Can North America’s electric vehicle market keep rolling without government-mandated training wheels?
It’s about to find out. But initial data says, yes, it can, and while removing taxpayer-funded subsidies and delusional government zero-emissions targets will stall EV adoption today, it will benefit from that removal tomorrow.
In short, pre-season is over on Electric Avenue. It’s game on in the EV vs. ICE (internal combustion engine) tech tilt.
Time to find out whether EV is a player.
If Cox Automotive’s Q3 2025 auto industry update is anything to go by, then we have a transportation upstart in the making.
Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights for the U.S.-based automotive services and technology company, reported a record quarter for EVs in the U.S. The 22% sales jump (see attached Cox Automotive chart) compared with 2024’s third quarter helped EVs hit their 10% market share milestone earlier than predicted in the land of gasoline and diesel worship.
Multinational banking and financial services company ING (AMS:INGA) also reported a pre-October rush to buy EVs in the United States. Its numbers show that EVs accounted for 13% of new light-duty vehicle sales.
Much of that Q3 sales action was triggered by looming U.S. federal government clean vehicle incentive changes that ended tax credits of up to US$7,500 for new EVs.and US$4,000 for used EVs on October 1. Those subsidies largely bridged the average US$9,000 price gap between a new EV and its ICE counterpart.
Still, the Q3 sales numbers reported by Cox were another sign on the decarbonization road that EVs are here to stay.
North America’s heavy-duty trucking sector remains in the rear-view mirror on that road, but even it is incorporating electrification options in truck fleets, especially for trucks that typically service routes of less than 250 miles (400 kilometres). In the U.S., that is around 41% of the truck fleet.
And model and price options make business sense in both commercial trucking and passenger car markets. They are EV adoption’s main drivers.
China has proven that.
It is now the centre of the EV sales, manufacturing and technology universe.
EVs account for 50% of the country’s domestic car sales, and sub-luxury models offered by BYD (SHE:002594) and other Chinese automakers dominate the market.
According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global EV Outlook 2025, BYD’s small electric Seagull is one of the best-selling models across all segments.
Nearly 60% of car models for sale in China are EVs. That, according to the IEA, is five times the number available in the United States.
The report notes that there were 785 EV models in 2024 – 15% more than in 2023.
Automakers in the West are belatedly retooling production to service the less profitable but vital non-luxury market.
Tesla’s (Nasdaq:TSLA) new sub-US$40,000 Model Y is the latest example.
The combination of more models, more efficient batteries, and increased EV recharging infrastructure investment is removing many of the impediments to transportation’s energy transition.
However, as the Substack Shipping News has reported, the long-haul heavy-duty truck sector faces a much longer and more challenging road to electrification. Battery size and charging times remain significant freight movement roadblocks.
So, while the IEA notes that global electric truck sales rose for the third consecutive year and topped 90,000 in 2024 – an 80% sales increase compared with 2023 – Class 8 EV trucks make up a minuscule portion of the market.
In the U.S., for example, there are now around 30,000 zero-emission trucks in a commercial fleet of 13 million.
In Canada, zero-emissions trucks accounted for only 7.7% of new vehicle sales in July.
So, the decarbonization road ahead is long, but the bottom line is that the market for EVs has been established – with or without subsidies.
Tesla’s former president of global sales made that point in a recent CNBC interview. He noted, for example, that when Germany abruptly halted its EV subsidies at the end of 2023, the EV market in that country continued to grow, in large part because the manufacturers continued to roll out new EV models.
Jon McNeill added that, with 65 EV model options now available in North America and because “one out of every four cars sold in the U.S. is now electrified … the market is established, and we’re probably ready to have a market that can grow without subsidies.”
ING agrees.
In an October 8 vehicle electrification report it listed three key reasons why it believes removing subsidies will delay but not derail North America’s EV transition:
•There was a growing EV market before government incentives;
•EV prices will continue to decline as lower battery costs increase the overall EV value proposition; and
•EVs have lower total ownership costs over periods of five years or more compared with ICE vehicles.
In the long run, technology, fuel and maintenance costs, and overall driving appeal will determine the record of EVs in the land-based people and goods movement game.
EVs don’t need government help in winning there.
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