Ramblings of someone watching the markets: Is energy just a continued widening of the have and have nots? Northeast and California refuse to invest in infrastructure (like Europe) and to no surprise paid over $30/MMbtu or $400/kWh at times in 2022. Commercial customers rolling off contracts of 5 Cents/kWh now seeing 14-17 Cents/kWh. California retail supply floundering as most suppliers cant post credit or risk for the volatility. Feels like a situation that will only get worse with continued addition of renewable energy that is plentiful in times not needed and absent in times of highest demand and dire need. So we get negative wholesale power prices in times of plenty and load shedding during times of need. Fortunately the U.S. has the hydrocarbon production or we would really be in trouble. But even that market is susceptible to the consequences of volatility, with risk premiums on NYMEX natural gas through the roof when Europe trades at $80/MMbtu and then the risk extremely low prices when Europe and the U.S. see low demand from a warm winter. The EIA STEO doesn't even use 95% confidence intervals anymore, they had to narrow it to 80%. The extremes for all energy commodities is getting wider and nobody is thinking about the future consequences.
