Today's FERC meeting on Resource Adequacy is evidence that Capacity Markets are the flashpoint of the energy transition that will be the catalyst for change in the energy industry, IMO. Guessing capacity contributions using ELCC will result in incorrect capacity projections during many hours of the year at various locations, putting stress on grid operators and raising risks to grid reliability and resilience. https://www.ferc.gov/news-events/events/commissioner-led-technical-conference-regarding-challenge-resource-adequacy-rto
A good test case to study the accuracy of ELCC or rMRI is to look at a spring day in New England; How well did the rMRI values reflect the reality of this day of generation output? "Preliminary data shows that power system demand fell to 5,318 megawatts (MW) on the afternoon of April 20, 2025, as temperatures averaged 58°F across the region."
This intertwined relationship of load forecasting and resource adequacy was identified as a concern under the energy transition in 2018 here on Energy Central and options for capacity market reforms were discussed on June 1, 2023 during a PJM meeting: https://www.energycentral.com/energy-biz/post/aoce-will-be-presented-during-may-30-pjm-cifp-resource-adequacy-meeting-iPPO9NsXfVdNf6z
Looking at the original "problem statement" issued by PJM under the CIFP Resource Adequacy initiative shows that mediocre progress has been made on these recommendations, based on the discussions held at FERC over the past two days focusing on Resource Adequacy.