaters to heat their homes, which emit greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide.
In its modeling of different electrification scenarios, IdeaSmiths looked both highly-efficient and typical electric heat pumps in a typical weather year and an extreme weather year. In a blend of all the scenarios, the analysis found that electrification of just the space heating mechanisms in Texas single-family homes would cut annual carbon-dioxide emissions between 5.7 million and 7.5 million metric tons of carbon dioxide—the equivalent to taking 1.2 million to 1.6 million passenger cars off the road or the closure of 1.5-1.9 coal plants.
Of course, this would increase demand on the state’s electricity grid, and the report says concerns over increased carbon emissions resulting from the grid trying to keep up with increased demand are valid, but the issue of emissions will decrease as the grid depends more and more on renewable resources.
Electrification, however, wouldn’t only lead to decarbonization. The move to using electricity to warm a Texas home in the winter seasons would shift peak demand from the summer season—when homeowners are battling the Texas heat with air conditioners—to the winter season. This is key for Texas, as winter is when Texas experiences the highest levels of wind power generation, according to a white paper on the analysis published by the Austin-based Pecan Street Inc. If Texas had a winter-peaking grid, it would be able to more efficiently use its wind power portfolio.
The analysis also showed a cost benefit for the homeowner in energy costs. The typical household could save between $58—for the standard efficiency electric heat pump—and $452—for the maximum efficiency heat pump mechanism—per year.
Although this sounds great, there are several obstacles to reaching a full electrification of one of the country’s largest state’s single-family space heating sector. Cost is an obvious one, but in relation to other states, Texas is among the more better off. According to an American Gas Association study from 2018, net costs for such electrification would be greater in cold weather states and much lower in sunbelt states. However, that same study concludes that electrification is still an extremely expensive route to decarbonization and the up-front costs could mean homeowners do not see a cost benefit for years.
Another clear obstacle is political will for such a progressive, massive change in a generally conservative state where natural gas and oil production are focal economies.
“The natural gas distribution infrastructure and the economic impacts of this transition would require thoughtful management,” the Pecan Street Inc. white paper reads.
Whether this is a feasible pursuit in the coming years remains to be seen. You can read the IdeaSmiths LLC original technical analysis here, and the Pecan Street Inc. white paper here.