Originally posted on Substack.
For over a century, energy has shaped geopolitics: determining who leads, who follows, and who becomes caught in the slipstream of other nations’ industrial ambitions. The West once held dominance in this landscape. The United States led in oil. Europe was at the forefront of nuclear technology. Canada played a key role in pioneering hydro power and offshore engineering. However, within a single generation, these advantages have vanished, first ceded to the Middle East for fossil fuels, and later to China for the renewable-energy supply chain.
Today, China controls more than 80% of the world’s solar manufacturing, 60% of wind-turbine production, and over 90% of global battery processing. In shipbuilding—the industrial foundation for any ocean-energy future—China, South Korea, and Japan together hold about 95% of global capacity, with China now the undisputed leader.
The West has not only lost its manufacturing dominance but also the ability to control how its energy system functions—and with it, its political independence. Energy isn’t just about electrons and molecules; it influences government stability, industry competitiveness, and the sovereignty of democracies.
But there remains one last opportunity—a sector no nation has yet dominated, a technology whose moment has come, and a strategic chance that could restore the leverage the West has lost: Thermodynamic Geoengineering (TG).
The Missed Lessons of the Fossil and Renewable Eras
The West often congratulates itself for “leading” in climate commitments, yet it has outsourced nearly every critical supply chain to the countries that will profit most from the very transition Western policymakers claim to champion.
In the fossil-fuel era, Western nations depended on Middle Eastern oil producers. In the renewable era, they’ve become reliant on Chinese solar, Chinese batteries, and Chinese critical mineral refining. Canada and the U.S., in particular, have allowed domestic industrial ecosystems to erode—while they pledge trillions of dollars to energy transitions led by foreign supply chains.
This is not just a procurement issue; it is a strategic mistake. When a nation stops producing the energy systems that supply its society, its ability to promote its values, maintain stability, and exert influence diminishes. Energy independence is not merely a slogan; it is essential for democratic resilience.
And now, the West is on the verge of repeating the same mistake with the next major industrial frontier: the ocean.
Where the Heat Is — And Why TG Changes the Game
Most of the planet’s excess heat—500 terawatts trapped by greenhouse gases—builds up in the ocean. That heat destabilizes climate systems, raises sea levels, intensifies storms, and threatens food security. Traditional mitigation strategies do not eliminate this heat; they only slow down its accumulation.
TG does something fundamentally different:
It moves heat, relocates heat, and transforms heat into work—such as electricity, hydrogen, desalination, and cooling.
This is not speculative. It is classical thermodynamics scaled to planetary needs.
And importantly, TG is not a mining industry. It is not a chemical industry. It is not a semiconductor industry.
TG is a shipbuilding industry.
The entire system—from heat pipes to hulls, condensers, and hydrogen storage—is a marine-manufacturing effort. That means whichever nation or alliance of nations controls commercial shipbuilding will dominate TG production.
Today, that doesn’t represent the West.
Asia’s Strategic Imperative vs. the West’s Strategic Blindness
China, South Korea, and Japan are not only top players in global shipbuilding. All three have a crucial reason to adopt TG::
· They import fossil fuels at extraordinary cost.
· They face the world’s most dangerous climate-driven heat events.
· Their coastal megacities are uniquely vulnerable to sea-level rise.
· Their industrial foundations depend on stable, predictable access to clean energy and hydrogen.
Meanwhile, what is the West providing them?
Liquefied natural gas.
A declining asset with shrinking margins, volatile price cycles, and—most embarrassingly—periods when LNG drops to negative value.
Imagine attempting to compete in the global energy future by selling outdated fuel to countries eager to skip it.
TG is exactly the kind of innovation China, Korea, and Japan will adopt quickly. It is scalable, marine-based, compatible with hydrogen future developments, and aligned with their industrial strengths.
If the West doesn’t take the lead now, these nations will— not due to ideology but out of necessity.
Why TG Is the West’s Last Great Industrial Opening
Unlike solar, wind, or batteries, TG is a field not yet controlled by any nation. It demands:
· • Large-scale manufacturing capacity
· • Advanced marine engineering
· • Power-electronics expertise
· Hydrogen handling
· Offshore construction
· Ocean thermal modeling
These are exactly the capabilities North America and Europe spent decades building in their shipyards, offshore oil platforms, and naval industries—capabilities they are now allowing to decay.
TG is the first major energy technology in 50 years where the West could— with political will— recommence leadership.
The reason is simple:
TG is primarily an engineering issue, not a mineral-refining challenge. It depends on expertise, design, manufacturing, and systems integration—rather than on critical minerals controlled by foreign supply chains.
It is the closest thing the West has to an industrial reset.
The Cost of Inaction: Losing the Century
If the West doesn’t act, the results are clear.
1. Asia will dominate TG manufacturing, just as China now dominates solar.
2. The West will become an importer of the technology needed to cool its own oceans and stabilize its own climate.
3. Western democracies will lose the ability to set the terms of the next energy century.
4. Policy sovereignty will erode alongside industrial sovereignty.
5. The world’s most powerful tool for climate stabilization will be shaped by others, for others.
This is not the future any democratic nation wants.
But it is the future we will choose—by default—if TG leadership slips away.
The Energy Independence Democracies Need
TG is more than just a climate solution. It also serves as industrial policy, enhances national security, and provides geopolitical stability. It aligns energy production with Western values: transparency, rule of law, environmental stewardship, and open markets.
It is the first technology capable of making ocean cooling and global-scale clean energy profitable at the same time. It is also the only one that combines Western strengths in a way no competitor has yet utilized.
The West might have already lost its edge in solar power. It could have lost its dominance in wind and batteries as well. It might even forfeit LNG markets as Asian countries speed up their transition to hydrogen.
But TG—the ability to transfer heat, generate power, produce hydrogen, and cool the oceans—is still unclaimed territory.
If the U.S., Canada, and Europe want to stay energy leaders in the 21st century, this is their moment.
Miss it, and Western nations might never again dominate their own energy future.