It was once said, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen.” This year’s Munich Security Conference felt exactly like that, a moment where history is shifting very fast, and technology, particularly AI, is evolving so rapidly that Europe is struggling to keep up. The presentations, the conversations, the tone, the inability to make decisions, and the shifting alliances all pointed to one thing: the world order is changing, and Europe is at risk of becoming irrelevant.
US-Europe Relationship is in a Bad Place
It’s clear—the US and Europe are not seeing eye to eye. Many European leaders and diplomats I met were left feeling like they don’t matter much anymore. And the fact that the US is talking to Russia about the Ukraine without Europe in the room says everything. Someone went so far as to say that it feels like the 1938 Munich Agreement all over again: after which UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared “Peace in Our Time,” thinking he had secured peace and stability, but instead, only setting the stage for an even worse disaster: the Second World War.
The real shocker for everyone was Trump’s long call with Putin and the planned meeting between the two leaders in Saudi Arabia. I met with Ukrainian officials, who were feeling as if they had been thrown under the bus by the US. Meanwhile, the European Union and European government leaders all promised their continued support for Ukraine.
Then there’s Greenland. Trump hinted at wanting to “buy” it, and when Denmark said no, he didn’t take it very well. Now there’s talk of economic pressure and even military threats. It’s hard to imagine, in this day and age, a NATO country threatening another NATO country over a piece of land. Unsurprisingly, there was talk at the conference about NATO’s unity cracking.
All of this raises a deeper question: Is America just unreliable because of political polarization and election-cycle flip-flopping, or has something fundamentally broken in the US? Sitting in Munich, watching the confusion among US allies, it felt less like a shift in political priorities and more like a regime change in Washington that is reshaping the very foundations of America’s global role. For Europe, this means increasing uncertainty and the need to find a way to stand on its own and become less dependent on the US.
Energy Security is Under Attack
I was in Munich to talk about energy security—from gas to the power system and of course geopolitics. There’s also a deeper strategic point: Energy security is national security, and the reality is that every single day, the European energy system receives some form of cyberattack. And it’s not just hackers messing around, there are also physical attacks taking place, particularly in the Baltic Sea where we have seen a series of attacks on pipelines, underwater power cables and telecommunications infrastructure.
And then there’s the Irish blackout. Following a brutal storm, a third of the population was recently left without electricity. The Irish grid simply isn’t resilient enough against extreme weather, something every climate model says will only get worse. This incident carries lessons for the rest of Europe. The bottom line: we need to build a power system that can withstand increasing climate risk as well as manmade attacks on the system. Because a world without electricity, as those in the west of Ireland will tell you, is far from nice!
One of the biggest debates at the Munich Security Conference was about energy costs, particularly natural gas prices, which are over three times more expensive in Europe than in the US. There’s also growing concern over whether Europe will have enough gas for next winter, but fears of EU and German government intervention have created the absurd situation where summer gas prices are higher than next winter’s prices! Meanwhile, speculation is swirling that negotiations are taking place to allow Russian gas to flow to Europe via Ukraine again. Officially, EU leaders say this will never happen. But history tells us: never say never!
Europe Needs to Step Up
One thing is obvious, the US does not want to continue doing what it has been doing since the end of World War II and that is defend Europe. There’s thus a growing realization that European countries need to increase defense expenditure and pool resources, especially in military equipment development and procurement. Eventually, Europe may have to work toward its own independent defense force. But this is about more than just defense spending.
Europe also needs to invest in energy security to ensure 24/7 delivery of low-cost energy. Electricity is critical—not just for the digtial lives we all live but also for economic competitiveness, industrial strength, and technological leadership. Electrification is also the way to reduce fossil fuel imports which is Europe’s achilles heel. It is thus critical to push the electrification of transport and industry and to build out, as quickly as possible, renewables such as wind and solar which are locally available resources. We also need to build more power connections between countries and we need to use AI and other digital technologies in the power system which can protect us from cyber and physical attacks while allowing a more efficient use of the grid and the lowering of renewable integration costs; all of which should enable a more resilient, clean and low cost power system.
Europe also needs to step up its activities in AI as the reality is that we are entering an industrial revolution which will have a profound effect on our world. It is both a massive growth opportunity and threat if we do not step up and compete. In fact, this year feels a lot like 1908. That was the year the first Model T car rolled off the Henry Ford production line, triggering an industrial and oil revolution that still underpins the wealth of diverse group of nations such as the US, Germany, Russia, and Japan.
And just like the automobile which needed oil to scale, AI needs an energy source and that is electricity. The Model T moment is the Chinese DeepSeek AI model which has lowered the cost of developing AI models and could enable not only the Chinese to take a big technological leap forward but also the whole world. The reality is that the AI race will reshape our economies and our lives. Innovation and productivity will skyrocket but Europe has to reduce legislative bureaucracy and move very quickly.
Finally, Munich scared me. Or rather, what scared me was how bureaucratic and slow European decision-making remains. The processes simply aren’t fit for the times we live in. Trying to get 27 member states to agree on anything is incredibly difficult. But the Munich Security Conference made one thing clear and that is that without decisive action, Europe will be left behind and worse still, it risks missing the AI revolution altogether, while being left to deal with worsening climate and geopolitical risk.