Sec. Wright ~ US Saudi Nuclear Agreement Likely

Saudi Arabia, US on ‘pathway’ to civil nuclear agreement, Energy Sec. Chris Write says

Reuters reports that the United States and Saudi Arabia will sign a preliminary agreement to cooperate over the kingdom’s ambitions to develop a civil nuclear industry, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told reporters in the Saudi capital Riyadh on Sunday 04/13/25.

Wright met with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman earlier on Sunday 04/13/25. He said afterwards that Riyadh and Washington were on a “a pathway” to reaching an agreement to work together to develop a Saudi civil nuclear program

Wright also acknowledged that further details over a memorandum detailing the energy cooperation between Riyadh and Washington would come later this year.

“For a U.S. partnership and involvement in nuclear here, there will definitely be a 123 agreement … there’s lots of ways to structure a deal that will accomplish both the Saudi objectives and the American objectives.”

So far Saudi officials have not agreed to US terms for the 123 agreement which would require that the Saudi kingdom set asides ambitions for enrichment of uranium that could put the country on a path to a nuclear weapons program. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has a long standing position that if Iran developed a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would follow suit.

Prince Mohammed (MBS) has pushed for a deal that would allow domestic uranium enrichment based on his belief that the country has vast uranium resources. Geological prospecting has yielded “severely uneconomic” deposits, according to a report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency

The United Arab Emirates agreed to a 123 Agreement with the US which prohibited uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing. The agreement has been referred to as the “gold standard” for 123 agreements. It opened the door to nuclear cooperation with the US related to the UAE’s completion of four South Korean built 1,400 MW PWRs. The 4th reactor entered revenue service in 2024.

An earlier report by the New York Times on 04/13/25 noted that at the same time the US is currently in talks with with Riyadh, the Trump administration has restarted nuclear talks with Iran in an effort to contain Tehran’s growing nuclear program, after the United States withdrew from a multilateral 2015 agreement in the first Trump presidency.

In the first Trump presidency the US also tried in 2019 to ink a 123 Agreement with Saudi Arabia that allowed uranium enrichment but ran into a brick wall of bipartisan opposition driven in part by outrage over the killing of Jamal Kashoggi who was widely known in high level political circles in Washington politics for his Washington Post columns critical of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia aka MBS.

Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official with extensive experience in the Middle East, and others, pointed at the time that neither MBS nor the Trump administration could be trusted to comply with a 123 agreement, even if the US had one.

“Gold Standard” or not given the awful situation we now have with Kashoggi’s murder and Trump giving MBS a “pass” on it,’ Miller said.

Wright did not mention a wider arrangement which the US had previously been seeking that included a civil nuclear agreement and military security guarantees tied to normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Where Do Things Stand Now?

Nothing has changed in terms of the traffic jam of unresolved issues regarding US support for a Saudi nuclear program. A deal that involves enrichment will face bipartisan opposition in the Senate which must approve any 123 agreement between the two countries. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, while in the Senate, was among those who opposed a 123 Agreement that allows Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium.

The NYT gets it right that the Saudi uranium deposits are “uneconomic” which means they cannot be used as a source of uranium for an enrichment program. This means that any Saudi enrichment program would require the country to import the stuff in the form of yellowcake. It would also need to import uranium enrichment centrifuges and fuel fabrication technology.

Globally, such trade is controlled by the Nuclear Suppliers Group which excludes countries from importing uranium and enrichment technologies from its members if the country is not fully engaged in compliance with the Non Proliferation Treaty. So far, Saudi Arabia has not met that test. It follows that the only place Saudi Arabia could get yellowcake and enrichment technology is Pakistan. While India is also a nuclear power, it is unlikely to want to upend its relationship with the US by aiding Saudi uranium enrichment ambitions.

While China is a potential supplier of commercial nuclear reactors, it is unlikely to want to put Saudi Arabia on a path to nuclear weapons. Neither China, Russia, nor the US, France, and the UK as members of the nuclear weapons club want any new members to it.

It is unclear whether Saudi Arabia would give up its claim to the right to have uranium enrichment even if the US inks a new deal with Iran to curb its nuclear program. More likely, Saudi Arabia would want a permanent deterrent to Iran regardless of which way the diplomatic winds blow.

Linkages between the US support for a nuclear program and diplomatic recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia remain a dead letter so long as PM Netanyahu is in power. The US may proceed with a limited military alliance with Saudi Arabia regardless of the issues related to Israel’s current leadership.

Saudi Civilian Nuclear Plans

Saudi Arabia has plans to build two conventional light water reactors, presumably from South Korea, and an additional 14 similar size units. These units, based on a contract South Korea is expected to sign in the Czech Republic next month, come in at about $6,300/kW or $17.5 billion for the pair.

The next 14 plants, in constant dollars, will cost around $9 billion each for a total of $126 billion. It has been clear since 2014 that Saudi plans for new reactors depend on sustained oil prices at or above $100/bbl. The OPEC basket is at $66/bbl. Trump’s tariff gyrations have unsettled oil markets with no strong trends up or down. One thing is clear, $100/bbl oil does not seem to be a likely price mark in the near term.

The Saud government has having twice postponed making an award to a vendor for the two reactors. The most likely reason is turmoil in the Middle East in Gaza and a desire to see how the incoming Trump administration would deal with its plans. MBS had reportedly held out the hope at one time that the Biden Administration would agree to its terms while Democrats controlled the Senate.

For all these reasons it is likely that Saudi Arabia may set aside plans for the 14 new full size reactors and opt for cheaper small modular reactors (SMRs). A 300 MW unit will come in at about $2 billion. A pay-as-you-go plan, with revenue from the first SMR funding the next could allow Saudi Arabia to build out a fleet of SMRs over a period of 10 to 20 years.

Saudi Arabia has a nonbinding agreement in place with South Korea for a fleet of 100 MW SMRs, but with no immediate plans to move on it. Globally, there are numerous vendors who would likely bid on a Saudi tender for SMRs and would not have to worry about a US 123 agreement.

India’s Experience Building PHWRs Could Be a Solution

India could be a choice for Saudi Arabia to obtain commercial scale, full size, reactors for Saudi Arabia due to its expertise, domestic heavy industry supply chain, and the experience of skilled trades developed building a fleet of CANDU type reactors which do not need a supply of enriched uranium (U235) to operate. Because CANDU reactors operate without enrichment, the nonproliferation threat of this process is removed from consideration.

The CANDU reactor runs on U238 using heavy water as a moderator. Canada operates its reactors on this method and is the global home of expertise for CANDU reactors. Globally, there are 30 CANDU reactors (22 in Canada), and among the are two in China and one more CANDU in Argentina, but all three of Argentina’s reactors are PHWRs. Romania recently announced $ 7 billion in financial support for plans to complete twin 700 MW CANDU type reactors. These number show that the CANDU or Pressurized Heavy Waste Reactor (PHWR) is widely accepted as an alternative to other light water reactor designs.

While India does not have a 123 Agreement with the US, its uranium enrichment capabilities are focused on domestic and military uses. However, India’s domestics resources are not sufficient to meet its needs. India imports its uranium from Kazakhstan and Canada as well as exploiting domestic deposits. Fuel for its Russian built VVERs is sourced from Russia and the spent fuel is to be returned to that country for reprocessing.

Except for the Russian built and fueled VVERs at Kudankulam, almost all of India’s domestically built reactors are PHWRs. India is building 10 700MW PHWRs with plans for seven more, plus a distributed fleet of 220MW PHWRs for various parts of the nation.

India has extensive trade relations with Saudi Arabia which is one of the largest suppliers of oil to India. It is one of the top seven trading partners with Saudi Arabia and the fifth biggest investor in Saudi Arabia.

All of these factors make India a potential partner for a Saudi nuclear energy program which avoid the enrichment issues faced by the US as well as making moot any tilt by Saudi Arabia to China for nuclear reactors that would severely complicate plans for a US defense agreement.

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