Today, a mere google search of the phrase ‘mini-grid potential in sub-Saharan Africa’ gives an overwhelming number of relevant results ranging above 4 million in a search time less than a minute. While this means there is an undeniable and thrilling potential of off-grid solutions backed up with articles, journals, papers, and research with dominating focus on solar mini-grid potential in the region, the paradox lies in why sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) electricity access rates remain the lowest. Especially after the multiple scientific suggestions that the unelectrified population would only have access to sustainable and affordable energy as plotted by the United Nations under the seventh sustainable development goal (SDG 7) if decentralized grids are put in play. Bloomberg and Sustainable Energy for All reported that in 2020 there had been 7,181 mini-grid projects on-going in the Global South with majority of them being in SSA. Evidently, this shows a rise in response to mini-grids and existence of mini-grid friendly policy and regulatory frameworks.
Perhaps the real question is not the number of mini-grids and the penetration of mini-grid technology in SSA but rather what electrification really means in rural and remote communities! The indisputable hindrance of off-grid solutions in previously unelectrified and minimum to no economic-productive communities is the vague prediction of community growth in energy demand after electrification. What implications this has is often not discussed! Should electrification then only be referred to as the existence of a mini-grid close to potential consumers?
Namibia, a country with the least population density in Africa still imports more than 60% of its electricity from South Africa which is itself currently making headlines for its electricity crisis. Considering that the electrification rate of urban areas surpasses the rural regions by 50%, the Government of Namibia (GoN) adopted the mini-grid approach and established off-grid communities from the early 2010s.
In Namibia’s largest off-grid community, Tsumkwe -a remote community located in the North-eastern part of the country, close to the Namibia Botswana border-, off-grid solutions can be traced back to the military camp times when the use of diesel generators was the sole electricity solution. While consumers were not keen about the consumption patterns, once the military moved out, the situation changed. An introduction of a hybrid solar diesel mini-grid in Tsumkwe in 2012 meant adjustment in electricity tariff and availability. Regardless, the citizens needed this electricity access.
Increased economic activity, increase in home owned electrical appliances, change in consumption behaviours as well as new connections (households and businesses) meant that only 80% of the Tsumkwe mini-grid generated power could sustain that demand. Since mini-grid extension has provision to only have as much extension as the inverter can allow, the same applied in the case of Tsumkwe. There was allowance for two extensions in 2014 and 2016 of 1,140 kWh battery capacity and 102 kWp of solar PV capacity (and 1,070 kWh battery capacity) respectively. Nonetheless, by 2022 the extension limit was already reached.
The statement, ‘Tsumkwe is electrified.’ holds true but not to its entirety. So, what further solutions could be available for electrification of rural regions once they have gone dark again despite the fact that mini-grids are existent but insufficient?
The system was designed to have a small battery capacity (24 kWh) to give room for ample analysis of the system’s direct contribution to the PV-diesel mini-grid.
Since the commissioning of the system, the power generation, consumption as well as battery performance have been monitored and yields interesting results. Approximately 52% of generated power is fed back to the main mini-grid with feed-in power capacities of even up to 20 kW. The school has reduced mini-grid dependence by 80% for night-time and early morning demand.
Thomas, the head teacher at Tsumkwe Secondary School testifies that since the system was commissioned no power outage has been experienced. Should this then count as 100% access to electricity?
While this installation was meant for research purposes and not to cover the 20% demand that could no longer be met by the main mini-grid, the obvious fact is that the strain reduced on the grid allows for other community consumers more power consumption and ideally much more storage capacity.
Undoubtedly, access to electricity compels community growth in terms of electricity consumption, but is the mere effort to flood SSA with mini-grids in its very many rural settlements the ultimate answer to electrification?
The team at Technische Hochschule is still carrying out analysis on community consumption behaviours, mini-grid and satellite system interaction but also the longevity of mini-grid solutions in SSA.
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